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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** Best Play of the Month *** It's Hammer Time!
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:14:16 AM
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams

Up 16.3 units over the past 7 days and won big with the Rams as my best play of the week on Sunday but I like the Rams even more this week. This will most likely be my 2nd biggest bet of the year (been eyeing a play in week 8 since the start of the season).
Anyhow, I love the Rams in this spot. Teams do EXTREMELY poorly on the road as a favorite after winning a home game in
overtime. The 4-1 Vikings who just beat the 49ers and Lions only loss this year was on the road to the 1-3 Colts after a week 1 overtime victory at home. It happens time and time again as overtime victories at home are very draining emotionally.

To add to this, the Cardinals have to travel 1,229 miles on a short week while the Rams have been at home for the past 10+ days.

Also, if anyone saw my big play on the Rams for week 4, I posted that Division opponents were 19-0 ATS and SU if they got swept the year before and the line is 4 or less. That trend is now 20-0 ATS and 20-0 SU and 2-0 this year (Rams vs Seahawks, Panthers vs Saints). This situation applies once more this week as the Rams play the Cardinals.

You won't find a better situation than this all month. Taking the Rams ML as well as them in a couple teasers for now but will be adding Rams at an alternative line once my book releases them. Probably will be -3.5 (+185) or near that. Getting in on this early as I see the Rams being favorites by kickoff.

138150343-110/1/12 2:08am$405.00$300.00Pending2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7½fb & 5½bk




Pending10/4/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  302 St. Louis Rams +8½ * vs Arizona Cardinals 




Pending10/7/12 1:00pm  NFL Football  412 Washington Redskins +10½ * vs Atlanta Falcons 

138146926-110/1/12 2:01am$400.00$400.00Pending10/4/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  302 St. Louis Rams +1 +100* vs Arizona Cardinals 

138131541-110/1/12 1:37am$270.00$200.00Pending2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7½fb & 5½bk




Pending10/1/12 8:35pm  NFL Football  231 Chicago Bears +10½ * vs Dallas Cowboys 




Pending10/4/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  302 St. Louis Rams +8½ * vs Arizona Cardinals 

138131531-110/1/12 1:35am$250.00$250.00Pending10/4/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  302 St. Louis Rams +1 +100* vs Arizona Cardinals 

138130723-110/1/12 1:03am$270.00$200.00Pending2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7½fb & 5½bk




Pending10/1/12 8:35pm  NFL Football  231 Chicago Bears +10½ * vs Dallas Cowboys 




Pending10/4/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  302 St. Louis Rams +8½ * vs Arizona Cardinals 

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#2
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:19:20 AM

BOL brother

Hawks will hammer that ram behind in seattle by 14 plus

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#3
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:21:09 AM

what u think about mnf??

Got 10 units on cowboys ML

hit with the eagles ml.... loved all the line movement and public on the giants, same tommorow siding with vegas

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#4
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:25:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MagicBoy:

what u think about mnf??

Got 10 units on cowboys ML

hit with the eagles ml.... loved all the line movement and public on the giants, same tommorow siding with vegas



Bears always play exceptionally well on MNF. Two really good defenses if I had to choose i'd take the points with the bears in what seems to be a close game. I'm not gonna bite though as the Cowboys have a bye next week and will most likely be extra focused for this one. Hence me teasing the bears.
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#5
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:30:14 AM
tease is the way,,,,,, number one bet on my site is the bears....... means fade.... thats why i took the moneyline....... just like tonight, the eagles game went from 3 point fav to 2 in the last 4 min,,,,,
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#6
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:31:04 AM
I really like this ATS
Short week
Cards travel west to east , their body is still in the west time zone.
this sounds really really good.

Nice write up!


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#7
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:40:10 AM
rams no offensive points in their game today, all special teams scoring.

defense had trouble stopping Lynch, but most teams do. secondary for rams played well but seahawks have a fairly weak passing game.

i dunno if az wins another one i think their luck has ran out
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#8
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:42:19 AM
I can't even see cards going 5-0
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#9
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:44:40 AM
BOL on this. I like the angle. Looking ahead...your wk8 play must be Cowboys at home vs the G-Men?
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#10
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:52:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smoovethug:

BOL on this. I like the angle. Looking ahead...your wk8 play must be Cowboys at home vs the G-Men?


No, the situation only applies the first time the teams play each other. Cowboys already played the Giants in week 1 in this situation and they not only covered ATS but won SU. I didn't count it when I said the situation is 2-0 this year because the cowboys were +4.5 not 4 or less but regardless it still won.
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#11
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:00:39 AM
Where can i see this ATS information , i like the pick.
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#12
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:02:35 AM
also -- Kolb is a shitty player on turf -- he has limited games on NFL turf. The ones he did play, he played poorly. 

Think there is a chance this line flips to -1?
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str8from228
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#13
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:21:17 AM

so you take the team who lost last year no matter if they favor or underdog 4 pts or less? Or do they have to be underdog +pts....just wondering.

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CanadaCup
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#14
Posted: 10/1/2012 7:23:53 AM
Arizona is 5-0 SU in it's last 5 games playing on the road against the Rams
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BrownGem
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#15
Posted: 10/1/2012 8:24:58 AM
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Bet_The_House
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#16
Posted: 10/1/2012 9:28:35 AM
Nice trend, after looking at this game the thing that is worrying for the Rams is the Red Zone stats. They are second last in the red zone on offense at 33% conversion and Arizona is the second best on Redzone Defense allowing only 25%.
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#17
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:32:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by str8from228:

so you take the team who lost last year no matter if they favor or underdog 4 pts or less? Or do they have to be underdog +pts....just wondering.



underdog or favorite, both are okay as long as the spread is small. that indicates the teams are evenly matched and that motivation will step in and be the deciding factor
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#18
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:47:00 AM
Lmao ^^^ get the F out tout. Your "proprietary copyrighted database" ?
Go ahead and act like your the only one with this trend
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ShadowWarrior
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#19
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:52:10 AM
You get a good deal with Rams at even money at plus 1.  But so much plays with them involved.
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#20
Posted: 10/1/2012 12:01:11 PM
Love it
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#21
Posted: 10/1/2012 12:02:28 PM

Nice angle LeagueCapper! I was already on the Home dog Rams, but your post makes me even more confident!

GL pal!

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#22
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:16:00 PM
Thanks LC, you are one of the best on here.
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#23
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:16:19 PM
Umm didn't Baltimore sweep Cleveland and Cincy last year? Unless I'm missing something.
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#24
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:18:02 PM
Sorry LC, I missed the 4 points or less angle
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#25
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:28:56 PM
I like it
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