Quote Originally Posted by skillahmang:
instead they rather study the line and how vegas is trying to fuck them.
look at the players and the stats. stop studying lines ats. it helps but it has nothing to do with the actual game at hand. its football. these two teams are playing football. not vegas ball.
Vegas is not, nor ever, trying to fuck you.
They want you to bet on tonights game. They want you to bet on tomorrows game, and the day after that, and the day after that, because the more games you play, the harder it is to beat the juice. They dont want to scare you aware from laying juice. Ever. That is how they make money.
They dont give a fuck who wins, and they dont fix games. What they want is even ACTION (not percentage of tickets) on each side, so they can take back the vig for an easy, RISK FREE profit.
If vegas fixes games in order to make money they run a terrible business model. One win or loss could drastically shift their bottom line at the end of the year. They operate using a system where they attempt to turn a consistant profit every game. The risk is EXACTLY ZERO for them, if they take $100 on each side of a -105/-105 split.
they arent predicting winners. gamblers set the lines, not some sort of magical crystal ball. Dont approach the spread as some sort of magical number anywhere relevant to what will actually happen on the field; the number is entirely rooted in PERCEPTION.
What creates a perception? The extrapolation of previous results into a future event, or using silly trends like Team X hasnt covered the spread since january. The books know that. Gamblers know that. This info isnt a secret, they hand sheets with this shit out on it, so that you think to yourself goddam team A sucks ATS in the past, they will suck tonight as well. This is the single biggest mistake (outside of no money mgmt) a gambler can make. When you see a number out there like -7, i can assure you that bettors have already placed wagers on that side or spread, with the betting "trend" in mind, and vegas didnt even sneeze.
when vegas hangs SF-7 they arent saying SF should or will likely win by 7. They are saying YOU GUYS seem to say +7/-7 will get us that juicy vig, so have at it.
As far as over thinking things, you are approaching a number that is set by GAMBLERS, based on HOW MUCH they think a team will/will not win by, with logic and reasoning of who is likely to WIN, based on how these teams performed against COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TEAMS on COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DAYS. that to me is the definition of over thinking things.
By trying to predict exactly what will happen, and then wagering that that outcome will occur, gambler continually fuck themselves. We arent that good, but we somehow find a way to convince ourselves we covered a spread because "we knew Brady would kill buffalo's D' or whatever BS we convince ourselves to believe. The best approach is to look at a line, determine if a wager on one particular side will payout more than the juice+losses will cause you to lose longterm in a given situation, while maintain a proper money management system. If you think that you can beat -110 juice by wagering on tonights -7 road divisional favourite, by all means, however it is my (and my money's) opinion that longterm, ARI+7 +100 is more likely to net you a profit long term in this scenario. Dont let me change your mind, and dont become close minded about your wagers. Place wagers you believe in, not something someone with a pretty write up has sold you. Trying to play merlin will how a game will play out will likely get your bankroll slaughtered. Im not saying prediction models are bankroll busters. On the contrary, a gambler who executes proper money mgmt, can turn a profit by taking advantage of games that dont line up with a number that their model predicts. i.e si1ly has found long term success becuase he wagers on a side when he has a NUMERIC spread advantage, not a gut feeling that team A will win by X points. Im not trying to be a condescending asshole, im trying to warn you, based on the ass kicking i used to take when i first started gambling. I didnt listen to people who would post about the NUMBER instead of THE GAME, and it cost me. You are betting the number, always remember that.
I like to think if i was a defensive coordinator, i wouldn't call the same play against what i THINK is a run situation, if the offensive team has a QB like Brady instead of smith. I would wager a Brady offense is more likely to pass on any given down than a Smith offense, so i need to be slightly more protective against the pass on each play call....So how can you effective extrapolate how a team plays against the patriots compared to playing against the 49ers.
How can you determine the differences between the offensive protection packages Ari used against Min and what they have tonight? You cant. I cant. So lets not overthink it here. We dont know, so we cant rationalize it as a factor in our wagering.
Again, I wasnt trying to be condescending or try to push you away from your wager, im just trying to explain why i thought you were actually over thinking with your rationale. BOL tonight with whatever you go with. Never let someone else tell you what to play.