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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Giants @ 49ers...17-3-2 ATS System in play
Cool_Arrow send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:39:38 PM
Guys - 

Long time viewer but I don't play/post often. I'm a numbers guy and remember key angles that I think can provide an edge. A few years back I remember the poster MrBator who posted a trend of teams who win back to back games by scoring 30+ points and while also allowing less than 10 points. This is hard to do two games in a row much less 3 games in a row! After doing this twice, in their third game these teams have significantly failed to cover at a staggering rate. Credit goes to Mr. Bator's old post (scroll to the bottom) for this history starting from 1999 - 2009. Teams in this situation went 3-14-1 ATS during this time period.

I did some digging to see how this worked in 2010 and 2011 and have the following additional games:

In 2010 the Green Bay Packers beat the Cowboys 45-7 then beat the Vikings 31-3. There was a bye week sandwiched between those games but their next game they lost to Atlanta 20-17. This was a push as Atlanta was a 3 point favorite. 

In 2010 the New England Patriots beat the NY Jets 45-3 then beat the Bears 36-7. Their next game they beat the Aaron Rodgers less Packers 31-27 but didn't cover the 14 point line. 

In 2010 the San Diego Chargers beat the Chiefs 31-0 then beat the 49ers 34-7. Their next game they lost SU as an 8 point favorite to the Bengals who had nothing to play for 34-20. 

In 2010 the New England Patriots beat the Bill 34-3 then beat the Dolphins 38-7 to close out the season. Their next game was the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost SU as a 9 point favorite to the NY Jets 28-21. 

I didn't find any such scenarios in 2011. 

All said with the research of Mr. Bator combined with the 2010 additions teams are 3-17-2 ATS given this criteria. 

Why am I posting this now? Two weeks ago the 49ers beat the Jets 34-0 and followed that up last week with a 45-3 blowout of the Bills. No doubt that they are playing great ball and they have had this game circled on their calendar for a long time but as a 5.5 point dog I am loading up on the Giants this week.  

BOL to you guys and if you are out there MrBator thank you for your past write-ups they have been very helpful!
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#2
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:43:24 PM
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#3
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:48:02 PM
good stuff.. probably gonna tail on this one...
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#4
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:03:04 PM

 

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#5
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:07:49 PM
mr bator is a legend 
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#6
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:11:16 PM

Good stuff thanks for the insight..

BOL  

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#7
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:28:10 PM
Good job, Cool_Arrow.   I remember that angle, now that you mention it.   I sort of liked the Giants anyway this week, now I like 'em more

GL 
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#8
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:32:59 PM
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#9
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:58:45 PM
Go gmen
Posted using a mobile device.
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#10
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:18:07 PM
This is the good stuff....Thanks to Bator  And yourself for remembering.
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#11
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:23:17 PM
GMen
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#12
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:24:06 PM
Trust the system
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#13
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:27:10 PM
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#14
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:29:28 PM
dam I am on the opposite side op bol though this week.
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#15
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:39:42 PM
Interesting numbers indeed. I am curious to know however if any of those criteria fitting third games were against the team that defeated the trending team in the conference championship game the season before? Or even against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs the season before for that matter?

My inital lean for this game was/is Giants with the points as posted in my week 5 thread so i'm not bashing the trend just asking, because to me the trend suggests after two very easy wins the team came out a little flat for the third game. This is relevant because I think we can all agree that the Harbaugh led 49ers will be ready to play the Giants come Sunday night.


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#16
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:56:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Interesting numbers indeed. I am curious to know however if any of those criteria fitting third games were against the team that defeated the trending team in the conference championship game the season before? Or even against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs the season before for that matter?

My inital lean for this game was/is Giants with the points as posted in my week 5 thread so i'm not bashing the trend just asking, because to me the trend suggests after two very easy wins the team came out a little flat for the third game. This is relevant because I think we can all agree that the Harbaugh led 49ers will be ready to play the Giants come Sunday night.



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#17
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:03:27 PM
Guys -

Not sure why the link didn't work but here is original post from MrBator. 

http://spaces.covers.com/MrBator

@ Polar_Bear - I don't believe any of these games below would fit your trend of being knocked out of the conference championship game. No doubt the 49ers will be ready to play but will they be 6 points ready? I see a close game either way. 


Here are the games he mentioned in addition to the 2010 games I found:

The St. Louis Rams in 1999 beat the Falcons 35-7, then beat the Bengals 38-10, and then beat the 49ers 42-20.

The Jacksonville Jaguars in 1999 beat the Bengals 41-10, then beat the Falcons 30-7, and then beat the Ravens 6-3 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).

The Kansas City Chiefs in 1999 beat the Ravens 35-8, then beat the Chargers 34-0, and then lost to the Colts in Indianapolis 25-17.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2000 beat the Bears 41-0, then beat the Lions 31-10, and then lost at home to the Jets 21-17.

The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2000 beat the Browns 48-0, then beat the Cardinals 44-10, and then lost 17-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati.

The St. Louis Rams in 2001 beat the Dolphins 42-10, then beat the Lions 35-0, and then beat the Giants at home 15-14 (but didn't cover as a 14.5 point favorite).

The Kansas City Chiefs in 2002 beat the Cardinals 49-0, then beat the Rams 49-10, and then lost to the Broncos in Denver, 31-24.

The Green Bay Packers in 2003 beat the Raiders 41-7, then beat the Broncos 31-3, and then beat the Seahawks in a wild card playoff game at home in overtime 33-27 (but didn't cover as a 6.5 point favorite).

The Indianapolis Colts in 2004 beat the Bears 41-10, then beat the Lions 41-9, and then beat the Titans at home 51-24 (this game got out of hand because the frightened Titans kept trying onside kicks and none of them worked....they also faked a punt and that didn't work either).

The Seattle Seahawks in 2005 beat the Eagles 42-0, then beat the 49ers 41-3, and then beat the Titans in Tennessee 28-24 (but didn't cover as a 7-point favorite).

The Chicago Bears in 2006 beat the Seahawks 37-6, then beat the Bills 40-7, and then beat the Cardinals in Arizona 24-23 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite....."They are who we thought they were!")

The Dallas Cowboys in 2007 beat the Bears 34-10, then beat the Rams 35-7, and then beat the Bills in Buffalo 25-24 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).

The Baltimore Ravens in 2008 beat the Eagles 36-7, then beat the Bengals 34-3, and then beat the Redskins at home 24-10 (as a 6.5-point favorite).

The Minnesota Vikings in 2009 beat the Seahawks 35-9, then beat the Bears 36-10, and then lost to the Cardinals in Arizona 30-17 (as a 3-point favorite).

The Indianapolis Colts in 2009 beat the Titans 31-9, then beat the Rams 42-6, and then beat the 49ers at home 18-14 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).

The Baltimore Ravens in 2009 beat the Lions 48-3, then beat the Bears 31-7, and thenlost in Pittsburgh 23-20 (pushing as a 3-point underdog).

The New England Patriots in 2009 beat the Titans 59-0, then beat the Buccaneers 35-7, and then beat the Dolphins 27-17 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).

The Green Bay Packers in 2009 beat the Seahawks 48-10, then beat the Cardinals 33-7, then returned to Arizona one week later for a wild card playoff game and lost 51-45 in overtime (as a 2.5-point favorite).

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#18
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:21:07 PM
i think this is a fg game either way.... id be inclined to take the points...
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#19
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:24:07 PM
hmmm, interesting angle... if the assumption is finding the let-down spot, I really think the 49ers are not going to fall victim to this.  If anything, the Giants are in the let-down position, week off a big win, "Super Bowl hangover" and having knocked out the 49ers last year, travel to west coast etc, gut tells me the Giants are the team to flop?  I appreciate your insight and can't make a call either way, passing on this one, better plays to be had this week.  Good Luck and hope this cashes for you guys!  I'll be an innocent bystander in this one!
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#20
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:37:00 PM
I'll add a stat that goes against this system that has a 17-3-2 ATS record

Jim Harbaugh is 17-5-1 ATS as HC of the Niners.   

I'm backing the G-men, but only for 1 unit

GL
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#21
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:18:49 PM

In 2010 the Green Bay Packers beat the Cowboys 45-7 then beat the Vikings 31-3. There was a bye week sandwiched between those games but their next game they lost to Atlanta 20-17. This was a push as Atlanta was a 3 point favorite. 

 

In 2010 the New England Patriots beat the Bill 34-3 then beat the Dolphins 38-7 to close out the season. Their next game was the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost SU as a 9 point favorite to the NY Jets 28-21

 

 

 

I don't count these games because of the bye weeks involved.




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#22
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:19:09 PM

Since 1999, NFL teams are 3-16-1 ATS the week after winning consecutive games in which they scored 30 or more points in each while allowing 10 points or less in each (with no bye weeks involved). 

 

If the team off a pair of monster blowout wins allowed no more than 10 points combined in their two big wins, they went 1-10-1 ATS the following week. 

 

If the team off a pair of monster blowout wins scored 40 points or more in at least one of the two big wins, the following week they went 5-4 SU & 0-8-1 ATS.

 

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#23
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:20:39 PM

The enormously popular and award-winning (in my own mind) thread Cool Arrow is referencing is this one:

 

 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100920266

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#24
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:22:48 PM
If the Niners can overcome this situation and cover the spread this Sunday against the Giants, go ahead and pencil them in for a spot in the Super Bowl.
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#25
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:27:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBator:

The enormously popular and award-winning (in my own mind) thread Cool Arrow is referencing is this one:

 

 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100920266




Thanks for the comments and for all of the work that you did to come up with the numbers and history. Looks like you agree with being on the Giants this week! 
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