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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 2 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop
demapples send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:00:39 PM
"Good Afternoon everybody and welcome to Week 2's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a losing week for the SUCKER BET, bringing the season record to 0-1 ATS.  It was a close game throughout, but Garcia threw a late pick ending all hopes of a SUCKER BET cover.  This weeks pick will be another unpopular choice, but that's what makes it a SUCKER BET!  This week I'm taking the Browns +6.5.  They are hosting their toughest divisional rival; the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Last week the Steelers beat up on an average (IMO) Texans team, as the Browns got beat up by a strong Cowboys team.  The strongest trend against this week's pick is that fact that Pittsburgh have won 15 of the last 18 meetings with the Browns, including nine straight by an average of 15.6 points.  Ouch!  Sounds like a no-brainer, huh?...exactly!  The Browns have some trends in their favor as well.  The Browns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.  The Browns are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss and they are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Some keys to the game that I've indentified include getting Braylon Edwards some catches early in the game.  Pittsburgh was tied for last in the league last years with the fewest interceptions (11).  Another key to game is the return of Joshua Cribbs returning kicks.  Cleveland led the leagues in average kick return yard/game last season.  He was out last week but will be in the lineup this week.  Also of note is the fact that Rothlesberger is nursing a sore shoulder, one that hopefully doesn't feel better anytime soon.  Keeping Willie Parker under control is also of obvious importance.  The lower the total score this week, the better the chances are for the Browns to cover.  Under is 7-0 in Browns last 7 games on grass.  They you have it, Browns +6.5 hosting the Steelers this Sunday night.  Good luck to everyone this week.  See you next week for Week 3's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
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#2
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:04:57 PM
GL
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#3
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:07:45 PM
GL DEMAPPLES ,,HOPE YOU CASH THIS WEEK ,LIKE THAT SUCKERS BET!!!!
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#4
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:10:05 PM
Gl bro...leaning that way myself
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#5
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:12:38 PM
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#6
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:19:41 PM
love it
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#7
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:19:58 PM
I also think the under has a good shot as well
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#8
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:21:05 PM
Nice Call
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#9
Posted: 9/11/2008 2:34:36 PM
like it, but dont have the balls to pull the trigger, as i feel PITT could contend for a SB this year.  I Like the Skins as a sucker bet this week, but ill be rooting for u too
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#10
Posted: 9/11/2008 3:26:43 PM
Big Ben has NEVER lost in the stae of Ohio - in College or the pros.  Does that mean they'll cover 6.5?  Who knows.  But the fact remains, Ben gets the job done in his home state.
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#11
Posted: 9/11/2008 3:38:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PaulKnowsNFL:

Big Ben has NEVER lost in the stae of Ohio - in College or the pros.  Does that mean they'll cover 6.5?  Who knows.  But the fact remains, Ben gets the job done in his home state.
while that may be true, I tend to think that type of thinking is neither here nor there when it comes to betting games. Not very relevant.
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#12
Posted: 9/11/2008 4:00:53 PM
I think you were right last week with TB and probably should have won... it fit the picking system well, this week however, I think there are better spots out there to be a sucker bet...
 
Look at NO @ WAS more closely...think where the public will be, think about the matchups...
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#13
Posted: 9/11/2008 4:03:01 PM
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#14
Posted: 9/11/2008 4:12:48 PM
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#15
Posted: 9/11/2008 4:45:27 PM
sucker bet indy
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#16
Posted: 9/11/2008 5:01:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by UTFootball08:

while that may be true, I tend to think that type of thinking is neither here nor there when it comes to betting games. Not very relevant.

Trends aren't relevant when it comes to betting games?  If you're an NFL QB, you aren't more comfortable playing in a venue where you always have sucess?  I disagree - 100%.  But either way, it should be a good one.  I'm leaning towards PIT at the moment.  If we're talking SU, it's PIT no doubt.

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#17
Posted: 9/11/2008 5:18:11 PM
Play of the week
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#18
Posted: 9/11/2008 5:46:26 PM

SNF -HD -I like the call !

 

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#19
Posted: 9/11/2008 5:59:57 PM
Great write up.  GL!
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#20
Posted: 9/11/2008 6:29:21 PM
Hope your right demapples..but all of the recent history points to a Steeler win and cover.  I hope the Brownies are healthy enough to compete!! 
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#21
Posted: 9/11/2008 6:29:27 PM
Are you guys high? Demapples,

a) You may want to point out that the only home game Cleveland lost last year was to Pittsburgh. Which, im guessing lossing 34-7 accounts for their one ATS loss @ home which you pointed out.
b) They played SF, BUF, HOU, SEA, MIA, BAL and CIN at home last year which explains the solid ATS record. Besides PIT only SEA made the playoffs.
c) A team tends to have a solid ATS record when your team is originally expected to be garbage and they are not. 
c) The cleveland team last year played only THREE playoff teams NE, PIT twice and SEA. They only beat SEA.
d) The team this year is not the same as last year.

Are you kidding me?

Pitt -5.5 


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#22
Posted: 9/11/2008 6:53:58 PM
apples
 
Love to see the public play take a whupping.
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#23
Posted: 9/11/2008 7:16:48 PM
I have a weekly system that will profit at least 11 weeks this year. Last week it went 1-2 but got a bit unlucky with Tampa IMO...
Plays were Tampa +3.5, Cle +7 and Chicago +9 SUW.  The key on the plays is that they will always be ugly dogs and plays that make you say I'm not betting that under any circumstances... It's not for the weak but I assure you it profits.
 
Week 2 its Detroit +3 and Minny +1 Let's see how they fair and good luck to all.
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#24
Posted: 9/11/2008 7:41:57 PM
I saw Pit play Sunday and I saw Cle play....Pit is the play here at 6.5
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#25
Posted: 9/11/2008 7:48:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Clone_Joint:

Are you guys high? Demapples,

a) You may want to point out that the only home game Cleveland lost last year was to Pittsburgh. Which, im guessing lossing 34-7 accounts for their one ATS loss @ home which you pointed out.
b) They played SF, BUF, HOU, SEA, MIA, BAL and CIN at home last year which explains the solid ATS record. Besides PIT only SEA made the playoffs.
c) A team tends to have a solid ATS record when your team is originally expected to be garbage and they are not. 
c) The cleveland team last year played only THREE playoff teams NE, PIT twice and SEA. They only beat SEA.
d) The team this year is not the same as last year.

Are you kidding me?

Pitt -5.5 


 

Couldnt have said it better

Pittsburgh

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