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Prop play to cut down the juice

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Views: 234
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Posted: #1

Texans -3 first downs (-110)

I definitely see the Texans winning. The problem is no matter how bad the Jets are this is a Monday night home dog with a big line. How many times have we seen a horrid team keep it close or win?

I definitely don't think Jets win, but I could see it being a Houston witn by only 7 or something just short of the line. But taking the Houston ML means a lot of juice.

Feeling very good about a Texan win, them being a favorite by 9, and the Jets' horrible offense, I think taking this bet presents the best way to profit off this game.

Anyone agree or disagree?

BOL to all

 

 

 
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Posted: #2
Thats a great prop.  Total lock in my opinion.  I hope my book puts it up before game time. 
 
 
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Posted: #3

Thanks. Yeah I really like it because Houston can grind out long drives with their run game, jets can't even move the ball at all. Houston is 45.2% converting on 3rd down. Jets are a lowly 39.3%.

Houston AVG 22 first downs a game vs Jets 17. Now Houston averages that and played some strong (not great) Defenses. Jets also played some very good defenses, but their first game was against Buffalo. Take the 21 first downs they had that game and they are averaging below 17. Not to mention they put up that kind of score against Buffalo and still only had 1 more first down than Buffalo.

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