Fundamental Question: Can the "public" be right?

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Fundamental Question: Can the "public" be right?
touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/31/2012 2:15:49 AM
Here's a stat the public has to be seeing:

Since SpyGate at the start of the '07 season.... 

Pats Postseason Performances
07 Beat Jax 31-20 Against the Spread LOSER
07 Beat SD  21-12 Against the Spread LOSER
07 Lost NYG 17-14 Against the Spread LOSER
09 Lost Balt 33-14 Against the Spread LOSER
10 Lost Jets 28-21 Against the Spread LOSER
11 Beat Den 45-10 Against the Spread WINNER
11 Beat Balt 23-20 Against the Spread LOSER

Interesting Slide............   was the Tebow Massacre the game that was the exception or did it turn things around ??  

touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/31/2012 2:29:42 AM

Here's another doozy the Pats will be trying to break:  


In the last 16 Super Bowls, The higher seed is just 1-12-2 ATS.  ('09 was #1 vs. #1)

touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/31/2012 8:20:29 AM

Ok, last one.   For now.     It may be time for a seperate thread on "Trends --- Useful or Not Useful.  How numbers Can Lie"

In Super Bowl, teams of back to back underdog wins are on 6-1-1 run against the spread.

Teams with the better win percentage are 0 for their last 8 against the spread.

NFC teams are on 8-1-1 run against the spread vs. 800 or greater opponents.

GunShard PM GunShard
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Posted: 1/31/2012 9:16:57 PM

Interesting stats.

logicalbetting PM logicalbetting
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Posted: 2/1/2012 2:55:46 PM

Here's a stat for you.

No team has ever won the Superbowl with a 9-7 record during the regular season.

Tough one to go against ?

logicalbetting PM logicalbetting
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Posted: 2/1/2012 2:57:01 PM

I guess I left out that if you get the Giants at +3.5 then all those stats could still hold true if NE wins by 1, 2 or 3.

So I would either play Giants +3.5 or NE moneyline if you want to fall within those strong trends/stats.

touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 2/1/2012 4:59:06 PM

I like the 9-7 stat...... wow.  

Tough one to fight there..... do you know how many 9-7 teams have made it to the Super Bowl?

joeylazaretti PM joeylazaretti
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Posted: 2/1/2012 6:46:55 PM

Looking at that 9-7 stat.. Do you think that would hold true forever? Trends/streaks/whatever are always broken at some point in time. I personally wouldn't pay much attention to that stat, but that's just me.

touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 2/1/2012 9:40:58 PM
hey...... 

thanks, mean joe!


chargerfan10 PM chargerfan10
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Posted: 2/2/2012 11:26:11 AM
I wonder if vegas bookmakers are choosing NE to win and cover as to even out the money on each side.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/story.cfm/story/1232359
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:16:40 PM
In short:  Yes.
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:17:48 PM

But every game/situation is unique so its unfair to say "the public is always right/wrong". 

Can't ever use absolutes in sports gambling.....unless your talking about the Redwings at home, Blazers at home, or the Patriots off a loss 

touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:25:17 PM
don't forget the over on Yankees / RedSox time of game
depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:36:02 PM
Even the "wrong" side is going to win roughly 40-49% of the time.
Bankroll2010 PM Bankroll2010
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:37:38 PM

Heres what i have learned when it comes to the superbowl.

1. The most important thing to remember. Either the favorite covers the spread...or the underdog wins outright. VERY rarely does the favorite win the superbowl but fail to cover. Most recent example of this is Steelers over Arizona. Therefore...if you like the Giants..take the moneyline on them. If you like the patriots...avoid the money line.

2. The public..which generally will be about 50/50 throughout the regular season...does a fantastic job of picking winners for the superbowl. For the most part...the public makes money on the superbowl...giving bookies quite the headache...until they invented.....

3. PROP bets. The worst bets you can possibly make. Why would any sane person bet on a coin toss with Juice on it? Why would you bet that so and so player catches the first TD pass. Or, (my favorite), why on earth would you bet on ANYTHING that has to do with Madonna and her halftime show???!!!

Prop bets were designed for suckers to help cushion the blow that the bookies will probably receive from the betting public crushing them on normal bets.

However...the betting Public is not exactly widely backing anyone this year. Currently..the betting public is 55% in favor of Giants. To me, that is NOT a highly favored team by the betting public. What really seems to be everyones favorite bet on the superbowl this year is the UNDER. Most places opened at 56..and now the line is at 54 (or even lower at some places)

Therefore, it is my humble opinion, (applying the rules stated above) that the best bet to make is the UNDER. And i personally feel that the Patriots is the team to bet on...but that is just a hunch.

i hope that helps you guys out. Personally i have done quite well on the superbowl following the above rules with few exception. ( F U steelers LOL) <---had arizona ML in that one.

 

Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 2/2/2012 5:54:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bankroll2010:

Heres what i have learned when it comes to the superbowl.

1. The most important thing to remember. Either the favorite covers the spread...or the underdog wins outright. VERY rarely does the favorite win the superbowl but fail to cover. Most recent example of this is Steelers over Arizona. Therefore...if you like the Giants..take the moneyline on them. If you like the patriots...avoid the money line. 


Beyond False...off the top of my head three favorites that won that did not cover...Pats Win/no cover vs. Eagles...Pats win/no cover vs. Panthers.  Steelers win/no cover over Cards. 
touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 2/3/2012 2:12:04 AM
so.....  squares (lang, feiner, me) on the gmen --- and that's just the way it is?

can anyone please share some stories about people they know on new england in this one?   

however false, it would be nice to hear about. 
vegas-angle PM vegas-angle
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Posted: 2/3/2012 2:37:05 AM
Can the public win? ofcourse! If 100 people is on one side but betting $20.00 each and 15 people is one the other side and betting $2000.00 each, the public will win. These site tells you how many bets are going where, but it doesn't tell you how much? Also the second half betting is becoming a very big part of the equation as well. If I know 100% sure that how much money is on eachside, I would win everyday. Because Vegas is greedy, they will fix every lopside game.
Bankroll2010 PM Bankroll2010
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Posted: 2/3/2012 12:59:22 PM
There have been over 40 superbowls. Only 5 times in superbowl history has the favorite won but failed to cover the spread. 2 times were by the Pats, 2 times by the steelers, and 1 time by the 49ers.
 
http://www.predictem.com/nfl/previous.php
 
Theres my source. Now say your sorry. I didnt say it was IMPOSSIBLE to happen...i said it happnes RARELY.
Bankroll2010 PM Bankroll2010
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Posted: 2/3/2012 1:00:28 PM
Therefore, if you want to bet the underdog...take the moneyline. If you want to bet the favorite...go with the spread.
depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 2/3/2012 1:48:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bankroll2010:

Therefore, if you want to bet the underdog...take the moneyline. If you want to bet the favorite...go with the spread.


It's not that simple.  It depends on what the best line you can get either way is.  If you can find Giants +3-110 and have to decide between that and ML +125, then the choice is easy.  If you are offered +3-120 or ML +130 then it's a different story.  Better to be agnostic and go with the better value.
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 2/5/2012 10:47:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bankroll2010:

There have been over 40 superbowls. Only 5 times in superbowl history has the favorite won but failed to cover the spread. 2 times were by the Pats, 2 times by the steelers, and 1 time by the 49ers.
 
http://www.predictem.com/nfl/previous.php
 
Theres my source. Now say your sorry. I didnt say it was IMPOSSIBLE to happen...i said it happnes RARELY.


Yup. Spreads don't matter as often as people think.

Lot of super bowls have been blowouts, a little closer games the last 10 years or so....


Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 2/5/2012 10:48:08 AM
I guess we'll see how this public underdog turns out tonight.




Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 2/5/2012 11:59:56 PM
Lines moves go 8-0 ats in the playoffs.  Crazy.

Not much else mattered.


touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 2/6/2012 1:50:12 AM
seemed like 80% of experts and players liked the giants.... once again game was a 50/50 break at the end.....  and "everyone" you talked to before the game turned out to be right.  

Even Wigerby, Jay, Brandon Lang, Stu Fiener, Larry, etc.    Sometimes the public just gets it right.  
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