Actually I just read something above that I want to comment on, so I'll add this. CD329 said you have no way to know if a line move may have been caused by a poorly informed bettor who may have a lot of money to blow or a professional.
Using an example from baseball because that's my area of expertise, I would ask this question. Do you think an uninformed bettor with a lot of money and a desire to gamble is more likely to lay a huge sum on the Kansas City Royals or the New York Yankees? The dumb rich guy is subject to the same biases the poor rich guy is. They believe the ESPN hype of the big market teams with flashy offenses. Reverse line moves on teams in small markets, with no big name players are much more likely to come from a professional bettor laying a large wager.
Actually I just read something above that I want to comment on, so I'll add this. CD329 said you have no way to know if a line move may have been caused by a poorly informed bettor who may have a lot of money to blow or a professional.
Using an example from baseball because that's my area of expertise, I would ask this question. Do you think an uninformed bettor with a lot of money and a desire to gamble is more likely to lay a huge sum on the Kansas City Royals or the New York Yankees? The dumb rich guy is subject to the same biases the poor rich guy is. They believe the ESPN hype of the big market teams with flashy offenses. Reverse line moves on teams in small markets, with no big name players are much more likely to come from a professional bettor laying a large wager.
no one has addressed this concept directly so i am reposting it
assuming Sportsinsights posts real numbers from the low tier books (squares), and that 80% of gamblers lose their money, wouldn't fading very popular picks from these people be profitable in the long run?
this also assumes that the 80% losers do so not because of bad money management and stupid parlays but by routinely picking losers. i think this might be the problem with the whole concept because money management probably kills more accounts than anything.
but if those assumptions are correct, this would mean a slow advantage in the long run.
thoughts?
I know if I am running a book, theres no way i would give out accurate information that shows what % of people are betting on what particular event. Plus, I don't think we should take the numbers we see for having any value because most of the people who bet on sports are doing it on impulse or simply for casual fun. This whole discussion reminds me of the electronic board at the roulette tables. It shows the past numbers so people will be enticed to guess (and wager) a possible trend. Its simply to create action. Just my thoughts right or wrong.
no one has addressed this concept directly so i am reposting it
assuming Sportsinsights posts real numbers from the low tier books (squares), and that 80% of gamblers lose their money, wouldn't fading very popular picks from these people be profitable in the long run?
this also assumes that the 80% losers do so not because of bad money management and stupid parlays but by routinely picking losers. i think this might be the problem with the whole concept because money management probably kills more accounts than anything.
but if those assumptions are correct, this would mean a slow advantage in the long run.
thoughts?
I know if I am running a book, theres no way i would give out accurate information that shows what % of people are betting on what particular event. Plus, I don't think we should take the numbers we see for having any value because most of the people who bet on sports are doing it on impulse or simply for casual fun. This whole discussion reminds me of the electronic board at the roulette tables. It shows the past numbers so people will be enticed to guess (and wager) a possible trend. Its simply to create action. Just my thoughts right or wrong.
"I've personally profited about 150 units over the last two years selectively fading public consensus plays in MLB and the NHL. Those are real bets that I made and cashed, not some trend that I went back and uncovered in hindsight. I have no doubt the value in this strategy is slowly leaking away and will become more inconsistent as more people catch on to it. But it has worked and it was not a fluke."
This is absolutely correct selectively fading the public.This still works.I bowl on monday night and have about 5 or 6 losers that bet NFL.When they all come up to me and say I love this game tonight or how can you not bet so so.When they are all on the same side it loses at a high percentage.Now remember these 6 I am talking above your average public bettor here that wagers between 100-300 a game that are losers year end and year out.
"I've personally profited about 150 units over the last two years selectively fading public consensus plays in MLB and the NHL. Those are real bets that I made and cashed, not some trend that I went back and uncovered in hindsight. I have no doubt the value in this strategy is slowly leaking away and will become more inconsistent as more people catch on to it. But it has worked and it was not a fluke."
This is absolutely correct selectively fading the public.This still works.I bowl on monday night and have about 5 or 6 losers that bet NFL.When they all come up to me and say I love this game tonight or how can you not bet so so.When they are all on the same side it loses at a high percentage.Now remember these 6 I am talking above your average public bettor here that wagers between 100-300 a game that are losers year end and year out.
So the key is SELECTIVELY fading the public when most everything lines up.Not just looking at sportsinsights numbers and plain fade the numbers WILL NOT WORK.But using it as a tool with other factors at your disposal does work.Again i don't know how sportsinsights do it but their numbers are close to the percentages what real books have or at least real books i know
So the key is SELECTIVELY fading the public when most everything lines up.Not just looking at sportsinsights numbers and plain fade the numbers WILL NOT WORK.But using it as a tool with other factors at your disposal does work.Again i don't know how sportsinsights do it but their numbers are close to the percentages what real books have or at least real books i know
"I've personally profited about 150 units over the last two years selectively fading public consensus plays in MLB and the NHL. Those are real bets that I made and cashed, not some trend that I went back and uncovered in hindsight. I have no doubt the value in this strategy is slowly leaking away and will become more inconsistent as more people catch on to it. But it has worked and it was not a fluke."
This is absolutely correct selectively fading the public.This still works.I bowl on monday night and have about 5 or 6 losers that bet NFL.When they all come up to me and say I love this game tonight or how can you not bet so so.When they are all on the same side it loses at a high percentage.Now remember these 6 I am talking above your average public bettor here that wagers between 100-300 a game that are losers year end and year out.
And once again, this post and the post you made right after this one are EXACTLY WHAT I AM NOT LOOKING FOR.
This is the definition of anecdotal personal experience evidence - not a single statistic to back up what you state - and actually saying "using it as a tool" without telling us HOW to use it as a tool.
I never met a hater better than me. I am on twitter
"I've personally profited about 150 units over the last two years selectively fading public consensus plays in MLB and the NHL. Those are real bets that I made and cashed, not some trend that I went back and uncovered in hindsight. I have no doubt the value in this strategy is slowly leaking away and will become more inconsistent as more people catch on to it. But it has worked and it was not a fluke."
This is absolutely correct selectively fading the public.This still works.I bowl on monday night and have about 5 or 6 losers that bet NFL.When they all come up to me and say I love this game tonight or how can you not bet so so.When they are all on the same side it loses at a high percentage.Now remember these 6 I am talking above your average public bettor here that wagers between 100-300 a game that are losers year end and year out.
And once again, this post and the post you made right after this one are EXACTLY WHAT I AM NOT LOOKING FOR.
This is the definition of anecdotal personal experience evidence - not a single statistic to back up what you state - and actually saying "using it as a tool" without telling us HOW to use it as a tool.
Sorry pal, those are not listed above in the info by sportsinsights.
Where does pinnacle give any of this info out? Please show me.
I was quoting the above listed sportsbooks in this thread quoted from sportsinsights themselves. Please tell me where you can get this info from the 3 books you list.
Um, register for an account and login. You can select the books you want to see the %'s on.
Sorry pal, those are not listed above in the info by sportsinsights.
Where does pinnacle give any of this info out? Please show me.
I was quoting the above listed sportsbooks in this thread quoted from sportsinsights themselves. Please tell me where you can get this info from the 3 books you list.
Um, register for an account and login. You can select the books you want to see the %'s on.
Sorry, if you have an SI account you can customize which books you want to have the lines displayed from. From the SI web site they do provide a listing of participating books.
However, to pretend the %'s at Cris or Pinnacle (why you think Pinnacle is some magical place when they don't accept us action is beyond me) are dramatically different is idiotic. I've kept a chart every week in college football of the bet %'s provided by SI and by sportsbook.com and the variance is rarely higher than 5% for any game.
Sorry, if you have an SI account you can customize which books you want to have the lines displayed from. From the SI web site they do provide a listing of participating books.
However, to pretend the %'s at Cris or Pinnacle (why you think Pinnacle is some magical place when they don't accept us action is beyond me) are dramatically different is idiotic. I've kept a chart every week in college football of the bet %'s provided by SI and by sportsbook.com and the variance is rarely higher than 5% for any game.
Disco, yeah, post a link to that book, I'd be interested to see that.
To vanzack, I wrote that post you quoted to respond to your question
about whether I thought the profits in fading consensus plays would
continue in the NHL and MLB. I already posted numbers that backed up
what I was saying. There are a shitload of posts in this thread so I'll assume you forgot I had done that. And the second paragraph is not
from me at all. I don't bowl.
The post wasn't intended to be anecdotal or whatever, I was giving my
take on why I got the results I did. If you want a direct example of how
I use the bet %'s and line moves here's something I posted a couple
days ago in another thread:
I keep a list of how much money every
team has won/lost for the year on the moneyline. I also look at public
betting percentages and odds comparisons between square books and sharp
books. Here's an example from today's
games. Nashville is +1.08 units on the season. They are playing Buffalo
who is -5.54 units for the year. The line opened at -165 or -170 and
has dropped back to -145 or -150 at some books despite roughly 70-75%
of bets coming in on Buf. The line has moved from -165 to -170 at
SportsInteraction (square book due to very low limits) while dropping
20 cents at betcris and pinnacle (sharp books). Looking at this I think
you can say that the sharps are on an undervalued Nash team and the
favorite loving public is on an overpriced Buf team.
The teams had identical W-L records (11-12) coming into the game, but a
bettor backing Nash in every game would have turned a profit and with
Buf lost over 5 units. Obviously the prices on Buf have been higher
than their play warranted. The fact that the public was still backing
them at a 70-75% clip was a signal to me that linesmakers still had an
incentive to overprice them. The line moves were a signal that there
was probably some sharp money coming in on Nash, which supports the
opinion that there was value on them. Considering all that, I thought it
was a pretty good situation.
And Nash won 2-0 which doesn't prove anything. I'm not saying all this
info was suggesting they would come out and play their best game of the
year and rout Buf (both teams played pretty poorly actually). It was
simply suggesting that the game was mispriced due to public bias.
I paid a tax for having to wait for the sharps to weigh in before I was
sure what to do. The smartest bettors took Nash early and got them at
+155 or +150. I got them at +145 when that was the best price available
later in the day.
Don't tell me this is just anecdotal vanzack, I already posted the
results of using this strategy over the past two years. I'm responding
to your claim that no one can explain why it makes sense to use bet % and line move info. If you look at all my posts in this thread I think I've explained it pretty clearly. And remember that I agree with you that this
strategy does not work long term in the NFL.
Disco, yeah, post a link to that book, I'd be interested to see that.
To vanzack, I wrote that post you quoted to respond to your question
about whether I thought the profits in fading consensus plays would
continue in the NHL and MLB. I already posted numbers that backed up
what I was saying. There are a shitload of posts in this thread so I'll assume you forgot I had done that. And the second paragraph is not
from me at all. I don't bowl.
The post wasn't intended to be anecdotal or whatever, I was giving my
take on why I got the results I did. If you want a direct example of how
I use the bet %'s and line moves here's something I posted a couple
days ago in another thread:
I keep a list of how much money every
team has won/lost for the year on the moneyline. I also look at public
betting percentages and odds comparisons between square books and sharp
books. Here's an example from today's
games. Nashville is +1.08 units on the season. They are playing Buffalo
who is -5.54 units for the year. The line opened at -165 or -170 and
has dropped back to -145 or -150 at some books despite roughly 70-75%
of bets coming in on Buf. The line has moved from -165 to -170 at
SportsInteraction (square book due to very low limits) while dropping
20 cents at betcris and pinnacle (sharp books). Looking at this I think
you can say that the sharps are on an undervalued Nash team and the
favorite loving public is on an overpriced Buf team.
The teams had identical W-L records (11-12) coming into the game, but a
bettor backing Nash in every game would have turned a profit and with
Buf lost over 5 units. Obviously the prices on Buf have been higher
than their play warranted. The fact that the public was still backing
them at a 70-75% clip was a signal to me that linesmakers still had an
incentive to overprice them. The line moves were a signal that there
was probably some sharp money coming in on Nash, which supports the
opinion that there was value on them. Considering all that, I thought it
was a pretty good situation.
And Nash won 2-0 which doesn't prove anything. I'm not saying all this
info was suggesting they would come out and play their best game of the
year and rout Buf (both teams played pretty poorly actually). It was
simply suggesting that the game was mispriced due to public bias.
I paid a tax for having to wait for the sharps to weigh in before I was
sure what to do. The smartest bettors took Nash early and got them at
+155 or +150. I got them at +145 when that was the best price available
later in the day.
Don't tell me this is just anecdotal vanzack, I already posted the
results of using this strategy over the past two years. I'm responding
to your claim that no one can explain why it makes sense to use bet % and line move info. If you look at all my posts in this thread I think I've explained it pretty clearly. And remember that I agree with you that this
strategy does not work long term in the NFL.
And once again, this post and the post you made right after this one are EXACTLY WHAT I AM NOT LOOKING FOR.
This is the definition of anecdotal personal experience evidence - not a single statistic to back up what you state - and actually saying "using it as a tool" without telling us HOW to use it as a tool.
Ok where do I start!Again don't know how they are able to get their numbers for the public,steam and smart moves etc...It seems to work if used right.
Here's how I used it as a tool i will take you step by step.
1.I look at the games when the lines come out and see what jumps offf the page,
2.I will handicap those games above along with other games
3.I will watch the linemovements,public,steam and smart plays on SI and with locals
4.Now I have handicapped a game and like it's as a play.Then i look for the right line movement over 2 pts.
5.Now here's here i don't know how they do this if it's bogus or what but they provide you with steam and smart moves.I have noticed if there are 5+ smart plays and 2+ steam moves with no steam or smart play on the other team on a line movement going opposite of the public in games that i have handicapped as a play it is winning at rate of 68%.
On another note they give you the records of each smart and steam play throughout the year with each off shore they use and those records are correct.So steam moves from certain offshore are more powerful than othe others.
Example lets take NCAABB right now a steam move from Olympic is 33-15(68%)Betonline 15-4(78%) so far where there are there are some not as good like 5dimes 18-20(47%)Grande 4-7(36%)
And once again, this post and the post you made right after this one are EXACTLY WHAT I AM NOT LOOKING FOR.
This is the definition of anecdotal personal experience evidence - not a single statistic to back up what you state - and actually saying "using it as a tool" without telling us HOW to use it as a tool.
Ok where do I start!Again don't know how they are able to get their numbers for the public,steam and smart moves etc...It seems to work if used right.
Here's how I used it as a tool i will take you step by step.
1.I look at the games when the lines come out and see what jumps offf the page,
2.I will handicap those games above along with other games
3.I will watch the linemovements,public,steam and smart plays on SI and with locals
4.Now I have handicapped a game and like it's as a play.Then i look for the right line movement over 2 pts.
5.Now here's here i don't know how they do this if it's bogus or what but they provide you with steam and smart moves.I have noticed if there are 5+ smart plays and 2+ steam moves with no steam or smart play on the other team on a line movement going opposite of the public in games that i have handicapped as a play it is winning at rate of 68%.
On another note they give you the records of each smart and steam play throughout the year with each off shore they use and those records are correct.So steam moves from certain offshore are more powerful than othe others.
Example lets take NCAABB right now a steam move from Olympic is 33-15(68%)Betonline 15-4(78%) so far where there are there are some not as good like 5dimes 18-20(47%)Grande 4-7(36%)
1. Where does a company like sportsinsights get their numbers?
There is a program to import the numbers from different sites.
2. Why would any sportsbook give up to sportsinsights (or anyone like them) any information about betting patterns?
Information makes people actually feel good about their bets?
lots of people like better with the public trend?
3. What type of sportsbook gives up these numbers? If crappy sportsbooks with 500 dolar limits are the main contributors, what good is that? Does pinnacle really give out these numbers? Try walking up to a Vegas sportsbook and ask the manager about their handle - let me know what they say....
Cant compare sportsbooks in vegas with online books.
4. Think about the business model of sportsinsights. Spread a popular belief that you know more than the average gambler, then charge for that info - sounds a lot like a tout in different clothes if you ask me. Explain sportsinsights motivation to be forthright in any capacity.
5. Assuming the numbers are real, and from a real sporstbook, and from legitimate sportsbooks - what do they mean? What - specifically - do you do with them and why would that make any sense?
6. Do people who bet more money win at a higher percentage than those who dont bet as much?
7. Please provide any history, statistics, or a model of when to use the numbers and how. Not a vage answer - but specifics - with backup. Example: When a team is 80% or higher, and the line has moved 1 point in the opposite direction, that team wins at a 58.5% rate over the past 5 years.
I got bored after the 3 question... How long did it take you to actually think about this? Wait.... How do you have this much time in life anyway?
1. Where does a company like sportsinsights get their numbers?
There is a program to import the numbers from different sites.
2. Why would any sportsbook give up to sportsinsights (or anyone like them) any information about betting patterns?
Information makes people actually feel good about their bets?
lots of people like better with the public trend?
3. What type of sportsbook gives up these numbers? If crappy sportsbooks with 500 dolar limits are the main contributors, what good is that? Does pinnacle really give out these numbers? Try walking up to a Vegas sportsbook and ask the manager about their handle - let me know what they say....
Cant compare sportsbooks in vegas with online books.
4. Think about the business model of sportsinsights. Spread a popular belief that you know more than the average gambler, then charge for that info - sounds a lot like a tout in different clothes if you ask me. Explain sportsinsights motivation to be forthright in any capacity.
5. Assuming the numbers are real, and from a real sporstbook, and from legitimate sportsbooks - what do they mean? What - specifically - do you do with them and why would that make any sense?
6. Do people who bet more money win at a higher percentage than those who dont bet as much?
7. Please provide any history, statistics, or a model of when to use the numbers and how. Not a vage answer - but specifics - with backup. Example: When a team is 80% or higher, and the line has moved 1 point in the opposite direction, that team wins at a 58.5% rate over the past 5 years.
I got bored after the 3 question... How long did it take you to actually think about this? Wait.... How do you have this much time in life anyway?
How long did it take me to actually think about this?
As much time as it takes.
How do I have this much time in life anyway?
Because it is my job, I take pride in it, and I care about making money. I understand if this is your hobby you might not care, but since this is more than that to me I take great interest in this.
Its better than being a somali hijacker.
I never met a hater better than me. I am on twitter
How long did it take me to actually think about this?
As much time as it takes.
How do I have this much time in life anyway?
Because it is my job, I take pride in it, and I care about making money. I understand if this is your hobby you might not care, but since this is more than that to me I take great interest in this.
How long did it take me to actually think about this?
As much time as it takes.
How do I have this much time in life anyway?
Because it is my job, I take pride in it, and I care about making money. I understand if this is your hobby you might not care, but since this is more than that to me I take great interest in this.
Its better than being a somali hijacker.
Thanks for the clarification........how can this be your job because the picks you post do not result in profit earned? I ask that seriously.
How long did it take me to actually think about this?
As much time as it takes.
How do I have this much time in life anyway?
Because it is my job, I take pride in it, and I care about making money. I understand if this is your hobby you might not care, but since this is more than that to me I take great interest in this.
Its better than being a somali hijacker.
Thanks for the clarification........how can this be your job because the picks you post do not result in profit earned? I ask that seriously.
Van, here is where I think using SI is useful, especially given some of the points raised by various people in this thread.
CIN/IND: Pinny opened at -14 and is showing 70% on IND. The current line is -13.5 (+103), CIN is (-111).
Now, there is no way "the rich kid" or casual better with lots of money is picking the 1-10-1 Bengals against the resurging Manning led Colts. IMO, that has to be sharp money keeping that line BELOW the key # of 14, opposite one of the most public teams we've ever seen.
This is an example of where SI & this method can be useful.
Van, here is where I think using SI is useful, especially given some of the points raised by various people in this thread.
CIN/IND: Pinny opened at -14 and is showing 70% on IND. The current line is -13.5 (+103), CIN is (-111).
Now, there is no way "the rich kid" or casual better with lots of money is picking the 1-10-1 Bengals against the resurging Manning led Colts. IMO, that has to be sharp money keeping that line BELOW the key # of 14, opposite one of the most public teams we've ever seen.
This is an example of where SI & this method can be useful.
Disco - I read your post - and please dont take this as disrespectful - but that is really what I describe as anecdotal evidence and personal opinion.
You make lots of assumptions about who is betting the bengals that might or might not be accurate - and your opinion might easily be seen by someone else exactly the opposite.
I never met a hater better than me. I am on twitter
Disco - I read your post - and please dont take this as disrespectful - but that is really what I describe as anecdotal evidence and personal opinion.
You make lots of assumptions about who is betting the bengals that might or might not be accurate - and your opinion might easily be seen by someone else exactly the opposite.
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