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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 1
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/27/2012 11:14:10 PM
Denver +1

Flashback to last January and the Steelers were a banged up and weary squad coming into Denver to play a playoff game in which they ultimately lost. Now with the exception of Big Ben having a healthy left foot this time around let's look at the current state of the Steelers: Due to injuries and 2nd round pick/presumptive starting LT Mike Adams sucking behind the Steelers will enter this game with exactly 1 starter on the offensive line that was in that same position when they started training camp a few weeks ago. What was supposed to be a revamped offensive line perhaps finally fixing a longtime weakness the Steelers instead have more questions on this unit filled with retreads than they did at the end of last season. Starting at RB last January was Isaac Redman who will get the start again here but he's missed two full weeks of practice with a bad hip and now has an ankle injury on top of that. Mike Wallace actually played in that game in January but with an entire new offense to learn it will be a challenge considering he is just now reporting to camp. This offense suddenly doesn't look too great, especially with an offensive line held together by duct tape going up against a good pass rush. Defensively the Steelers also have problems. James Harrison may not even play in this game after preseason knee surgery. And Ryan Clark will most likely miss the game as well with a sickle-cell disease. That means Pittsburgh will start two new starters in the secondary. The Steelers walked into this stadium last January banged up and full of question marks and really not a hell of a lot has changed.

But this bet isn't so much about what Pittsburgh may or may not be able to field. This bet is about Peyton Manning. I'm not pretending to know how good Manning will be this season, whether he still has zip on the ball, or how long he will even last after a few games of taking hits. But I know this guy is one of the most competitive players to ever take the field. This is a guy for the most part that has never really faced many questions in his career. You knew you were getting 12 wins, a Top 3 MVP finish, 40+ TD'S and a division crown. Now suddenly people are wondering just what this guy has left. That seed of doubt has crept into everyone's minds. Not only that but he was outright cut by the team he helped put on the map. I believe we have all the ingredients necessary for a darn YOU game. Everything is lining up perfectly for Manning (and the Broncos who so desperately wanted him) to come out in front of a jacked up crowd on a national TV showcase game and lay down a huge darn YOU I'M PEYTON MOTHERFUCKING MANNING, girl to everyone who has doubted him over the last 18 months. Maybe Manning will suck this year who knows, but all great players have one last kick and I think Manning will give it everything he's got this year and no more so than right off the bat in Week 1.


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#2
Posted: 8/28/2012 10:21:08 AM
like it.
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#3
Posted: 8/28/2012 10:37:11 AM
As a Steelers fan, I hope your analysis is incorrect.  Good luck.
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#4
Posted: 8/28/2012 10:47:10 AM
just a few points... last year two nights before the game one of the coaches was burned nearly to death was in the hospital in critical condution and lost his house, so I feel as if the steelers had other things on their mind...

steelers are normally pretty good in revenge games

peyton manning historically has been much worse outdoors than indoors which will be a big adjustment for the broncos this year (more so at the end of the season)

i originally was going to bet the stealers, but now it is  a no play because of injuries to decastro harrison (what seems like every rb) and mike wallace will take time to get back into form


all that being said BOL 
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#5
Posted: 8/28/2012 5:51:33 PM
tough to go against the steelers here with a Huge revenge factor, regardless of who the QB is for the broncos
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#6
Posted: 8/28/2012 6:08:40 PM
I don't know what people see in Pitt this year (I've seen people predicting 10-12 wins).  Would not be shocked if Big Ben misses 3-5 games this year.  Don't trust the O-Line.  I. Redmond?  Defense another year older.  

Might be the year Pitt finally takes a step backward.  Just a guess.  
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#7
Posted: 8/28/2012 6:46:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

I don't know what people see in Pitt this year (I've seen people predicting 10-12 wins).  Would not be shocked if Big Ben misses 3-5 games this year.  Don't trust the O-Line.  I. Redmond?  Defense another year older.  

Might be the year Pitt finally takes a step backward.  Just a guess.  
I think you're right on target. 
Agree with the side and pinpoint analysis, Andy. 
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#8
Posted: 8/28/2012 7:00:08 PM

HutchEmAll:

Don't forget Pittspurgh's last three draft classes. How many starters have been added to the roster? Let's see:

2010: M. Gilbert OT - okay in his first year 
2011: Pouncey C - a quality addition
2012: DeCastro G - torn ACL

Compare that to the host of rookies who will be major contributions in GBay this year. If the draft is the lifeblood of an organization, then I expect PITT will begin to slide down the standings. Like you said - just a hunch.

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#9
Posted: 8/28/2012 7:47:22 PM

As a Steelers fan..Manning rolls 32-17.

Denver +1

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#10
Posted: 8/28/2012 8:00:20 PM
   
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#11
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:10:11 AM

Agree 100% Andy.  Everything you named is key, and no Harrison or Clark seals the deal for me.

This is a strange week.  Was bullshitting with my buddy from work today(sharp old dude) and we were on the same page.  Strange opening week with lots of huge dogs, and we agree that at least 4 or 5 of them are gonna cover.....only problem is we have to choose from a bunch of QBs making their first career start.  Tough pickings. 

Arizona stood out to me off the bat, but I'm starting to wonder with Wilson at the helm and Seattle's D looking pretty damn good.  Denver is definitely on my cheatsheet, but with the game hovering around a PK, no rush.

Only game I locked so far was the Jets -3.  I love how their defense looked last couple games(granted it's X football), I love how the media is turning them into a circus, and I love how this offense is already being hailed as awful when they showed nothing(sanchez wasn't BS'ing).  Buffalo and Fitz look out of sync and I think that D eats them up.  Last year the Jets hammered them in one game, while Buffalo did okay in the other game(think they managed 320 yards or so).  I don't think they get anywhere near 320 yards Sunday. 

GL with your plays and cheers to a strong season!

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#12
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:19:43 AM
lol ppl still on the jets!!! lol!!! and pitt will destroy  peyton too hurt and rusty
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#13
Posted: 8/30/2012 2:16:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Only game I locked so far was the Jets -3.  I love how their defense looked last couple games(granted it's X football), I love how the media is turning them into a circus, and I love how this offense is already being hailed as awful when they showed nothing(sanchez wasn't BS'ing).  Buffalo and Fitz look out of sync and I think that D eats them up.  Last year the Jets hammered them in one game, while Buffalo did okay in the other game(think they managed 320 yards or so).  I don't think they get anywhere near 320 yards Sunday. 

GL with your plays and cheers to a strong season!

I have been eyeing this play for a while.  You have a typical overhyped team that has never proven anything before playing a team that has done well in the recent past.

The Jets have a lot of value at this number, the only big concern I have with the play is whether the fans will be very negative and tense, that alone may steer me away from the play because it's not easy to play in an environment like that under so much pressure.

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#14
Posted: 8/30/2012 2:17:14 AM
GL andy I'd love to see Peyton come back strong here
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#15
Posted: 8/30/2012 10:39:48 AM
linky


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#16
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:33:26 PM
MtBaker. You were wondering about the Jet fans. While the media seems to be overwhelmingly negative, the fans all seem to be cautiously positive. I live in central NJ, I work about 15 minutes away from Giant stadium, and I am friends with a lot of NY Jet fans. Everyone I talk to share the same opinion of the team, more or less.

- They love the defense and think they can truly be elite. They also think that defense alone can carry them to wild card(10-6; 2nd in East).

- They all think Tebow is a joke, but are eager to use him in 3rd and short, GL, or Wildcat spots.

- All have full support of Sanchez as the starting QB and think with some tools, he can win games just as he did his first two seasons.

- All kinda laugh at the media and the insane negativity.

Bottom line(and I understand my experiences with a small number of Jets fans don't necessarily account for ALL the fans), but I think the crowd is crazy Sunday afternoon. I think they have full support for Sanchez, and only in the most extreme of circumstances do they start the Tebow chants or any kind of booing bullshit.

GL if u make a play.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#17
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:05:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

tough to go against the steelers here with a Huge revenge factor, regardless of who the QB is for the broncos

even tougher to go against manning
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#18
Posted: 8/30/2012 3:24:14 PM
Vikings and packers on my radar. Lean jets too but not strong. 
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#19
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:24:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by glyde69:

MtBaker. You were wondering about the Jet fans. While the media seems to be overwhelmingly negative, the fans all seem to be cautiously positive. I live in central NJ, I work about 15 minutes away from Giant stadium, and I am friends with a lot of NY Jet fans. Everyone I talk to share the same opinion of the team, more or less.

- They love the defense and think they can truly be elite. They also think that defense alone can carry them to wild card(10-6; 2nd in East).

- They all think Tebow is a joke, but are eager to use him in 3rd and short, GL, or Wildcat spots.

- All have full support of Sanchez as the starting QB and think with some tools, he can win games just as he did his first two seasons.

- All kinda laugh at the media and the insane negativity.

Bottom line(and I understand my experiences with a small number of Jets fans don't necessarily account for ALL the fans), but I think the crowd is crazy Sunday afternoon. I think they have full support for Sanchez, and only in the most extreme of circumstances do they start the Tebow chants or any kind of booing bullshit.

GL if u make a play.

beautiful, we may have a play brewing on our hands, thanks for the info though you never wanna make a bet and have the fans turn against the team,

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#20
Posted: 8/31/2012 12:35:06 AM
Like it. 

I think Tampa bay Is the best play of week one. Thoughts?
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#21
Posted: 8/31/2012 12:44:53 AM
Never bet against Peyton Manning in prime time.
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#22
Posted: 8/31/2012 11:50:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nbafan88:

Never bet against Peyton Manning in prime time.



Flip Side...look at Pitt's prime time #'s over last few years...

hate to say it but Den will prob. take this one...but will not be betting a dime on it.

I also think Pitt will have a 'off year'... big Steelers fan but under 10 wins @ + $$ is begging for a play
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#23
Posted: 9/2/2012 12:26:16 AM
Had some time today to run through the rest of the card. Week 1 looks chalky for me. My thoughts on these:

GB - Looks like a good spot. I think SF is in for a big regression year (Packers too record wise but as a team they will be better than last year). SF was chewed up by good pass offenses last year but always bailed out by turnovers. Put as much stock into it as you want but Rivers, Manning, and Schuab shredded the 1st stringers in preseason so that trend may hold up. Packers defense is in for a big bounce back season IMO and good spot here against a bad offense in the late day TV game to make a statement they are back.

BAL - I'm not much of a believer in the Bengals. Dalton is a marginally better Alex Smith to me. A smart kid with a noodle arm that can shine against bad teams and once in a while play sound against good teams. This has a chance to be a pretty bad offense. They have a whole lot of unproven players behind AJ Green and their backfield stinks. Most importantly they were already starting a rookie at RG, then they lost their LG for the year and their center was injured last week is may also be gone for the year. They signed a vet off the street that was cut by TB in January to start at center in this game. This o-line is a mess and while Baltimore's front may be down a notch a night game in this stadium is no place for three new players on the interior line. Ravens also have a great corner in Webb who can contain AJ Green. Green caught just two passes for 25 yards of the 7 thrown his way against the Ravens last season. Somebody tell me how this team scores more than 13 points. On the other side the Ravens are old on the o-line and the Bengals do have a good defense but Baltimore has much better playmakers and don't have to play against the crowd. Flacco is going to surprise people this year. A tidy GB/BAL tease looking nice at this point.

ARZ - The Cards are going to stink this year but this is a winnable game. Lots of talk about Seattle's defense but the Cardinals D was top notch down the stretch last year once Peterson settled in. Last year Seattle gave up 5.1 YPP, Zona gave up 5.2 but no one seems to notice. Say what you want about Skelton but I'll take him at home over a hyped up rookie laying road chalk without ever playing a meaningful snap. Wilson had a great preseason yes but his first two games were against backups and the 3rd against a KC team notorious for not caring about preseason. Line will probably be a reasonable +3 after opening -1. A 4 point swing on some preseason hype looks like value to me.

NO - Lot of hype for Griffin. The guy already has at least 3 commercials without ever taking an NFL snap. Good spot for the Saints to be plenty fired up as well for a bit of darn you game/getting a lot off their chest (as much as you can be as a big fav). Bottomline is Griffin has proven jack garbage and this dome is going to be loud as darn on Sunday and the defense will be energized. Brees has looked like he hasn't missed a beat in preseason and I have a bad feeling this Skins D is for a long day. Saints love hitting the middle of the field and the middle of the Skins D is very weak. London Fletcher can't cover my grandma anymore and their starting safeties are castoffs who are both on their 3rd team in 3 years. You put Graham, these backs that all catch out of the backfield, and Colston/Moore running crossing routes on these guys and things could get ugly. Not typically a fan of laying wood on a team that dominated at home last year but the stars are aligning for a blowout. No feel at all for these other big spread games. I believe Luck is a Top 10 QB right now but on the road against a good D is always very tough.

One mega-square play that may win this week is ATL. This is a very big year for them and if they really see themselves as a contender they will win going away in this spot, as they've failed in these situations (and the world has reminded them) many, many times in the past. No interest in paying money to find out though.
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#24
Posted: 9/2/2012 12:44:21 AM
One more note on the Packers. These uber elite QB's have been very, very difficult to stop at home and as a result they win often. If you'd bet Brees, Brady, and Rodgers every home game they last 3 years when the line was -7 or less you'd be 22-5-2 ATS throwing out last year's Week 17 Pack game and NO Week 17 in 2010.

Glyde/Baker - Great to see you guys. Will be looking for your stuff all year. I've been going back and forth on the Jets myself. Certainly the situation of the sky falling and the line being very cheap is something very attractive to betting the Jets. Yes, the defense will be top notch but I really don't think this was a preseason issue for the Jets with their offense, this is a terrible unit. Buffalo is going to field a good D-line and if all the reports on Gilmore are true they could have a Darrelle Revis lookalike in the secondary. This game looks like a total shitfest to me which means it of course will be a 34-31 shootout. I have a very hard time seeing the crowd not get all over this offense if they struggle early especially after the debacle of the preseason they just put forth. Jets or nothing but it's ugh this will be an ugly bet for me. -2.5 may be the magic # though we'll see what happens during the week.

Fan - Liked Tampa a few weeks ago but a combination of wanting to actually see if the defense is improved with my own eyes and the value being sucked out of the line has me saying no thanks. GL.
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#25
Posted: 9/2/2012 5:26:33 AM
GB and bal would be nice teaser!
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