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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: ***NFL WEEK 9 PLAYS***
shivaseven send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:17:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phillyfranko:

good luck ...but steelers stink on road NYGs crush them and clev will beat Balt by 7 or more ravs average at best... miami beats colts...just my opinion , not a hater...love dallas though and den also


Don' t overlook the fact that NYG as home favorites since 2011 are 4-8 ATS
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#77
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:26:31 PM

Dallas as a dog of 3.5 points or more ATS 8-0

Do the Cowboys bounce back after a heartbreaking loss to their dreaded rivals?

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#78
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:35:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

Isn't there a good trend where if nyg played two straight divisional foes the following game they havent been successful.


Since 2010 this only happened twice and is ATS 1-1 so nothing there
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#79
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:59:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Here is a system favoring the Ravens & since I posted it 2 weeks ago, i will post it again:


Play on a division road favorite off a bye week:  20-3 ATS since 2002, (1-0 ATS this season).........................


This game has me confused................hence me buying back!


Database confirmed! Thanks for the trend. Mucho appreciated.
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#80
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:02:48 PM
RAVENS in this spot SUP 21-2 maybe a ML play
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#81
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:08:45 PM
Harbaugh's Ravens off of the bye ATS 4-0
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#82
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:38:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by shivaseven:

Harbaugh's Ravens off of the bye ATS 4-0

 

Not true

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#83
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:55:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

 

Not true



I ran it through a database and it comes up ATS 4-0, but strangely enough the database has the RAVENS on a bye week in week 2 in 2008. I checked online and found that in 2008 their week 2 game against HOUSTON was postponed. Why - I'm not sure! I have excluded all post season results with this query. Do you have the ATS records? I've got ...

2008  WK 3 BAL - CLE 28-10
2009  WK 8 BAL - DEN 30-7
2010  WK 9 BAL - MIA 26-10
2011  WK 6 BAL - TEX 29-14

Maybe there's a mistake. If so, I'm sorry about that. I just want to circulate clean numbers. I'm checking almost everything I write in these forums. Good Luck!
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#84
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:59:01 PM
Note: the average line in the above games was -4.8 and the average margin of victory was 18 points

I'm excluding all post season results for obvious reasons. Sorry if I didn't clarify that.
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#85
Posted: 10/30/2012 6:51:09 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by shivaseven:



I ran it through a database and it comes up ATS 4-0, but strangely enough the database has the RAVENS on a bye week in week 2 in 2008. I checked online and found that in 2008 their week 2 game against HOUSTON was postponed. Why - I'm not sure! I have excluded all post season results with this query. Do you have the ATS records? I've got ...

2008  WK 3 BAL - CLE 28-10
2009  WK 8 BAL - DEN 30-7
2010  WK 9 BAL - MIA 26-10
2011  WK 6 BAL - TEX 29-14

Maybe there's a mistake. If so, I'm sorry about that. I just want to circulate clean numbers. I'm checking almost everything I write in these forums. Good Luck!

my apologies shiva, I had a game from a couple years ago I was thinking of, but it was their opponent off the bye I was thinking of. My mistake.

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#86
Posted: 10/30/2012 7:31:05 PM

No problem BigNiner

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#87
Posted: 10/30/2012 7:40:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Next up we have the Falcons that are the kings of the world & sitting on top of the mountain where everyone wants to knock them down..............


Falcons vs Dallas

Falcons are 0-10 ATS (0-2 ATS this season) at home off back to back SU wins vs less than .500 opponent..................

Falcons are 5-0 SU in game 8 past 5 years.............

Jason Garrett is 5-0 ATS as a non-division dog..............

Dallas is 8-1 ATS vs the NFC South................

Dallas has gone Under the total in 13 out of 16 years in week 8.................

Trend play: Dallas +4.5 & Under 47.5

_____________________________________________________


Giants vs Steelers


Steelers are 8-5 SU the week before playing on Monday night past 10 years...................

Steelers are 0-6 ATS in November off back to back SU & ATS wins.................. & I like these Steelers this week................

Steelers are 0-9 off a double digit ATS win..................

Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their 8th game past 8 years................

Giants are 1-8 ATS in their 9th game past 9 years.....................

Giants are 1-5 ATS as non-conference favorites of 3 or more points................

Giants are 1-4 ATS after 3 or more straight wins SU...................


Trend play: its a coin flip but I love the Steelers in this spot.................
______________________________________________________


Lions vs Jags


Lions HC Jim Schwartz is 1-9 ATS vs opponent off back to back SU losses..........................

Lions are 2-17 ATS on the road vs non-division opponent off back to back SU losses...............

Lions have gone over the total in all week 8 games past 5 years....................

Jaguars have gone over the total in 4 out of 5 games in game 8 past 5 years.....................



Trend play: Jaguars +3.5
______________________________________________________



Somethings to think about for these match ups.  Posted this info in a couple other threads....

I placed a wager on the Steelers already +3.5 but they do tend to struggle against NFC teams on the road.  Since Tomlin took over they have beaten up on NFC teams at home going 8-1 SU ATS.  During that same period they 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS against NFC teams on the road, splitting the games each year going 1-1.  Their other NFC road match up this season takes them to Dallas in week 15.  

At first look I initially liked Dallas as a play as well for several of the reasons already listed above.  I have not played them straight up but did include them +10.5 in a teaser play.  

Upon second look check the Falcons results the week before they play the Saints.  

Atlanta's record the week before they play the Saints since Smith took over as head coach...

4-0 the past four meetings, 6-2 since Smith took over as HC. 

Falcons were swept by the Saints last year and in the second match up smoked 45-16.  They have shown to be focused and ready to play the week before they play the Saints.  I agree that Dallas is in a good spot and have things in their favor but considering the Falcons situation that might not be enough to make a standard play on Dallas.  Just another aspect to factor in this match up.

In the 2 games the Falcons lost previous to playing the Saints they went on to lose those match ups with NO.  In the other 6 wins previous to playing the Saints the Falcons have followed those wins up with a 2-4 SU ATS record the next week vs. NO.

Something to look at for week 10 is if Atlanta wins or loses this match up with Dallas.  If they lose straight up to Dallas then history leans with them losing @ NO in week 10.  If the Falcons win and cover vs Dallas then I would look to play on the Falcons when they visit NO, especially since that would be their first meeting since getting swept last year and the embarrassment in week 16. 
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#88
Posted: 10/30/2012 7:43:21 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by shivaseven:

Harbaugh's Ravens off of the bye ATS 4-0

 

ravens have big problems on defense - i don't see their opponents fearing them anymore. i think ravens lose su

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#89
Posted: 10/30/2012 8:02:56 PM
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#90
Posted: 10/30/2012 8:11:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tdsONE:


Werent you gonna stop posting if the Jets ML didnt come thru? Jerk off. This is the NFL No Fuckin Locks fool. Tony person and the friggin Cowgirls didnt give away anything... they suck. Only a degenerate loser like you would lose an imaginary $26K on the cowboys. You are full of garbage. If you had $20K to bet on games you would not post the stupid garbage you do. I have been on this site ofr 10 friggin years and you are by far the biggest hand job that posts his fake $$ picks that ever posted on this site. 

One piece of advice: KILL U R SELF


HAHAHA amazing
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#91
Posted: 10/30/2012 8:25:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by choiOi:

 

ravens have big problems on defense - i don't see their opponents fearing them anymore. i think ravens lose su



Choi Oi: Don't you think the Browns problems on offense counterbalances this?
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Posted: 10/30/2012 9:20:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Dallas receiver Dez Bryant fingers tips cost me $26k, yes, that was the difference between winning 26k & losing -600 for the week................but thats gambling...........Dallas handed the Giants that win thanks to Romo's picks & turnovers (6 in all)

49ers -7 (-110)  $2,200 to win $2,000  (Pending)

49ers -6.5 (-125)  $1,250 to win $1,000  (Pending)

Tampa +16.5, Dallas +11, Cards +16.5...........$600 to win $500 (Pending)

_______________________________________________________



Ravens -3 (-120)   $1,200 to win $1,000  

Panthers +3.5 (-110)  $1,200 to win $1,000  (will also be on the ML)


 

Prime- time u rock dude!!!

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#93
Posted: 10/30/2012 9:40:08 PM
theKCco_op:

You wrote:

Something to look at for week 10 is if Atlanta wins or loses this match up with Dallas.  If they lose straight up to Dallas then history leans with them losing @ NO in week 10.  If the Falcons win and cover vs Dallas then I would look to play on the Falcons when they visit NO, especially since that would be their first meeting since getting swept last year and the embarrassment in week 16.

I can't say that I agree with this part of your analysis. If the Falcons lose to Dallas, I don't think it will impact their performance in New Orleans. Either way, win or lose, Atlanta will go into NOR focused. Let's face it NOR and ATL are going in completely different directions. NOR defense stinks. Ryan is doing a great job distributing the ball to all  his weapons. Dirk Koetter, ATL's new offensive coordinator has opened up their vertical passing game and mixed in a lot of screens to keep the pressure off of Ryan. I'm not sure if the Falcon's offense is as good as it looked last Sunday because I thought the Eagles completely stank on defense - no pressure and a lot of blown coverages. Let's face it - ATLANTA would love nothing more to put a nail in NOR coffin especially after being beaten by the Saints in both matches last year. We will see and good luck on the weekend.
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:02:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Dallas receiver Dez Bryant fingers tips cost me $26k, yes, that was the difference between winning 26k & losing -600 for the week................but thats gambling...........Dallas handed the Giants that win thanks to Romo's picks & turnovers (6 in all)

49ers -7 (-110)  $2,200 to win $2,000  (Pending)

49ers -6.5 (-125)  $1,250 to win $1,000  (Pending)

Tampa +16.5, Dallas +11, Cards +16.5...........$600 to win $500 (Pending)

_______________________________________________________



Ravens -3 (-120)   $1,200 to win $1,000  

Panthers +3.5 (-110)  $1,200 to win $1,000  (will also be on the ML)


Hey prime wat do you think about this parlay in a 6-point teaser?

1. Washington over 40.5

2. Houston over 41.5

3.Carolina +9

4.Dallas+10

5.Pittsburgh+ 9

6.Jacksonville +9.5

1.

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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:22:15 PM
QUOTE

hey PTB, nevermind those loser hater. web admin, please lock those guys and ban them from the forum.

 

Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

^^^^^^^^^



You will be boxed very soon, I see it coming & another thing is, you gotta stop smoking crack because I actually middled that Monday night game...................I had the Teaxns ML in parlays & then I took the Jets plus the points, hence I middled it so you must have me confused with your boyfriends plays, so I suggest you go back to his bedroom & play with him some more.......................
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#96
Posted: 10/30/2012 10:24:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by shivaseven:



Choi Oi: Don't you think the Browns problems on offense counterbalances this?

 

it does...but i think this game is a coin flipped. gun to my head..i'll take the home dog, ravens got rolled pretty hard and they beat kc on the road by how many pts? ya...go look at that.

i am laying off this game, but just giving my insight. gl

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#97
Posted: 10/30/2012 11:01:01 PM
Anyone playing a 5 team parlay is the degenerate of all degenerates!!!  A.C O'Leary 10* play Tampa Bay +1
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#98
Posted: 10/31/2012 12:36:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:






Lions HC Jim Schwartz is 1-9 ATS vs opponent off back to back SU losses..........................

Lions are 2-17 ATS on the road vs non-division opponent off back to back SU losses...............




These are awesome finds PTB, thanks.  Looks like Detroit was already in this same situation already once this year against Tennessee as similar road favorites of -3.5.  I'll have to bet Jacksonville now for the third week in a row.
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Posted: 10/31/2012 12:46:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shivaseven:



Don' t overlook the fact that NYG as home favorites since 2011 are 4-8 ATS


Giants are also 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU in their last 4 games right after playing the Cowboys.
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#100
Posted: 10/31/2012 12:50:06 AM
Adding:



Titans +3 (+110)  $1,000 to win $1,100
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