Super Bowl XLIV Top 10 Props

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Super Bowl XLIV Top 10 Props
nc1capper PM nc1capper
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Posted: 1/29/2010 9:32:38 PM
OVER (142) Natl Anthem,,,,OVER 2.5  TV views of Archie Manning during game,,,,,,Get ya some
tooez PM tooez
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Posted: 1/29/2010 10:00:17 PM

JackedUp- I can't believe another site had 8.5!!! Under that for sure. Question: What do they have Pierre Thomas at?

Simon- I know trust me these bets are more for shits and giggles. It's the only time of year I play them. The real  will be on the Colts with ya!!

nc1capper- I can't put money on something that can't be capped, but I would almost guarantee they show Archie's face more then 3 times.  GL 

 

 

JackedUp PM JackedUp
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Posted: 1/29/2010 10:37:00 PM
Yeah, the under 8.5 is starting to get backed in:

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/indianapolis-colts-at-new-orleans-saints/total-rushing-attempts-reggie-bush

P. Thomas is at 14.5 attempts

timdogs17 PM timdogs17
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Posted: 1/29/2010 10:49:43 PM
BustinPiles PM BustinPiles
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Posted: 1/29/2010 11:40:47 PM

Hey Ice - I just finished watching the NFC Championship again and did a little scouting for propositions. I don't think Greer will be getting much help. Clearly the Vikings intended to attack Porter the most and happy when they were in a Nickel or Dime package. The big plays and gains in the Vikings passing came against these guys.

Greer in Man to Man saw 9 balls thrown his way.

1) Incomplete pass intended for Rice

2) 1 yard gain Harvin

3) 5 yard gain Rice

4) Incomplete pass Rice

5) 15 yard gain Berrian

6) Incomplete pass Harvin

7) -2 yard gain Berrian

8) Dropped pick undercutting Rice..incomplete

9) Incomplete pass Rice

So really the question is as the starting LCB how many times will he be matched up on Wayne. I know they will move him around, so rethinking how many opportunities he will be matched against Greer. All in all this not a prop I am interested in being involved with.

Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
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Posted: 1/30/2010 12:24:58 AM

Piles... you leaning to NO in this one?

Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
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Posted: 1/30/2010 12:25:48 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by nc1capper:

OVER 2.5  TV views of Archie Manning during game,,,,,,Get ya some

 

is this prop really available somewhere?

tooez PM tooez
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Posted: 1/30/2010 12:26:48 AM

JackedUp: I'm not surprised by that, 8.5 is a lot of attempts for Bush. I also wouldn't play Pierre Thomas at 14.5 as that seems spot on. That's why I like my line

BustinPiles:  thanks for the info. I will most likely lay off the Wayne receiving yards prop.  

tooez PM tooez
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Posted: 1/30/2010 12:28:34 AM
Ice: LOL I'm sure it's available somewhere. If you can bet on the coin toss and the national anthem you can bet on anything.
BustinPiles PM BustinPiles
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Posted: 1/30/2010 12:34:52 AM

Ice- I have a future on New Orleans at 15-1 that i have not hedged at any point this postseason. I want to see a weather forecast midweek as I may decide to protect my investment and assure some + gain with a Colts pick and Over. People say Manning is going to carve up this defense.. and in the times the Colts have played the Saints he has had his way(big time) but on the other side of the coin there is not that much I think that is intimidating about this Colts defense aside form Freeney and Mathis either.... for crying out loud they brought in Jason David

and McKenzie for a look see at Cb's this week.

Unsure if I pull the trigger on the hedge at this point. But will be looking to narrow down some prop plays

tooez PM tooez
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Posted: 1/30/2010 1:26:11 AM
wow that blog was pretty interesting. Thanks snakesonaplane
JackedUp PM JackedUp
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Posted: 1/30/2010 9:01:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

Sorry just getting back to reading this thread

Jabari Greer very underrated CB and great free agent acquistion doesn't get the pub of other cornerbacks in the league. Played very well against some elite WR's this season including Fitzgerald, TO, and Calvin Johnson.

 

Article



Im not convinced Greer and the Saints secondary will stop Wayne, in games he played in the opposing No.1 WRs got:

Calvin Johnson - 90 yards
Desean Jackson - 101 yards
Roddy White - 108 yards
Steve Smith - 64 yards
Larry Fitz - 77 yards

o/u 74.5 yrds receiving for the New Orleans born Reggie seems reasonable...




Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
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Posted: 1/31/2010 1:28:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JackedUp:



Im not convinced Greer and the Saints secondary will stop Wayne, in games he played in the opposing No.1 WRs got:

Calvin Johnson - 90 yards
Desean Jackson - 101 yards
Roddy White - 108 yards
Steve Smith - 64 yards
Larry Fitz - 77 yards

o/u 74.5 yrds receiving for the New Orleans born Reggie seems reasonable...




actually... if those numbers are any indication...  O/U 74.5 yds for Reggie Wayne seems like a gimme...

tooez PM tooez
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Posted: 1/31/2010 3:05:58 PM
Just fyi I know it's not much different but sportsbooks moved the number to 77.5. Seems like a lot of people think this is an easy one.  
Gold_Rush PM Gold_Rush
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Posted: 1/31/2010 3:52:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nc1capper:

OVER (142) Natl Anthem,,,,OVER 2.5  TV views of Archie Manning during game,,,,,,Get ya some


sounds like a winner
Gold_Rush PM Gold_Rush
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Posted: 1/31/2010 3:53:04 PM
i wish i could bet on that!!!
tooez PM tooez
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Posted: 1/31/2010 3:58:22 PM

I said I would be narrowing this list down. Here's what I'm thinking after all of your help.

1. Will the game ever be tied after 0-0? Yes +110 (still like it and keeping it.)

2. Saints total 3rd down Conversions: Over 5.5 -125 (Laying off this one. I'll be so drunk by 2nd half I don't want to count.)

3. Saints total rushing yards: Over 100.5 -115 (Still on the fence. Leaning to a play but will make a final decision later this week.)

4. Colts total rushing yards: Under 99.5 -115 (No play)

5. Will there be a score in the first 5 1/2 minutes? Yes +105 (on the fence too. Colts can take a lot of time on opening drives.)

6. Reggie Bush rushing attempts: Over 4.5 -115 (laying off, sorry JackedUp but I like Thomas better.)

7. Pierre Thomas rushing attempts: Over 11.5 -115 (playing for sure.)

8. Joseph Addai longest rush: Over 12.5 yards -115 (playing for sure. Just look at each game, 12 overs 6 unders. The unders were against Bal, Den, Tenn twice, Sea, Stl.)

9. Reggie Wayne total receiving yards: Over 74.5 -115 (no play, I'm seeing better value in others.)

10. Pierre Garcon total receptions: Over 4.5 -115 (Not a recommended play but I've hit it both times this post season so I'll bite.)

So far I'm on #1, #7, #8, and #10 for sure. Might play #3 and/or #5, still looking into them. Thanks again for your help everyone, one more week til Gametime!!!!!

Scooter23 PM Scooter23
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Posted: 2/1/2010 5:11:07 PM
My book has Bush rushing attempts at 3.5-160. Lots of juice but I love it.
Scooter23 PM Scooter23
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Posted: 2/1/2010 5:16:51 PM
Was looking at receptions.   Probably gonna go w Addai's longest rush over 11.5-150.
thegame_66088 PM thegame_66088
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Posted: 2/1/2010 5:30:57 PM
does anyone know what the record was for this years nfl games as far as favorites covering the spread ?
Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 2/2/2010 7:24:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

Sorry just getting back to reading this thread

Jabari Greer very underrated CB and great free agent acquistion doesn't get the pub of other cornerbacks in the league. Played very well against some elite WR's this season including Fitzgerald, TO, and Calvin Johnson.

 

Article

HIgh praise indeed!

Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 2/2/2010 7:30:04 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by thegame_66088:

does anyone know what the record was for this years nfl games as far as favorites covering the spread ?

Do not but would be willing to be that it is 48-52%.

Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 2/2/2010 7:40:44 AM

Hey guys pretty nice thread here. I still believe that Wayne has a big day, but am not  100% convinced. Just went through all the Colt playoff games over the last couple of years and save one or two, he has not hit any home runs. The Colts save the superbowl year, have also not been a great playoff team.  I think the Aints do look to stop Wayne and make the Colts spread it around. This prop is very very tough because MANNING WILL TAKE WHAT IS THERE!

Boy (manning)  will not force anything and who knows what will be there.  Have to admit if they go Greer and do not move him with Wayne then those opposing number one stats stated above look pretty dead on. Wayne should beat  the 2 and 3 corners easy.  This one looks tough though and I like others much more after reconsidering.

Overall, I am going to make a little wager on Reggie.   I will make a large prop wager on Brees over 279.5, this has much more appeal to me. Manning is at 300 and Brees who  leads him most years in yards thrown but does not get the name is 20 yards less. The Colts have faced four top caliber qbs this year....Schaub twice, Brady and Warner all have gone over this number. In a game with the over at 57 (!) and  to me no Dwight Freeney, this is the prop of the game to me.  If the Colts get the lead (as everyone thinks) Brees may get 45 attempts and should go well over this number.

IMHO

GLA

Crash

smokin376 PM smokin376
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Posted: 2/2/2010 9:34:30 AM
I have already locked in these Props as I feel the ball will be tossed around quite frequently in this game and at a high completion percentage:
 
1. Austin Collie Receptions Over 4 -125
2. Austin Collie Over 50.5 Yards -115
3. Drew Brees Completions Over 24.5 -135
4. Peyton Manning Completions Over 25 -130
5. Pierre Garcon Receptions Over 4.5 -140
6. Pierre Garcon Over 60.5 Yards -120
7. Reggie Bush Rushing + Receiving Yards Over 53.5 -135
8. First Score Of The Game Will Be FG or Safety +190
9. Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times - NO +145
10. Largest Lead At Any Time Under 16.5 Pts. +100
11. Marquis Colston Completions Over 4.5 -145
 
Good luck with everyones picks and GO SAINTS!
tooez PM tooez
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Posted: 2/2/2010 6:43:30 PM

Scooter:  GL with that Addai over, sucks your juice is so high but I still like it.

Crash: I like that Brees over prop, that's the only way to go if your playing the QB yards. Only reason I'm not is because I think the only way Saints win is to slow the game down and keep Colts offense off the field. And the only way to do that is with long drives, which is why I've liked both Thomas and Bush rushing attempts over from the start.  

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