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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Arizona Cardinals @ Rams Analysis
Jfox6546 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Top Bet |
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#1
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:05:03 PM
Tired of all the damn covers blood bath post and other bs people spew out. SOO I'm just going to put some of my analysis/opinions on this thread

1. Arizona is LUCKY to be 4-0
I know a win is a win in the NFL, but eventually the tides will turn and a team will be exposed for what they really are. In this case it's the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are an 8-8, 9-7 team in my opinion. (time will tell). and IF they make the playoffs they will be one and done trust me. They have a shaky run game and a revolving door at QB between Skelton and Kolb. When you have 2 QB, you don't have any QB (just look at the Jets). Now lets take a look at their 4 wins this year.

2. Three Home Games

First, 3 of these were at home. Their only road game they won, they lucked out by an uncharacteristic FG miss by Gostowski that shouldve handed them a loss. Brady and company were also surprised in this one and out of rhythm. If they played this game again next week, it wouldn't even be close trust me.

Next, their first game of the season they played a rookie QB in his FIRST EVER START, and got a goal line stand at the end of the game. This one could've easily been a loss as well.

3. Seriously?!?!
Their last win, they let up 450+ passing to a ANOTHER ROOKIE QB at home and won a game they got outplayed in for 3 and a half quarters. Brain Hartline!!, may I repeat BRIAN HARTLINE ALSO HAD 250 YARDS RECEIVING. GIVE ME A BREAK!!

Looking back at this they could easily be a 2-2 or 1-3 team right now. And like I said before, these wins usually even out in the end. With deserved losses. They won't be fortunate to comeback or hold on against a rookie QB every week.

4. Overrated Defense
Now I recognize they have a decent defense but in no means am I willing to put them in the top 5 or even top 10 category until they show some consistency. Again they have played 3 home games and 2 rookie QB.

The Rams on the other hand have had 2 tough road losses. @ Chicago, and @ Detroit in a game they lost on the final drive. So at 2-2 this team could be easily 3-1. They had impressive wins at home against a sound defensive team in Seattle, and against RG3 and companies high powered offense. That being said I rate the Cardinals and Rams as pretty evenly matched and I believe they will end up with similar records.  With home field advantage on their side, and a chance to knock of one of the only undefeated teams left in Arizona, I'm looking for St. Louis to come out on fire Thursday Night. I won't be surprised if they dominate this game actually. I have not locked in any plays yet, but I am leaning Rams here large.

Let me know what you think.

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#2
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:10:24 PM
jfox how you doin man?  Absolutely love this and already on it, glad we are on the same side this thursday and I think you are spot on.  At least that is exactly how I feel.  GL man
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#3
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:14:21 PM
Also if you look back at the Rams win against Seattle at home, I think its slightly more impressive than the Cardinals win at home against Seattle. Here's why...

Arizona got Russel Wilson in his first start ever, although he played poorly at the Rams too. The Rams win was more impressive in my opinion and they controlled the game more soundly than the cardinals win.  They turned Wilson over Multiple time and limited mistakes.  As said before these two team are pretty evenly matched, but the Rams have a big advantage being at home, and they would love to knock off one of the remaining 4-0 teams. The Cardinals have a disadvantage until they lose one because they will get every teams BEST effort. Nobody s surprised by them anymore. They are now the hunted instead of the hunter.
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#4
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:16:13 PM
They to Chicago on the final drive?  Then a lucky win against the redskins!  Lost to Detriot who obviously are weak this season!  Seattle win to me was more situational, I didn't watch the game but was gonna play Seattle!  But considered the fact they had a rough week!
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#5
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:17:38 PM
I meant lost to Chicago on the final drives??
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#6
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:19:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bonshizzle:

They to Chicago on the final drive?  Then a lucky win against the redskins!  Lost to Detriot who obviously are weak this season!  Seattle win to me was more situational, I didn't watch the game but was gonna play Seattle!  But considered the fact they had a rough week!

GL with your betting career
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#7
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:22:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kn0wn:

jfox how you doin man?  Absolutely love this and already on it, glad we are on the same side this thursday and I think you are spot on.  At least that is exactly how I feel.  GL man


Yea I am sick of people saying the majority of people are on "this team", so I am going to fade that. Like covers controls the entire public betting.  But in reality that is not the case and they end up going with a public consensus pick anyway, not even knowing what they are talking about. Its very easy to look at what they public is betting. GEEZ!!! and in this case the public is heavy on the Cardinals.

But yes I def think the Rams are the play. I can honestly look back here and say when I first started sports betting around 7-8 years ago, I didn't know what I was doing and would have been all over the Cardinals here. The line would have looked to good to be true and there went all my money.  I've learned my lesson many times over since then lol. Rams is the pick for sure and hold the most value. I'm going to hold off until tmrw to see if the line moves more favorably to them. Which I think it may. Could even hit 2.5 or 3, and I'll be all over that. Currently my book has it at Arizona -1.5 (-125)

 
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#8
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:23:28 PM
Yea I was 4-0 last sunday thank you for your concern!!
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#9
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:25:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bonshizzle:

I meant lost to Chicago on the final drives??


I obviously meant Detroit here. Re- Read it, to me it seems clear that I'm talking about Detroit with the loss on the final drive. Chicago was a solid beat down. Chicago is 3-1 and only loss to Packers @ green Bay. Other than that Chicago has won the other 3 in pretty comfortable fashion.
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#10
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:26:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bonshizzle:

Yea I was 4-0 last sunday thank you for your concern!!


link to your post showing your picks please
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#11
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:30:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jfox6546:



I obviously meant Detroit here. Re- Read it, to me it seems clear that I'm talking about Detroit with the loss on the final drive. Chicago was a solid beat down. Chicago is 3-1 and only loss to Packers @ green Bay. Other than that Chicago has won the other 3 in pretty comfortable fashion.

oh 4 bets?? oh one day?? Wow that must mean your pretty good. lol not attacking you just saying 4 bets doesnt mean garbage. but dont get me wrong I am most definately not concerned.  either way GL on whatever side you take 
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#12
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:32:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jfox6546:



Yea I am sick of people saying the majority of people are on "this team", so I am going to fade that. Like covers controls the entire public betting.  But in reality that is not the case and they end up going with a public consensus pick anyway, not even knowing what they are talking about. Its very easy to look at what they public is betting. GEEZ!!! and in this case the public is heavy on the Cardinals. 

But yes I def think the Rams are the play. I can honestly look back here and say when I first started sports betting around 7-8 years ago, I didn't know what I was doing and would have been all over the Cardinals here. The line would have looked to good to be true and there went all my money.  I've learned my lesson many times over since then lol. Rams is the pick for sure and hold the most value. I'm going to hold off until tmrw to see if the line moves more favorably to them. Which I think it may. Could even hit 2.5 or 3, and I'll be all over that. Currently my book has it at Arizona -1.5 (-125)

 

min has it at 1.5 -117 so idk but i hope for you that it does move in your favor.  I just locked it in right away because i was worried bookmakers might have overadjusted the line because of perception and thought it might move the other way 
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#13
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:32:47 PM
How bout the win over the redskins?
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#14
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:33:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jfox6546:



link to your post showing your picks please

the kid doesnt have a link he only has 3 posts and they have all been in this thread lol
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#15
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:36:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kn0wn:


the kid doesnt have a link he only has 3 posts and they have all been in this thread lol


I know haha,
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#16
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:36:23 PM

I was leaning Zona from the start but you bring up some valid points with the Rams. This game will come down to Jackson running the ball down Zona's throats.

74% of the public are on Zona according to vegasinsider - think i'll play the Rams (but closer to kickoff to get hopefully +3).

GL!

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#17
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:37:28 PM
i would be very suprised if the line moves to 3 but hopefully it does!!!
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#18
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:38:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bonshizzle:

How bout the win over the redskins?


Research it for yourself bro. I've put enough of my opinion here.lol.  I can tell you this tho... I live in MD and watch every single Redskins game, so I've seen what this Rams team is capable of.  GL with whatever you take. hopefully u get to 5-0


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#19
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:41:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kRaZeEpLaYa:

I was leaning Zona from the start but you bring up some valid points with the Rams. This game will come down to Jackson running the ball down Zona's throats.

74% of the public are on Zona according to vegasinsider - think i'll play the Rams (but closer to kickoff to get hopefully +3).

GL!



Yea I hope it moves to 3 or close to it. If it doesn't move that way, we don't risk losing too much. I mean virtually no difference when its moving from 1 to 1.5 or 2. I may just go with Kn0wn in that case and take Rams ML, better value there. GL to us!
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#20
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:41:40 PM
That's cause I've only been reading the post on here for the past couple of years but never posted!  I just been trying to learn as much as I could!  I don't bet online, I don't need to prove anything!  Maybe your pick is right whose now!  Maybe my observation of the season so far is misguided I don't know!  But I'm just stating my opinion on what I've seen so far and I don't like how Rams been giving up do many points!  That's not defense to me!
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#21
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:51:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bonshizzle:

That's cause I've only been reading the post on here for the past couple of years but never posted!  I just been trying to learn as much as I could!  I don't bet online, I don't need to prove anything!  Maybe your pick is right whose now!  Maybe my observation of the season so far is misguided I don't know!  But I'm just stating my opinion on what I've seen so far and I don't like how Rams been giving up do many points!  That's not defense to me!


It can be very misguiding to look at points allowed. For example the Rams are actually letting up LESS yards per game than Arizona. That's also just a stat and has little meaning. It's more of a collection of stats and situations you need to look at when rating the strength of these teams, and more specifically their defenses. Hope that helps. GL
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#22
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:56:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jfox6546:



It can be very misguiding to look at points allowed. For example the Rams are actually letting up LESS yards per game than Arizona. That's also just a stat and has little meaning. It's more of a collection of stats and situations you need to look at when rating the strength of these teams, and more specifically their defenses. Hope that helps. GL

that was actually nice of you to help straighten him out lol

but yea until it gets to 3 I think ML is the best value but it will be post game soon enough and we will know what was the right choice then. lol
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#23
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:58:30 PM
yea always looks good, until you lose some. then you're like WTF happened lol
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#24
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:23:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jfox6546:

Tired of all the damn covers blood bath post and other bs people spew out. SOO I'm just going to put some of my analysis/opinions on this thread

1. Arizona is LUCKY to be 4-0
I know a win is a win in the NFL, but eventually the tides will turn and a team will be exposed for what they really are. In this case it's the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are an 8-8, 9-7 team in my opinion. (time will tell). and IF they make the playoffs they will be one and done trust me. They have a shaky run game and a revolving door at QB between Skelton and Kolb. When you have 2 QB, you don't have any QB (just look at the Jets). Now lets take a look at their 4 wins this year.

2. Three Home Games

First, 3 of these were at home. Their only road game they won, they lucked out by an uncharacteristic FG miss by Gostowski that shouldve handed them a loss. Brady and company were also surprised in this one and out of rhythm. If they played this game again next week, it wouldn't even be close trust me.

Next, their first game of the season they played a rookie QB in his FIRST EVER START, and got a goal line stand at the end of the game. This one could've easily been a loss as well.

3. Seriously?!?!
Their last win, they let up 450+ passing to a ANOTHER ROOKIE QB at home and won a game they got outplayed in for 3 and a half quarters. Brain Hartline!!, may I repeat BRIAN HARTLINE ALSO HAD 250 YARDS RECEIVING. GIVE ME A BREAK!!

Looking back at this they could easily be a 2-2 or 1-3 team right now. And like I said before, these wins usually even out in the end. With deserved losses. They won't be fortunate to comeback or hold on against a rookie QB every week.

4. Overrated Defense
Now I recognize they have a decent defense but in no means am I willing to put them in the top 5 or even top 10 category until they show some consistency. Again they have played 3 home games and 2 rookie QB.

The Rams on the other hand have had 2 tough road losses. @ Chicago, and @ Detroit in a game they lost on the final drive. So at 2-2 this team could be easily 3-1. They had impressive wins at home against a sound defensive team in Seattle, and against RG3 and companies high powered offense. That being said I rate the Cardinals and Rams as pretty evenly matched and I believe they will end up with similar records.  With home field advantage on their side, and a chance to knock of one of the only undefeated teams left in Arizona, I'm looking for St. Louis to come out on fire Thursday Night. I won't be surprised if they dominate this game actually. I have not locked in any plays yet, but I am leaning Rams here large.

Let me know what you think.

Good stuff! Like Rams as well GL!
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#25
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:44:44 PM
Let's get it with the rams. 

GL Known & JFox


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