Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: **Sunday NFL Football** *Other Picks* 23-11-0 overall (68%)
talent888 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
talent888
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 708
Location:
#1
Posted: 12/5/2008 1:45:48 PM

Alright, looking at some other games this weekend…

 

Jets -4 / 49’ers

 

Lucky for us the Jets took a loss week and the Niners won.  Because, if it were the opposite, the line would be a lot higher and now we are getting some good value at Jets -4. 

 

Two not statistical factors that lean me early to the Jet’s are “Favre” and the fact that they need to win and are in the playoff hunt still.

 

For San Francisco to be successful, they need to run the ball successfully.  This will be a tough task for them as the Jets are 4th in the NFL in rushing yards are allowed.  With the rushing game being stalled for San Fran, they will have to turn to Hill for them to win here, and Hill and company are nothing special.  The Jet’s also bring in 35 sacks and this will present a huge problem for the Niner’s.  Defensive Edge Huge for the Jets.

 

Now, looking at a 44% 3rd down conversion rate, the Jet’s will look to get a few more possession because the Niner’s bring in a poor 35% 3rd down conversion rate.  This is a huge advantage for Jet’s as they will see more possessions, which even benefits their D by giving them more rest.  San Fran is even allowing teams to convert 40% of the time on 3rd downs. 

 

Another advantage for the Jet’s is that they are 2nd in the NFL in getting into the Redzone and when they do, they score a TD more than 50% of the time.  That is huge.  Defensivly, these two teams are about equal in the Redzone.

 

The side to be on here is the Jet’s

 

Other Pick   Jet’s -4

 

quote
talent888 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
talent888
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 708
Location:
#2
Posted: 12/5/2008 1:46:26 PM

On to the GB / Houston Game, yes, I won a nice little chunk on Houston last Monday and I hope to win some more this week with a game that involves them.  However, this time I will be going against them when they go into GB.

 

One big thing that sticks out when looking at this game is that Houston is dead last in the NFL for allowing the opposing team to get a TD when that team gets into the Redzone.  And, it just so happens that when GB gets into the Redzone, they score a TD on more than 60% of their possessions.  Huuuuuuuge!

 

Houston also allows teams to convert 44% of their 3rd downs, while GB allows only 37%.  With GB convering 44% of their 3rd downs, I see them having a few more possessions.

 

Add all this up to GB playing at home and in desparate need for a win, I feel that the side to be on here is with GB

 

Other Pick   GB   –5.5

 

 

 

--------------------------

Golden Picks 13-4-0 (76%)

Other Picks 10-7-0 (59%)

Overall 23-11-0 (68%)

--------------------------

quote
texancapper send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
texancapper
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 14224
Location: United States
#3
Posted: 12/5/2008 1:47:30 PM
quote
BigHans send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
BigHans
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 582
Location: Minnesota
#4
Posted: 12/5/2008 2:05:28 PM
Love GB.
 
Im staying away from Jets.  It looks like one of those games you could cap till the cows come home and it appears the Jets have a major advantage.  And then the Niners play their best game of the year and the moose comes in.  Thats my feeling on this one, for some reason.
 
Anyway, GL man, you are usually money.
quote
BigHans send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
BigHans
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 582
Location: Minnesota
#5
Posted: 12/5/2008 2:31:08 PM
Never mind, youre completley safe.  Peter King wrote that Shaun Hill was going to "strafe" the Jet's secondary.  The Jets roll.
quote
Doxshund send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Doxshund
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1970
Location: Nevada
#6
Posted: 12/5/2008 2:31:48 PM
I like the Jets too
I like the over in the GB Game
quote
usikbasterd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
usikbasterd
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Virginia
#7
Posted: 12/5/2008 6:20:35 PM
i love gb....another note to consider is that i dont think texans are used to playing in the cold
 
 
GLUCK TO YOU TALENT
quote
SonicBlue send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
SonicBlue
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 622
Location: Nevada
#8
Posted: 12/5/2008 10:09:12 PM
Good write up.  Both SF and Hou hooked us up with value picks through their wins this past week.  Houston is coming off a short week, and Green Bay is not the place to go to start a winning streak.  It's now or never for the Packers and I think you'll see them finally put together a complete game. 
 
on both.  Nice one, brotha!
quote
malibusurfer send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
malibusurfer
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 224
Location:
#9
Posted: 12/5/2008 10:16:52 PM
love them booth.  you called the sd game when everyone here was taking oak. great call.  go against the herd.

both will win.  
quote
LizardKing23 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LizardKing23
Participation Meter
Covers Rehab
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 348
Location: Botswana
#10
Posted: 12/5/2008 10:29:38 PM
i believe that 3rd down conversions and redzone % are the biggest factors in capping games.  you are a solid capper.  thank you and good luck.
quote
alpagoode send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
alpagoode
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 415
Location: California
#11
Posted: 12/6/2008 1:46:13 PM

Was originally leaning Jets, but because I am a homer, wasn't sure I was being partial in looking at the game. Thanks for adding another opinion with a great write up.

Going with the Jets

Good luck

quote
WAIWAI send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WAIWAI
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 390
Location: Minnesota
#12
Posted: 12/6/2008 5:28:25 PM
TALENT,

 ACCORDING TO THE LAST POST. YOU HAVE TENN FAVORS -13.5 , SO IF I WANNA A PARLAY, COULD I PICK THEM WITH GREENBAY AND JETS??? IT MEANS TENN-13.5 ; GREENBAY-5.5; AND JETS-4.5( MY LINE IS -.4.5 , IS THAT A PROBLEMS ? I AM AFRAID OF HALF POINT, MAN. LET ME KNOW OKAY THANKS MAN


BOL


quote
The1nonly716 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
The1nonly716
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 29
Location:
#13
Posted: 12/6/2008 5:56:33 PM
Nice Write ups like usually. Good with you on both of them. A little iffy about the Green Bay cuz i think Houston will make it close. But definetly like the Jets.

BOL Talent. I'm gonna be posting up my picks pretty soon. My overall record is 21-10
quote
WizrduvOdz
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
WizrduvOdz
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 3087
Location: New Jersey
#14
Posted: 12/6/2008 8:47:14 PM
Like the GB pik, but I'm not so sure the Jets shut down Gore. I think they win, with evryone on the Jets, why hasnt the line gone up?
 
GL tho
quote
swope19 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
swope19
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 326
Location: Maryland
#15
Posted: 12/6/2008 11:03:10 PM
i likey
quote
PasqualeF send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
PasqualeF
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 87
Location: Nevada
#16
Posted: 12/7/2008 12:11:59 AM
Talent and Hans thankyou for posting the writeups and giving everyone your analysis. In plain english it cuts through the crap and helps to make an informed descision. That coupled with my knowledge and gut feelings on Week 14 made me come up with this game plan ...So my plays are as follows.
Greenbay -6
Miami +1
Tenn -13.5
 
Teaser is as follows
Giants -2
Bengals +18
Jets +2
KC +13
Pitts +3
 
So now if Jupiter aligns with Mars and Venus doesnt get in the way , and cats and dogs dont sleep together, and the teams that Ive chosen actually show up to play, I think Ive got a 1 in 50 shot to win.
 
Good Luck to all and enjoy the games.....
and again thanks guys....
 
BOL
Pasquale
 
quote
AznClubHead send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AznClubHead
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 147
Location:
#17
Posted: 12/7/2008 12:19:58 AM
Green Bay I feel has a terrible rush defense... Slaton may be able to run all over them... granted not sure how the weather will affect the Houston team..
quote
talent888 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
talent888
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 708
Location:
#18
Posted: 12/7/2008 10:57:38 AM
Alright, heading out to the Cardinal game now..  Adding 2 more Other plays...
 
Arizona / St. Louis  Over 48
 
 
Teaser - 10 point
Den +1
NE  +3
Minn PK
 
 
Good Luck everyone and lets take some cash from these books!!!
 
 
quote
vegasthrowdown send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
vegasthrowdown
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3943
Location: California
#19
Posted: 12/7/2008 10:59:25 AM
good luck bro
quote
madrice1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
madrice1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 1683
Location:
#20
Posted: 12/7/2008 12:20:42 PM
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.