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Ravens getting more than a TD next week?

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Posted: #1


i figured this line at 4, maybe i'm crazy

New England's defense and running game is not Houston's. The Pats are fantastic on offense but this is a good matchup for Baltimore on both sides of the ball

baltimore was 12-4 this year and three of their losses were complete no shows on the road following big divisional wins. they should have had 15 wins this year or 14 at worst

i will be on baltimore + the points and the ML as well as soon as my book posts it. Pinnacle had 9. I almost moved to Canada to place that wager

https://games.espn.go.com/ffl/pointsagainst?positionId=4

TE stats against the Ravens this year. pretty damn good. only 2 good games against, one from heath miller, the other gresham. so either they cover the TE well or every TE they played stunk. i bet the former

absolutely no feel on the giants/sf except you should not look at the regular season game as a barometer. giants had just beaten the pats and played philly the next week. the playoffs are completely different
 
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Posted: #2
Good luck next week, KOAJ!
 
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Posted: #3

I agree....line is pretty high and at first glance I'll be taking the points.

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Good luck next week, KOAJ!


thanks. usually lines are super tight in the post season but these big lines against fantastic defenses baffle me

people are mesmerized by high powered offenses and are willing to lay big points with them
 
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Posted: #5
line is -9 with heavy juice... its really -7..
 
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Posted: #6

I am curious why you would figure the line would be at four?

 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:



thanks. usually lines are super tight in the post season but these big lines against fantastic defenses baffle me

people are mesmerized by high powered offenses and are willing to lay big points with them

I saw Pats -6.5 on Friday or so just before they romped Broncos, now that 45 points win surely did inflate the line.  

 
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Posted: #8
Utmost respect for you KOAJ but I disagree. This line is 9 for a reason. Pats D is absolutely suspect but their run game is a bit better then people perceive it to be and the overall offense speaks for itself. On the flip side of that coin you've got a Baltimore D that isn't as good as it's reputation suggests that might be without Ed Reed. Additionally I have a hard time believing that Flacco and Co. will be able to trade blows with Brady's offensive unit. A few other factors to consider are that the Patriots have one more day then the Ravens to prepare and there is a serious revenge factor in play. To me the line of -9 speaks volumes. I think most people would assume it would be under a TD and the -9 feels like Vegas will get people taking the large number with Balty only to be disappointed. BOL next weekend pal.


 
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Posted: #9
Gronkowski is no normal TE. He's a tough matchup for anyone.
 
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Posted: #10
This line will soon drop to 7, if it hasnt already. 
 
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Posted: #11
I just took the Pats at -7.  Flacco is garbage and if Ed Reed i dont see how Balty stops the TEs of NE
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Orangemen44:

I just took the Pats at -7.  Flacco is garbage and if Ed Reed i dont see how Balty stops the TEs of NE


fantastic LBs and safeties
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by ratherBgambling:

Utmost respect for you KOAJ but I disagree. This line is 9 for a reason. Pats D is absolutely suspect but their run game is a bit better then people perceive it to be and the overall offense speaks for itself. On the flip side of that coin you've got a Baltimore D that isn't as good as it's reputation suggests that might be without Ed Reed. Additionally I have a hard time believing that Flacco and Co. will be able to trade blows with Brady's offensive unit. A few other factors to consider are that the Patriots have one more day then the Ravens to prepare and there is a serious revenge factor in play. To me the line of -9 speaks volumes. I think most people would assume it would be under a TD and the -9 feels like Vegas will get people taking the large number with Balty only to be disappointed. BOL next weekend pal.



I took the Ravens -8 and now I see a few books already down to 7..The over 7 points was pounded and rightly so...
 
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Posted: #14
Pats looked like world beaters and Baltimore looked shitty.  Betting public doesn't remember past the last game.  Hence inflated line.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:


I took the Ravens -8 and now I see a few books already down to 7..The over 7 points was pounded and rightly so...

i didn't see them, could you name a few? Thanks!

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by beamjim:

I am curious why you would figure the line would be at four?



i guess it depends on how linesmakers read the public. honestly not sure how lines are made but i figure its a combo of power rankings and public perception trying to get even cash on both sides

public liked tebow a lot and saw 45 from brady. public saw a disgusting game from baltimore today and was willing to lay more than 4 points, more than 7 in fact

i think the matchup favors baltimore and especially ray rice and torrey smith. if Flacco plays a good game, Baltimore wins. they can throw deep, they can throw short, they can run and throw out of the backfield. as a ravens backer, i dont fear NE's defense and running game like i did houston's today, even with a rookie qb

if the line was 4 i stay away. i always try to figure what will make me stay away from a game and thats a good line in my own world. 4 i stay away, -2 i take NE, +7.5 i take baltimore
 
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Posted: #17
Just took Baltimore +7.5

Waiting for the ml to post. Hoping for 235
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by beamjim:

I am curious why you would figure the line would be at four?



Because 5dimes had -3.5
 
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Posted: #19
hard lean on the pats,,1-7 so far in playoffs ,,so run away from my pick
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

i didn't see them, could you name a few? Thanks!



BetUs is NE -7   -110
 
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Posted: #21

First line I saw on Pinny was 7 and this was shortly after the game.

 

 
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Posted: #22
Regardless of the actual X's and O's, ya gotta think the line is slightly inflated.

New England/Tom Brady's reputation along with the beatdown they just handed Denver is adding a few points that otherwise wouldn't be. Of course that doesn't guarantee an ATS win, but there's definitely some value on Baltimore.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by sandrew:



BetUs is NE -7   -110


Just went back up to -7.5   -110
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Niners13:



Because 5dimes had -3.5

For the Balt game?

I was out all day
 
 
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Posted: #25

Another website (V.I.), said that 5 dimes opened it at -8. No way the game would be bet up 4 points.

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