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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
booyahz123
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#8001
Posted: 4/27/2012 9:16:49 PM
based on my baseball system Cubs was the pick in that game.  I have been following the lines in a similar way in baseball.  When I used it I got up to 10th in the MLB contest.  3 days not using the lines I dropped back to 93rd.  After tonight I will be back up there.  right now a potential 15-2 night using this type of play on the line movement

 
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#8002
Posted: 4/27/2012 9:52:17 PM
I haven't posted in here for awhile, but looks like both me & Bama are at W11, at least after St.Louis wins tonight, which they should being up 10-1, he's in 12th I'm in 13th place.  I'm really hoping to get the hoodie at W13, and of course a shot at the 1K at W17.

Has anyone on here won the hoodie before, is it at least nice?
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#8003
Posted: 4/27/2012 9:53:14 PM
I went ahead and bet on SD on Bovada using what I believe this system is saying. Since the public is overwhelmingly on SF and the odds on San Diego seem to be going down. That means the Sharp money is on the Padres so I bet on them. Normally I would have been on the other side of this but let's see how this works.
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#8004
Posted: 4/27/2012 9:57:28 PM
See Smooth, yes, according to my system Cubs would have been the play and you were correct.

Busters were heavily on Philly at the more expensive price and yet the line move favored Cubs, meaning Cubs got more expensive and Phillies cheaper.

Why would Vegas make phillies cheaper when the busters were already all over them at the more expensive price?  That's because they were "bad chalk" and the Cubs were the play.

I need to explain something to you guys:

In baseball and in hockey you deal with mismatches and so they do run lines and puck lines and crazy ml odds. So say for example Phillies are -175 against the Cubs and line drops to -155 even though busters on the Phillies.

Okay fine, we can deduce from this that the Phillies are bad chalk at -175 and the Cubs are the "sharp play" based on the price, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Cubs will win, they are still an underdog and away and could lose.  

This is why I don't bet baseball and hockey. I like dealing with sports like football and basketball that have actual spreads, so when I take a dog as a sharp play my dog has TWO ways to win, 

1) winning outright
2) losing, yet covering the spread.






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#8005
Posted: 4/27/2012 10:05:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trax:

I haven't posted in here for awhile, but looks like both me & Bama are at W11, at least after St.Louis wins tonight, which they should being up 10-1, he's in 12th I'm in 13th place.  I'm really hoping to get the hoodie at W13, and of course a shot at the 1K at W17.

Has anyone on here won the hoodie before, is it at least nice?
 
HOODVILLE HAS BEEN CONQUERED NUMEROUS TIMES BY THE $25 DIME CLUB MEMBERS! 
We have I would say 8-10 who have made it Thousand Dollar City but none this year yet. We're counting on you and Bama to lead the charge! When do you break camp?
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#8006
Posted: 4/27/2012 10:10:36 PM
SmoothD there is a 2-part answer to your question about the SD/SF game.

Again, firstly, if public is on team B and the line move starts to move towards team A, then Team A looks like the sharp play. 

However, there are head fakes to consider.  Let me illustrate, as this game looks close to a PK and I mentioned in earlier post why I avoid these.

Let's say Vegas knows a game is a true PK, but they like Team A more, so they make team B a slight favorite of -115.  Consequently the public hammers team B, because the buster public likes the favorites at home.

Okay fine, but what if new information comes up and all of a sudden Vegas is afraid Team B is gonna win!  Now they gotta get money in on team A, so they swing the line to team A -115, bringing the busters onto Team A.

You see?  So this would be an example of a dangerous line move, because it is so close to a PK.  I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the play when it's so close to a PK, same thing in basketball when a team goes from +1 to -1 this could easily be a set-up.

I'd much rather take a team that's +1 then -1.  

Buster mentality works like this:

"Hey, I want to take the team that's gonna win, and Team B is -1 and the favorite so they should win. To make things even better, Team B is at home, and there's no spread to cover, just -1, so they just have to win! Let's take Team B!!!  

   

The sharp play then would be to get on Vegas' side and take the +1 team.  If I like an away dog of +1 like this, and the line moves to favor them, it's a no-play for me.

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#8007
Posted: 4/27/2012 10:17:16 PM
SmoothD, let me finish with this:

You are on the right track my friend and totally figured out what I was saying and yes the Cubs were the play.

Based on the other example, I just explained why I don't trust -1 to +1 moves. 

What if Team A starts as a slight dog though, and the line moves to Team A -1 (possible head fake), but then beyond?!  They go to -1.5 and then -2, maybe further to -2.5 or even more expensive.

THIS IS A SHARP PLAY.  When a favorite reverses at the PK I don't jump, but if it KEEPS GOING it's the play.  That is the key folks.  There's no difference between a +1 or -1 line really.  I mean there is slightly and it affects the ML price and we all know that, but it's really not as important.  

There's a HUGE difference between +1 and -2 though.  A move past that 1 pt mark or -115 point and I would consider it a play. Just beware of the head fakes like I explained above.


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#8008
Posted: 4/27/2012 10:23:46 PM
GL on SD Smooth you have the concept and SD most likely is the sharp play, it sounds like it from what you're saying for sure.  I just had to mention the head fake possibility anytime the line is so close to a pk, but they key is you said the busters were HEAVILY on SF.

Vegas knows the busters will load up on SF yet they kept it close to a PK, and the line moved in your favor late.  This looks good for you. You're a smart guy and will get this in no time flat.  Wait until you see how this works with basketball!

Our first live example was the Cubs and the system came thru! Now let's hope for SD!  

Booyah gets it totally and sounds like him and I are seeing eye to eye on things. 

Remember guys, the system doesn't hit 100%, so when we get a loss take it in stride and stay disciplined.  You will be rewarded with women and gold when we conquer Sin City 
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#8009
Posted: 4/27/2012 10:44:50 PM
Let me say one more thing, using the Cubs game as an example.

Let's say according to your own opinion Phillies are the play tonight.  The Cubs suck and are on the road and you like Phillies all day.  I know you guys aren't going to use my system exclusively, at least not yet, but at least use it as a back-check for your plays.  

The thought process would go something like this (in order):

- I like Phi tonight for reasons A B and C.
- (using czech's system to back-check) wait the busters are on Phi 
- Wait the line is dropping on Phi and favoring the Cubs.  Huh?
- This is a NO-PLAY then.

Guys, you don't have to bet every game on the board.  You don't have to bet the Cubs when you don't like them, according to my Rule #3, only take picks YOU LIKE.

But that doesn't mean you should take a sucker bet either and take Phi.  Make it a no-play.  I have many times liked a pick and then something happened to make it a no-play and I watched my pick hit.  Ugh.  But guess what:

Many more times I have made it a no-play and saved hard , because I liked the wrong play along with the other busters.

Guys we're not doing this for fun, we do it for money.  This is why the system is so powerful, it doesn't care who's home and away and who's favored and which teams you like the best or hate with a passion.  What if the sharp play is Boston, and you hate Boston and bet against them and they win?  

Only busters bet games this way.  If you want to be a sharp you need to think like one.  I bet against my Bulls a couple times this season, as much as it pained me to do so.  Luckily they're usually a big favorite and can win ML without covering! 

GL to all 
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#8010
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:10:00 PM
Hey Trax that looks like a Fear and Loathing pic you have there.  Good call buddy nice
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#8011
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:14:44 PM
Hey guys I have a question myself and this is another happy thing about baseball on Covers...where does it show the line history? It's right there on the right side in the matchup for hoops and football, but I don't see it in the baseball matchups.

I wanted to look at the SD/SF matchup and line action to see what the sharp play was for smoothD but I can't even find the line action
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#8012
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:51:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Hey Trax that looks like a Fear and Loathing pic you have there.  Good call buddy nice
Yeah it's Hunter S. Thompson, the guy who wrote it, really good writer.

Yeah hopefully either me or Bama will hit the 1K club, fingers crossed.
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#8013
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:58:24 PM
Follow the sharps to the bank Trax! And good luck SmoothD! You are becoming a sharp at an alarming rate! 

Cubs were sharp and SD is looking good so far. Let's hope they pull it out but I'd say you're on the right side tonight!!
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#8014
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:28:00 AM
Congrats to smoothD for taking the sharp plays! You avoided disaster with phillies and SF by following the sharps. Who would take Cubs and SD on the road today? Only the sharps would do such a thing. 

SmoothD gonna smooth-sail right past Captown on the regular now! 
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booyahz123
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#8015
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:29:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Hey guys I have a question myself and this is another happy thing about baseball on Covers...where does it show the line history? It's right there on the right side in the matchup for hoops and football, but I don't see it in the baseball matchups.

I wanted to look at the SD/SF matchup and line action to see what the sharp play was for smoothD but I can't even find the line action

I track the line movements by doing a copy and paste to Microsoft word so I can reference them as they move. I try to catch them as soon as they are posted. The SF game was not up right away but SD was the play.  I didnt pick it in time or would of done even better tonight. I thought it was funny how people were jumping on the Giants with a guy named Hacker on the mound.

13-4 tonight........ without doing this I pick more losers than winners.

They will not make it easy for you on here and rightfully so they give away plenty of cash for free.

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#8016
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:34:03 AM
back in the top 20


its a long season and I want 1st

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#8017
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:50:08 AM
Booyah BOOYAHZ!!

Guys I have crunched a few numbers and here is why streaks are hard.  Say your goal is the big kahuna, W25.  

Let's say you have a system producing 80% winners.  This would be the sharp system of everyone's dreams!  What are the odds of reaching W25 with such a system?

.3777%, or 1 out of every 265 times you tried, at 80% per pick.  Not so great.  

What if your system produced 58% on -110 lines, which is enough o make a living betting $500 per game?  

To reach W25 at 60% you're looking at .000284%, or 1 out of every 352,113 times you try.  

Bum bum bum…ain't gonna happen unless you're very verrrrry lucky.  Better to straight bet them all.  

You'll get to $100,000 in profits a lot quicker using a sound system to straight bet your plays, then increase the betting units steadily as you bankroll grows.  This is how we will devour Sin City beneath our artillery fire.
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#8018
Posted: 4/28/2012 1:12:32 AM
Guys here's some more simple math, using our 60% accuracy example. 

EV = Expected Value per pick

at 60% your EV = (60%W - 40%L) / total picks = 14%

This is relative no matter your unit size.  So if you bet $100 per game on -110 lines your average profit per game is $14.  If you bet $500 your average profit is $70.

Guys, using this system of 60% accuracy and an EV of 14% we can conquer Sin City without even using our reserve troops.  

Say you start with a $3,000 bankroll and start betting $200 per game.

EV per game = $28

After 107 games we have doubled our money, and time to double down for $400 per game.

EV per game now = $56 (and bankroll is $6,000)

After another 107 games we have doubled again (to $12,000)

After another 107 games we have doubled again (to $24,000)

So after 321 games we have made $21,000 starting at $200 per game!  This is sick and a sure way to the bank.  Why stop there?  

After 535 games we have close to our $100,000 bankroll of our dreams.  We are betting $3200 per game and living the good life! 

How long will it take you to bet 535 sharp plays?  Not that long honestly, and it's worth the effort.  You don't have to stop there either by the way.  I want to take this all the way to the 7 figure mark.  Let's get started!


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#8019
Posted: 4/28/2012 1:51:32 AM
Guys I am perfecting this system to reach an even higher percentage. Not only will this make things much safer to attempt on a short bankroll, but it will get us to the gates of Sin City at a breakneck speed!

I may get my name on a Casino before its over. It might even take more than a year but I think it's worth the investment. This is gonna be a great ride so saddle up and get ready to roll. 

I've noticed this thread is jammed up and takes forever to load. It's old and not as visible to everyone. I am not going to share any more info with the rest of Covers but may start my own thread for releasing the plays daily. I want people to have access to the plays easily and directly. This is why I'm gonna only put sharp plays on Contests from now on, so you can check them there or in here when I post and/or in my thread. Good luck to all 
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#8020
Posted: 4/28/2012 2:03:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Hey guys I have a question myself and this is another happy thing about baseball on Covers...where does it show the line history? It's right there on the right side in the matchup for hoops and football, but I don't see it in the baseball matchups.

I wanted to look at the SD/SF matchup and line action to see what the sharp play was for smoothD but I can't even find the line action
If you click on the tab of the sport at the top then scroll down to "scoreboard" click on that. Then go to the game that you want search the line for and you will see in that score box "line moves" click on that and you will see all the info you want. That's how I saw what was happening with SD and also the Cubs game. I won money on SD but I didn't make the Cubs game but I was tracking to how it worked. I never would have bet either of these games so I guess in that sense I would have been a "buster". I was hot before and now I have cooled slightly but armed with this info it's time to reload and charge  again!
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#8021
Posted: 4/28/2012 2:11:27 AM
BAMA AND TRAX START BLITZKRIEG STYLE ATTACK AND ADVANCE TO HOODVILLE! 
-------------------------------------------------
Bama and Trax both pulled out the big Bazookas and blew away all resistance when the St. Louis Cardinals trounced the hapless Brewers. Both posses are only 2 battles away from HOODVILLE! 
In the other war theater Bama suffered severe losses when the Baltimore Orioles couldn't handle a jet lagged Oakland A's team. But that small defeat didn't affect Bama's troops morale on Survivor. It only made them show more resolve. Keep riding fellas the $25 Dime Club is loving this Twin attack action. 
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#8022
Posted: 4/28/2012 2:47:13 AM
SmoothD join the sharps and fade the busters! 2-0 on my system tonight and you found them yourself! I'd say that's a good start in anyone's book! You turned a potentially 0-2 night into a 2-0 night. That's a 4 game swing in your record my friend. 

This illustrates perfectly why sharps win and busters do not. You saved your bankroll 4 units by getting on the sharp side of things. Keep up the good work 


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#8023
Posted: 4/28/2012 7:34:48 AM
Who is this masked man???         
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#8024
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:31:23 AM
Alright guys good am, today's opening day for NBA playoffs. First game up is Phi at Chi.

I am a Chicago fan and won't be betting against them today, but won't be taking them either. The line has dropped from -9.5 to currently -8.5, even though 55% on the bulls. 

I should note that 45%/55% doesn't mean anything. My opposition theory works best when dealing with consensus over 60%, and I think 45% on phi is actually a little high for a dog playing the best team in the NBA. 

For this reason the drop to -8.5 doesn't YET strike me as a sharp play. It's def sharper than bulls so far, but this could simply be an adjustment due to more busters being on phi than expected. Watch this line up until 1. If line stays where it's at it's a Phi lean, if it goes back up a no-play, and if it goes to -8 or lower Phi is the play. 

Next, the total. Busters are on the over, yet the line has dropped to 175 and even to 174.5 at some books. This is looking like a sharp play, but we need to see what this line does closer to 1 also. 

According to rule #3 I won't take a side in this game but I am considering the under. So far though Phi and under look like the plays. 
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#8025
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:37:03 AM
Guys I am going to release my sharp plays to you for next couple days to give you a taste of how they do, but keep in mind the busters beat the sharps sometimes so take it in stride and be disciplined. 

Example, the other night I had the Knicks under 191.5 as my sharp play and the game landed on 192 after a meaningless foul with 2 seconds to go. There was also a 3pt foul a couple minutes prior and these 2 stupid things led to the 1/2 pt suck out. 

It's sports and things happen. Best of luck to everyone and let's make some $ today. 
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