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[Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies |
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smoothd20 |
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#8026 Posted: 4/28/2012 11:30:08 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by crushalot22:
Who is this masked man??? 
I wonder about that myself but hey he has blessed us with some inside knowledge that can help everybody win more money so it's all good for me. Hear that sound? That's straight knowledge that's dropping in here.   |
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smoothd20 |
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#8027 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:00:05 PM  |
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#8028 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:04:24 PM |
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#8029 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:31:24 PM Congrats again to SMOOTHD for getting my system off to a 2-0 start last night! That was some smooth picking there buddy, taking 2 dreadful Cubs and SD teams as dogs on the road!
SmoothD decided to  with the sharps and it paid DIVIDENDS!!!
I know you guys want the sharp plays for today and I will deliver my picks soon. I have a pretty good handle on this first game but was hoping for stronger indicators on my first release, plus I'd hate for my first release to be fading my favorite team!
This is what a sharp does though, puts his feelings aside and goes for the $. Stay tuned for the plays.
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#8030 Posted: 4/28/2012 12:55:55 PM
The line moves are favoring Phi and Miami and both unders.
Miami -9 Miami under 186.5 Phi +8.5 Phi under 175
Special attention to Miami and the under. This is a special case of most busters being on the road dog, yet the home favorite is becoming more expensive. Plus I like taking a favorite and under together, as they are often correlated.
Miami and the under look like the 2 sharpest plays so far, with Phi and the under looking good also.
I like NY as a team and can't see them laying 9 pts to anyone but this is buster mentality and the system says Miami. I just hope this Miami move isn't because of Chandler having the flu, but the indicators are there so I'm listing it as a play. We shall see.
I put 4 picks up so we'll see how they fare. Good luck |
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#8031 Posted: 4/28/2012 1:44:39 PM  GOOD LUCK BOSS |
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#8032 Posted: 4/28/2012 2:23:28 PM
I also broke the rules on taking Chi total since it went back to 175. This did not qualify as a sharp play, just a personal opinion pick.
I am still taking Miami under but taking it at under 187.5. I am also taking Bulls under 87 second half.
I have listed 5 plays so far today but for the sake of tracking the system keep in mind only 2 picks have qualified so far,
Miami -9 and Phi +8.5 |
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#8033 Posted: 4/28/2012 2:28:53 PM
We cannot be breaking rules in our march to Sin City. Guerillas from Captown are trying to overrun us right outside our own gates on this first game. We will stand firm in our resolve and crush the resistance today. Keep in mind 60% is our goal.
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#8034 Posted: 4/28/2012 2:36:27 PM
I was wondering whether I should have shared my system before but now I'm glad I did. If you read it all you will see where I broke the rules and messed up.
We look for consistent line moves in opposition to the consensus. The only picks that have qualified are Phi and Mia. That's it |
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#8035 Posted: 4/28/2012 3:26:03 PM
Phi was originally deemed a no-play since I didn't like them according to rule 3. I stated this pre-game.
The total was also suspect as it moved up late, which disqualified it as a play. Czech was supposed to lay off this game entirely and he didn't, he wanted to post a play and lost site of the goal.
Czech paid the ultimate price for his idiocy and is going 0-2 to start. Way to go Czech |
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#8036 Posted: 4/28/2012 3:33:51 PM
System plays so far today: Phi +8.5 Mia -9 Indi over 191.5
Personal picks so far today: Chi under 175 Mia under 188 |
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#8037 Posted: 4/28/2012 3:40:35 PM |
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booyahz123 |
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#8038 Posted: 4/28/2012 3:48:34 PM
I took the Nats on here
currently in 9th on the MLB contest
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#8039 Posted: 4/28/2012 3:49:45 PM
This in my opinion is the first gem of the system to be seen today, the OKC under. It has dropped significantly even though busters are 2-1 on the over.
Also as mentioned before Indi over looks sharp as well, moving up when the busters like the under. I am riding with
Indi over 191.5 OKC under 193
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booyahz123 |
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#8040 Posted: 4/28/2012 3:56:45 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by booyahz123: Tough loss Smooth. Here is something I noticed tonight you might want to look at. I lost an 8 pick parlay tonight with 1 loss. The loss was Tigers getting 1.5. I took them because they were getting the +1.5 on betus.com and on here they were favored. This has happened to me the last couple of nights. I lost the $10 bet and the win would have been enough to pay for my trip to Vegas in October but I found an angle worth playing(paid 800). When a team is favored here and your book is giving that team the +1.5 the dog on here has not only won but covered the 1.5. Take the team that is the dog on here but a -1.5 at your book
This is a new angle but one I feel is worth looking at
Red Sox fall under this play
My top plays today were Boston Orioles Angels Cards Nats
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#8041 Posted: 4/28/2012 3:58:15 PM |
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#8042 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:02:14 PM
At +175 for the -1.5 thats a nice payout
The angle is
Take the team that is the dog on here but a -1.5 at your book
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#8043 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:02:39 PM
I can go round and round on why I shouldn't have picked the chi game according to the system rules, but that is old news lets look towards the future.
Indi and over both look good, and the OKC under looks the best. I also personally like OKC.
TOTAL PICKS FOR THE DAY:
Phi and under 0-2 Mia and under pending Indi and over pending OKC and under pending
TOTAL PICKS THAT QUALIFY UNDER SYSTEM PARAMETERS (including rule 3 not going against my gut)
Mia -9 Indi -9.5 Indi over 191.5 OKC under 193
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#8044 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:11:01 PM
See guys this is EXACTLY why I don't like moves according to players being out. We had the right side all along with the under, but I disqualified it according to the line action.
If Mia and the under come thru I will be 2-2 headed into tonight's games. This is fine with me as I expect to clean up tonight. Let's go Mia and under. |
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#8045 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:17:22 PM
Chi is my favorite team and according to rule 3 I could not like Phi hence making it a no-play. And then the total went up to 175 also making it a no-play.
Let's make up for lost time and $ tonight. I think you and I seem to have the same ideas about these line moves. I for one have seen the power already and we will be just fine.
Mia and the under are looking good so far. I'm a little worried about Indi since again I think this will be a public play and I'm afraid the line move has too much to do with everyone thinking Orl can't compete without Howard.
I posted Indi and OKC before but I doubt I bet either side. I am going to reflect 8 picks in my record today and that is my fault but only 4 of those picks have qualified as true system plays, and really I could take Indi off that list also however this move is big enough that I am leaving it.
I do very much like the Indi over and OKC under. Those 2 meet ALL the requirements especially the OKC under. Give it a good look and tell me what you think. |
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#8046 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:23:14 PM
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#8047 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:37:05 PM
That's why I shared the system, because I'm prone to making mistakes. If I just post my picks then I have to explain them later lol. Now people on here can judge for themselves whether the posted plays we're in line with the system or not.
I think in fairness PHI did qualify, even though it didn't for me since I didn't like it. But if I were a Phi fan it would have qualified, so I have to eat that one 0-1.
The bulls total did not qualify on any level. I think the MIA under was a solid pick but unfortunately for me did not qualify either. Mia did though for sure, being a progressive and significant line move in opposition to the public being on NY.
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#8048 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:40:54 PM
I think Vegas expected the public to be on chi 60%+, and when they weren't they brought the line down. But really this should mean that 8.5 was the true line and this is not a good excuse for me.
The truth is Phi should have covered. They were down 10 with a minute to go and the ball and Derrick rose out. All they had to do was score their next possession and prob would have covered.
But in basketball it all comes down to the last 2 minutes and they did not perform. Oh well |
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#8049 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:45:59 PM
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#8050 Posted: 4/28/2012 4:52:01 PM |
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