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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Werker's NFL Futures
TreyInventor send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 6/28/2012 6:25:34 PM
Love The Bears +3000. great value
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#27
Posted: 6/29/2012 2:37:39 AM
I have to say you made some good comments regarding my insight on the lions - they did great last year and we shall not forget that they are the LIONS.. But they have not yet won the Super Bowl and to me they are due. perhaps not this year but they are getting closer and for them, that is a HUGE statement, ya know what i mean

oh ya, running attacks, over rated these days, jsut ask the packers, saints and the giants..
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#28
Posted: 6/29/2012 2:37:59 AM
I really do love cutler and was praying the skins would have made that trade.. hes a winner 
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#29
Posted: 6/29/2012 10:03:33 AM
bears will be a tough team this year too many key injuries for them last season.
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#30
Posted: 6/29/2012 2:15:31 PM
Vanrush: The O/U on the Rams is o6 -120/u6 EV...I really have to disagree with you on liking that under. I was actually considering the over on this one. Winnable games: 5 division games that aren't @SF, WAS, @MIA, NYJ, @BUF, MIN, @TB.....I don't actually think they're an 11 win team, but these games are very much in play. If they pull one shocker out in the other 5 games, they're very likely going to beat the 6 wins. That team has nowhere to go but up and a BIG part of why they were terrible last year was injuries. On paper, they've got a very solid team going. Not a contender, but I'm sure as hell not betting them to win 5 or fewer games this year. This is just a bet I will not touch.

Sharkman1: I do like the Cowboys' chances this year. They're one of the teams capable of winning it all for sure. Their schedule is ROUGH though. I predict this: 3-3 in division, winning at home v TB and CLE bringing them to 5-3, they'd then need to go 4-4 in these games to win (@SEA, CHI, @BAL, @CAR, @ATL, @CIN, PIT, NO). I think they come out of those games 4-4 at best. There isn't close to enough value in o8.5 -150 (at my book anyway) to justify locking in this bet. If they stay strong and uninjured, I'd rather just take the points or plus money on some of those games individually if I think they're going to come through). 

I've already commented on the Lions, and I LOVE the Texans this year. I'd have already locked in the season wins, but the juice is throwing me....o9.5 -170. That's a bit much. +1000 to win the Super Bowl is just a bit low for my tastes for anyone with the injury issues that always happen in the NFL. You'll definitely see me backing them this year though.

chillinmcm:  WTG at 42-1...woulda loved that.

mischkin04: 

TreyInventor: 

GoldRush: The 6(?) Lions arrests also concern me. And rushing attacks are less important than they used to be, but considering the Lions were held to 32 yards on 10 carries in their playoff loss, I'd like to see them do SOMETHING more. I also like Cutler a lot.

metalbill: 
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#31
Posted: 7/1/2012 12:28:41 AM
Like the TB over.

Bills will be Bills.
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#32
Posted: 7/1/2012 2:56:49 AM

Niners13 I also like the Niners OVER a little,I think with the new coach and signings along with Josh Freeman rebounding sets them up to be more competitve this and maybe hit that total over.There defense scarys me a little.

     Looking at the Cowboys i think this year Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant become forces to be recon with,let's not forget they had the Giants beat BUT ROMO couldn't collect with a wide open Miles Austin late in game.

      I'm not a Cowboys fan just like my bet 15-1 to win the NFC.

      The Bears are going to be interesting but something BAD always seems to happen to them.

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#33
Posted: 7/1/2012 5:10:24 PM
Thanks Werker for your opinions....they are MUCH appreciated and valued!  My site finally put up totals and after going over several this one looks very good:  CLEVELAND UNDER 5.5 -140.  Rookie shotgun QB going to a normal setup in NFL with little receiver help and a rookie RB, decent line at best.  Brutal schedule with NFC East as their out of conference foes and AFC West scheduled as well.  I see them winning 3-4 games tops....thoughts?
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#34
Posted: 7/19/2012 7:31:29 PM
Man, I've been CRAZY busy with work....can't wait for the season already though!

Just to recap my plays so far:

Bears to win the Super Bowl +3000 (currently +1800)

Bucs o5 wins -120 (currently o5.5 -120)

Pats u12.5 wins -120 (currently u12.5 -170)

Bills o7.5 wins -130 (currently o7.5 -180)

Added Plays:

Browns u5.5 wins -140 (credit to Vanrush for bringing that schedule to my attention) : Know first off that I actually am much higher on the Browns than almost anyone I talk to. They have gotten absolutely screwed by the NFL with their schedule.

PHI (.05), @CIN (.2), BUF(.4), @BAL(.05), @NYG(.15), CIN(.4), @IND(.4), SD(.3), BAL(.3), @DAL(.15), PIT(.3), @OAK(.4), KC(.45), WAS(.5), @DEN(.3), @PIT(.05) = 4.4 wins by my estimation

Chris Johnson most rushing yards +1500: This is more a value play than anything else. I think there are only six guys that could really win this wager in my opinion, and I honestly don't think any of them are that much more likely than the others. So I'll take the +1500 and hope. 

Here are some year long player props I like, but am looking to parse this list down to at most 10:

Rodgers +300.5 yards over Brees
Cutler +150.5 yards over Vick
Luck +99.5 yards over RGIII
Rodgers -5.5 TDs over Peyton
Rodgers -5.5 TDs over Eli
Mathews +10.5 yards over SJax
Gore +2.5 TDs over Bradshaw
Cruz +55.5 yards over Welker
Colston -19.5 yards over VJax
BMarsh +30.5 yards over Bowe
Jimmy +50.5 yards over Gronk
Jimmy +3.5 TDs over Gronk
Fitz PK TDs over Roddy
Dez PK TDs over Cruz

Would love to get some opinions from you guys on which to eliminate. I'm leaning towards just taking out the TD props (other than Jimmy/Gronk which I love)

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#35
Posted: 7/19/2012 10:05:30 PM
I like almost all of the prop bets, minus gore's 2.5 td's over bradshaw. However you already stated your thinking of eliminating the TD picks so all I will say is good selection so far dude.
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#36
Posted: 7/20/2012 8:56:37 AM
Thanks, Slumdog. Yeah, that was one of my least favorites only 'cause I'm a Giant fan. On second look, that's definitely off the board.

Also, just a clarification on those props, they're all only IN POSITION values...so rushing yards/TDs don't count for QBs, WRs or TEs, and receiving yards/TDs don't count for RBs.
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#37
Posted: 7/20/2012 12:04:52 PM

 Like Rodgers -5.5 TD's over both Peyton and Eli.

    Cruz + 55.5    Dez PICK TD's

    gl

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#38
Posted: 7/20/2012 2:17:55 PM

Hey Werker a big shout out to you and I hope you had a great off season.

I just listened to a Chad Millman podcast at ESPN and he was interviewing one of the top LV wiseguys, Bill Krackomberger and he liked the following season totals:

N.E. under 12.5
Browns over 4.5
Raiders over 7.5

The Browns number is sitting at 5.5 to 6.0 now.

Good Luck!

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#39
Posted: 7/21/2012 10:16:42 AM
mischkin04: Why don't you like the Cruz/Welker prop? Dez v Cruz is almost definitely out at this point if only because of the suspension possibility. 

Shiva: How you been? Hope all is well. Well I agree with him on the Pats obviously, I can't about the Browns...I like them, but their schedule is brutal. With a neutral schedule, I'd say they're an 8-8 team. And I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but my spot has the Browns at u5 -120 now. I just don't have a good enough read on the Raiders to warrant making a season long play on them. Thanks for the input though. Look forward to a great season.
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#40
Posted: 7/22/2012 1:13:09 AM
Werker thanks for the shoutout......I laid 1400 to win 1000 on Cleve Under 5.5 -140.  I agree they are improved, but as stated they will be beat down by their schedule.

Also have laid these:  1300 to win 1000 MINN UNDER 6 -130. Minnesota will lose all of their division games or at most go 1-5. They do play the weak AFC Central and NFC West but have to win most if not all toss up games to get to 6 wins let alone 7.  725 to win 500 Jacksonville UNDER 5.5 -145.  They may be slightly improved at best, at worst a 3-13 or 2-14 team.  NO pass game or QB and aging RB as well as weaker WR.  Cannot score.  Play the Under in their games with their solid defense lol.  

Considering UNDER 6 St Louis and Over 9 Detroit and Over 10 Houston.

GL Werker with all of your plays and again thanks for the your input, it got me off of playing TAMPA BAY UNDER 6.
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#41
Posted: 7/23/2012 11:34:51 AM
werker......what do you think about denver u 9.5
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#42
Posted: 7/25/2012 3:40:03 PM

It seems the venerable football think tank Football Outsiders has made a somewhat shocking prediction in their 2012 almanac that the 49'ers will close out the season with a 7-9. It's hard not to take a double take when considering that the team returns all of its defensive starters, they play in a relatively weak division, and they've made  moves to address their weakness at wide receiver. What's up? Apparently the last 13 teams to finish with a 13-3 record won an average of 8.3 games the following season with only three of those teams finishing better than 9-7. Over the same period, the 19 teams finishing 13-3 or better all finished with lesser records the next year. The average drop was 4.1 victories  per team. To bolster their prediction F.O. points out that defense and special teams have a higher performance variance, both 49er strenghts, from one season to the next.

I'm not one for blindly following stats, so was wondering if anyone out there has an opinion on this interesting stuff from Football Outsiders.

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#43
Posted: 7/27/2012 5:47:53 PM

I just listened to a podcast at ESPN (behind the bets) and Chad Millman was interviewing Fezzik the two time HILTON contest winner and he was talking about season totals.

Chicago (over) he claims it's a no brainer.

SF (under) he noted some of the reasons I mentioned in my previous post but also pointed to the 49'ers schedule which was easy last year and average this year. Also, he talked about the 49'ers TO ratio and said it would be impossible to duplicate the +1.8 per game turnover ratio. As for injuries, the 49'ers were pretty healthy last year and the odds were that they won't be as lucky this year. One last thing, he looked at S.F. schedule last year and pointed to a couple of games they were lucky to win (Eagles, ?) and said realistically they should have only won 11 games.

Any opinions on G.B. season totals. They play in division where Chicago and Detroit are on the rise. They have questions at RB and their OL is not much better than OK. Also, their defense is suspect. I guess you could be a contrarian and point to the fact their defense is bound to improve this year and they went 15-1 with a terrible defense last year. Also, I read where Rodgers has been sacked an average of 39 times a year over the last four seasons. Who knows, maybe Rodgers will get banged up or suffer an injury this year, but then again maybe he's an iron man. Oh well, just food for thought. Any opinions?

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#44
Posted: 7/27/2012 6:04:09 PM

As for the Eagles schedule, they play four teams coming off a bye. That's a quarter of their schedule where they are at a slight disadvantage.

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#45
Posted: 7/27/2012 10:01:32 PM
I still have not gotten used to your avatar lol
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#46
Posted: 7/27/2012 10:12:03 PM
Now I want to see Kobe's Birth Certificate 
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#47
Posted: 7/28/2012 3:29:49 PM
Vanrush: Credit where credit is due...As far as your other plays, I don't really feel strongly either way about any of them. BOL whatever you decide. I have to have an especially strong feeling to want to lock money up for the whole season. 

Boba: As I've said here, I don't like to lock up money if I don't feel strongly, and the Broncos are a very iffy bet either way. If Peyton lives up to expectations, they should have 10 or 11 wins. If he gets retired on his first big hit, it is an instant loser. I'd rather bet game by game. 

Shiva: Interesting points. 

I was already thinking under or no play on SF, but really not convinced. I think their upside this year is 12-4, with their likeliest record being 10-6...I think I'm just going to stay off it.

I already have my Chicago play going in the Super Bowl future. Not going to take the wins total too, but I obviously like them.

The Packers would be an u12 or no play for me, but I really do think their downside is 10-6 baring a MAJOR injury. @HOU, @DET, @NYG and @CHI are the only games they'll have any shot to be dogs in. I could easily see them winning 13. I'm not going to lock up money for the season and hope for an injury.

Gold Rush: lol
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#48
Posted: 7/28/2012 3:37:44 PM
The more I continue to look, the more I am starting to like Cincy. They have a relatively easy schedule and building on young talent.

I like the addition of law firm and their o/u is set at 8. I'm interested to hear what your thoughts on the Bengals are.
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#49
Posted: 7/28/2012 8:56:05 PM
BOL Werker to you as well.  May add Buffalo O7.5 heavy juice though.
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#50
Posted: 7/29/2012 10:12:25 AM
EW: I do not think they have such an easy schedule. I have it like this: @BAL .2, CLE .8, @WAS .6, @JAC .75, MIA .8, @CLE .6, PIT .4, DEN .5, NYG .5, @KC .35, OAK .8, @SD .35, DAL .5, @PHI .2, @PIT .2, BAL .4. That actually adds up to 7.95. And I think 8-8 is by far their most likely scenario. This is an easy no play for me. 

Vanrush: Yeah, I still do really like the play, but at almost 2-1, I'm not sure I'd have taken it. I stayed away from the Texans for that reason despite really liking them. 
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