36.4% computed chance doe not cut it against a guy with a 13-1 quality start record Goose. Almost pulled the trigger on Boston, but I have to see what Griffin looks like out of the shoot.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
36.4% computed chance doe not cut it against a guy with a 13-1 quality start record Goose. Almost pulled the trigger on Boston, but I have to see what Griffin looks like out of the shoot.
OK, I am going to pull a Paul Harvey and tell you “the rest of the story” even though
most of the forum is too young to remember Paul Harvey or his radio shows.
Tough cookie, Google it and learn something.
The Padres are 13-10 on the season versus left handed
starters (57%) and the Reds are 6-11 (35%) but it gets much, much worse. The “smart
money” and myself (can’t include myself with the smart money folks, the forum
would never buy it) know just how bad it really is. There last 9 the padres are
6-3, with 8 quality offensive
performances and are averaging 7.47
earned runs per 9.
You can forget any nonsense comparisons you have seen
regarding Pomeranz and Finnegan. Pomeranz
is 9-5 in my quality start records and has a 73.2 rating. Finnegan counters that
with 7-8, 59.2. As if the offense weren’t hot enough the value of Pomeranz over
Finnegan is about 84 cents of line value.
Pomeranz 6.00 era his last 3 is mostly due to a bad start versus
Miami, but he bounced back with a quality start and win versus Washington, so
the overall performance record is back in play. Finnegan may be looking better his
last 3, but the only Reds team win came against the Braves, a totally pathetic
lefty hitting team, 3 quality performances out of 15, 2.53 oera.
That is why the line is exploding, but fear not, it will
level off and maybe come down a little because the “dumb money” people will not
play a bad team, the Padres, on the road versus the Reds. Instead they will
take the “big value” home dog.
There are no locks, or guaranteed winners, or “fixes”; there
is just probability versus payback and my computation of a Padres advantage
today would justify a line as high as -180. Since I only had to lay -120 I have
a 9.9% advantage versus the line. Win, lose or draw, worthy of play.
Your money, your choice
Awesome explanation!..thank you!..thank you for your picks and BOL!
OK, I am going to pull a Paul Harvey and tell you “the rest of the story” even though
most of the forum is too young to remember Paul Harvey or his radio shows.
Tough cookie, Google it and learn something.
The Padres are 13-10 on the season versus left handed
starters (57%) and the Reds are 6-11 (35%) but it gets much, much worse. The “smart
money” and myself (can’t include myself with the smart money folks, the forum
would never buy it) know just how bad it really is. There last 9 the padres are
6-3, with 8 quality offensive
performances and are averaging 7.47
earned runs per 9.
You can forget any nonsense comparisons you have seen
regarding Pomeranz and Finnegan. Pomeranz
is 9-5 in my quality start records and has a 73.2 rating. Finnegan counters that
with 7-8, 59.2. As if the offense weren’t hot enough the value of Pomeranz over
Finnegan is about 84 cents of line value.
Pomeranz 6.00 era his last 3 is mostly due to a bad start versus
Miami, but he bounced back with a quality start and win versus Washington, so
the overall performance record is back in play. Finnegan may be looking better his
last 3, but the only Reds team win came against the Braves, a totally pathetic
lefty hitting team, 3 quality performances out of 15, 2.53 oera.
That is why the line is exploding, but fear not, it will
level off and maybe come down a little because the “dumb money” people will not
play a bad team, the Padres, on the road versus the Reds. Instead they will
take the “big value” home dog.
There are no locks, or guaranteed winners, or “fixes”; there
is just probability versus payback and my computation of a Padres advantage
today would justify a line as high as -180. Since I only had to lay -120 I have
a 9.9% advantage versus the line. Win, lose or draw, worthy of play.
Your money, your choice
Awesome explanation!..thank you!..thank you for your picks and BOL!
I learned a very short while ago not to bet for and against "my" METS for now. The time will come again when we can bet live on a METS win when they are down 3-0 in the 1st inning.
I love your very witty commentary and picks. Thanks for making this forum fun for the rest of us.
I learned a very short while ago not to bet for and against "my" METS for now. The time will come again when we can bet live on a METS win when they are down 3-0 in the 1st inning.
I love your very witty commentary and picks. Thanks for making this forum fun for the rest of us.
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