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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: NHL Home Chase and Over/Under system
pistol589 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/7/2011 3:52:28 PM
I've been using a couple of NHL systems with pretty good results over the past few years. The first uses a modified version of the three game home stand chase system that has a running thread on it. I just added few simple filters and additions after back testing.  Bet on a team that has a three game home stand or longer if the opening game closing ML is -120 or higher.  If there is a longer than 3 game home stand and the first game did not qualify, start a chase if the stand has at least 3 games left and the closing ML is -140 or higher.  I've been using a labby line for this system. 

Since the 05-06 results are as follows:

A bets - 356-205
B bets - 114-91
C bets - 61-30

The other system is an over/under system that starts betting the opposite of over or under streaks.  If a team has 3 overs in a row, start betting the under.  If a team has 5 unders in a row, start betting the over.  I back tested this back to the lockout, when shootouts started and no more ties.  I use a martindale system of 1, 2.03, 4.13, 8.39, 17.06, 34.6, & 60.  Those amounts should average out the + & - odds over time. 

Since the 05-06 season annual results would have been:

10-11 - +130 units
09-10 - +157 units
08-09 - +67 units
07-08 - +149 units
06-07 - +156 units
05-60 - +93 units









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#2
Posted: 12/7/2011 3:56:11 PM
There are no plays today.

The Home Stand system record for the year is +8 units as I have been using a pretty safe labby to start out the year.

A - 18-16
B - 9-7
C - 6-1

The only loss being when Florida lost three straight shootouts.


The over under system is currently up 28.6 units for the year.
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potvin
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#3
Posted: 12/7/2011 4:08:22 PM
sounds interesting but when it goes down you get killed!
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#4
Posted: 12/7/2011 11:57:27 PM
pistol thanks for sharing! Questions

1) how many games do you chase the over/under system? 3?
2) can you use a labby with the over/under system?

thanks.
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#5
Posted: 12/8/2011 2:40:46 PM
I chase up to 7 games using the martindale at the amounts listed in my first post. You only have to make the last bet on average once per year.  Money management and making sure you get every bet is crucial to success.  I have made sure to start with a bankroll of at least 100 units, but you should have 150 available.  But most years you can double your bankroll in a season, which I will take every year.
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#6
Posted: 12/8/2011 2:43:53 PM
Plays for 12/8

Home stand - No games unless Columbus closes at -120.

Over/Under - Chicago vs Islanders 3.03 under,
Tampa vs. Rangers 3.03 under,
Vancouver 1 under,
Philadelphia 1 under,
Calgary vs Colorado 3.03 under,
Los Angeles 1 over
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#7
Posted: 12/8/2011 2:47:37 PM
what does those numbers beisde over/under indicate?
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#8
Posted: 12/8/2011 2:50:52 PM
Sorry to answer your second question you probably could use a labby system, because at each level the success rate is roughly 50/50, but with the number of games I think that it would be pretty tough to keep up with.  
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#9
Posted: 12/8/2011 2:52:00 PM
Number of units to bet
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#10
Posted: 12/8/2011 2:53:42 PM
Hey pistol, I'm just curious why you're posting your thread here instead of the systems and strategies section.  A lot of folks who might be interested are going to miss out.
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#11
Posted: 12/8/2011 3:10:09 PM
I was trying to go by the covers team rules in the systems and strategies section that asked to have that section be only for explaining systems not listing daily picks
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#12
Posted: 12/8/2011 11:44:28 PM
nice start
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#13
Posted: 12/9/2011 12:07:17 AM
Wished I had seen this earlier.  Just got home from work.  I will definitely follow tomorrow.  Good start Pistol!
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#14
Posted: 12/9/2011 10:57:59 AM
Picks for 12/9 -

Home stand - No games unless Buffalo closing line makes it to -140

YTD - +6 units

Over/Under - Edmonton 1 under

YTD - +37.4 units
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#15
Posted: 12/9/2011 11:27:22 AM

looking good!

 

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#16
Posted: 12/9/2011 12:40:58 PM
keep postin pistol i like the over/under system
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#17
Posted: 12/9/2011 7:21:27 PM
Buffalo got to -138 which is actually above the -137 I used when I back tested to make sure that I got all home stands where the line might have changed late, so it's a play for me tonight.
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#18
Posted: 12/9/2011 7:27:01 PM
my site has them at -140.  good luck!
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#19
Posted: 12/9/2011 7:30:37 PM
I just came across a system play on the Avs which is very reliable.  I missed it and played Edmonton instead 
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#20
Posted: 12/10/2011 1:19:19 PM

love your o/u system!  any plays for today?

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#21
Posted: 12/10/2011 4:13:21 PM
Plays for 12/10

Home Chase - Nashville A 

YTD - +7 units

Over/Under - Vancouver vs Ottawa 3.03 under
Phoenix 1 under 

YTD - +38.3 units
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#22
Posted: 12/10/2011 11:01:21 PM
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#23
Posted: 12/10/2011 11:19:21 PM
No plays for 12/11

Home stand YTD - +8

Over/Under YTD - +41.1 units
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#24
Posted: 12/11/2011 10:38:27 AM
Nice pick yesterday...
Thank you pistol
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#25
Posted: 12/12/2011 10:01:52 PM
Great system with the Over/Under.  Do you follow any similar systems for other sports?
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