1) The Rams can play "respectable" at times at home but have been ugly on the road. Rams are coming off a 38-10 loss to the Vikings, which was a bigger margin than it should have been. Other than a pitiful game against the Redskins, STL has not even been in a game on the road so far this year.
2) Jacksonville is coming off a horrendous 41-0 beating in Seattle. While that beating can not just be explained by the long travel to one of the toughest stadiums to play, it is just a great setup for a line this week against a far more inferior opponent.
3) MJD is furious, and he will play as such this week against a horrible run defense. Jacksonville will have had an interesting film session to review, and I am confident they will dominate the line of scrimmage.
Jags at home, give the points (seen -9.5 and -10), and .
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Like this game for a few reasons:
1) The Rams can play "respectable" at times at home but have been ugly on the road. Rams are coming off a 38-10 loss to the Vikings, which was a bigger margin than it should have been. Other than a pitiful game against the Redskins, STL has not even been in a game on the road so far this year.
2) Jacksonville is coming off a horrendous 41-0 beating in Seattle. While that beating can not just be explained by the long travel to one of the toughest stadiums to play, it is just a great setup for a line this week against a far more inferior opponent.
3) MJD is furious, and he will play as such this week against a horrible run defense. Jacksonville will have had an interesting film session to review, and I am confident they will dominate the line of scrimmage.
Jags at home, give the points (seen -9.5 and -10), and .
Seems too easy fading the Rams (looking at their schedule, I think they will go 0-16), I would be more comfortable laying less than 10, I'm a little afraid that maybe Jags aren't that good, or Rams may wake up one day (though I agree with you it's unlikely to be on the road). I'm limiting my exposure by teasing Jags down to -2.5 on teasers wth others I like.
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Seems too easy fading the Rams (looking at their schedule, I think they will go 0-16), I would be more comfortable laying less than 10, I'm a little afraid that maybe Jags aren't that good, or Rams may wake up one day (though I agree with you it's unlikely to be on the road). I'm limiting my exposure by teasing Jags down to -2.5 on teasers wth others I like.
Horrible Rams run defense? I watch the team every game and have to disagree on that count. I don't have any stats in front of me but I know they pretty much shut down Portis, Grant and Peterson.I think they shut down Jones except for a huge gain that tilted his YPC average. Their run D is way better than the last few years.
You say the JAX loss last week tilted the line lower than it should be? I say the Rams blowout last week (which like you wrote shouldn't have been as bad as it was) inflated the line. This is a one win team here that has been blown out almost as often as the Rams laying double digits. Talk about a smack in the face.
I think the value lies with St. Louis here. And this is from a guy who made MIN -9.5 last week his play of the year so far. I even think the Rams are worth a shot at +450 or w/e the ML is. Regardless of the final score they have been in almost every game this season until the fourth quarter. They can run and stop the run, it is just passing on both sides that kills them. And this weekend they face a pass D even worse than their own. If what I have read is true the stadium should be half empty so homefield isn't as big a factor as usual.
I think this might be their first win of the season. They will win one sometime. Why not vs the Jags of all teams?
But GL, will probably just make a small play on them myself and give them one more chance. I think this team is going in the right direction and like their chances of losing by ten or less (I'll buy the hook). It will be interesting and a good gauge of just how bad the Rams truly are. I think it is the Colts the following week who are a virtual lock to blow us out, not this team.
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Horrible Rams run defense? I watch the team every game and have to disagree on that count. I don't have any stats in front of me but I know they pretty much shut down Portis, Grant and Peterson.I think they shut down Jones except for a huge gain that tilted his YPC average. Their run D is way better than the last few years.
You say the JAX loss last week tilted the line lower than it should be? I say the Rams blowout last week (which like you wrote shouldn't have been as bad as it was) inflated the line. This is a one win team here that has been blown out almost as often as the Rams laying double digits. Talk about a smack in the face.
I think the value lies with St. Louis here. And this is from a guy who made MIN -9.5 last week his play of the year so far. I even think the Rams are worth a shot at +450 or w/e the ML is. Regardless of the final score they have been in almost every game this season until the fourth quarter. They can run and stop the run, it is just passing on both sides that kills them. And this weekend they face a pass D even worse than their own. If what I have read is true the stadium should be half empty so homefield isn't as big a factor as usual.
I think this might be their first win of the season. They will win one sometime. Why not vs the Jags of all teams?
But GL, will probably just make a small play on them myself and give them one more chance. I think this team is going in the right direction and like their chances of losing by ten or less (I'll buy the hook). It will be interesting and a good gauge of just how bad the Rams truly are. I think it is the Colts the following week who are a virtual lock to blow us out, not this team.
I was at the Jags blowout in Seattle and had a field pass. The Jags looked like me--a tourist. They were looking around and pointing at buildings, the space needle. They were a joke, epitomized by Sims-Walker's night out. It was a "momma said there'd be days like this" days.
That being said, that plane ride home is long and the week is long when you lose 41-0. Take that, plus one of the bottom 3 teams coming into town and I see a repeat of the butt whipping that the Jags put on the Titans.
Jags -9.5. You could adjust this line for better odds and still cover.
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I was at the Jags blowout in Seattle and had a field pass. The Jags looked like me--a tourist. They were looking around and pointing at buildings, the space needle. They were a joke, epitomized by Sims-Walker's night out. It was a "momma said there'd be days like this" days.
That being said, that plane ride home is long and the week is long when you lose 41-0. Take that, plus one of the bottom 3 teams coming into town and I see a repeat of the butt whipping that the Jags put on the Titans.
Jags -9.5. You could adjust this line for better odds and still cover.
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