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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: should i hedge my series bet???
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#1
Posted: 4/27/2009 11:54:27 AM
Hello everyone..

I'm having trouble deciding on what to do with my series bet since I am horrible with math. Here's the deal:

I have 1000 to make 3000 on the Anaheim Ducks to beat the San Jose Sharks for the series.  Anaheim is up 3-2 in the series.  Tonight's game is in Anaheim and San Jose is currently a -120 favorite on my site.  Should I hedge my series bet and throw some on San Jose tonight? What would you guys do?? Thanks for any help with this...
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#2
Posted: 4/27/2009 11:59:24 AM
Don't hedge.  I'm assuming you bet Anaheim because you thought they'd win.  They're ahead 3-2 after 5, don't panic.  Stick to your guns.

Remember, only 8% of the teams to fall behind 3-1 have ever come back to win the series.
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#3
Posted: 4/27/2009 12:05:28 PM
or atleast wait until game 7 if it happens
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#4
Posted: 4/27/2009 12:38:12 PM
yeah, wait till game 7 (if there is one)
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#5
Posted: 4/27/2009 12:46:17 PM
dont hedge quack quack tonight in pond! :)
 
at least wait till game 7. sharks win game 7 at home if they get that far.
 
gl
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#6
Posted: 4/27/2009 1:38:40 PM
You can't Hedge in game 7 because San Jose at home is gonna be around -200.

It's now or never, while SJ is still plus money to win the series. 
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#7
Posted: 4/27/2009 1:45:13 PM
Trust your gutt. If you feel like headging then hedge.
 
I'd actually headge $500 on SJ, that way you've reduced your risk by half. If SJ wins, then you're down $500 and not $1000 and not fully kicking yourself, if the Ducks win, then only $600 of your profits are gone, so you walk away with $1400.
 
Your decision...and it's a tough choice. Question is how much of a gambler are you and do you really need this money is what it boils down too.
 
 
 
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#8
Posted: 4/27/2009 1:47:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jrock88:

You can't Hedge in game 7 because San Jose at home is gonna be around -200.

It's now or never, while SJ is still plus money to win the series. 


He's right, cant hedge at -200 it's now or never.

And the answer is never Dont sell away a good investment, you've got +300 that the ducks don't lose the next two games... I will take it off your hands if you want

Although, this is interesting because since it is game 6 you have great options now that I think about it... thats the perk of picking a 3:1 dog and having them up 3-2 going to game 6.  Now you can 'hedge' by putting a big bet on San Jose for game 6, and you can actually win BOTH bets if SJ wins tonight and Anaheim wins game 7.  That would be nice!

so you have 1,000 to win 3,000...

...if you bet to win 1500 on San Jose tonight you can't lose money overall.  If anaheim wins you profit 3000 minus your risk on SJ, and if San Jose wins you you will either make $500 with a SJ win in game 7 or you will make 4500 if the Ducks win in 7!!

- I changed my mind... I'm no mathematician but I think since your big dog is ahead early in the series your payouts on heding are way up... you can guarantee yourself profit while actually having a chance to make more money than you originally hoped, you really cant beat that... its gambling but at this point there is no gamble for you its a win win... enjoy!  And nice pick
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#9
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:03:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dynamicz:

or atleast wait until game 7 if it happens

Agreed  ...but you will then be laying big juice - mo will have shifted - G7 at home will be SJ -140 or so IMO

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#10
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:07:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Spitfire15:



He's right, cant hedge at -200 it's now or never.

And the answer is never Dont sell away a good investment, you've got +300 that the ducks don't lose the next two games... I will take it off your hands if you want

 



Although, this is interesting because since it is game 6 you have great options now that I think about it... thats the perk of picking a 3:1 dog and having them up 3-2 going to game 6.  Now you can 'hedge' by putting a big bet on San Jose for game 6, and you can actually win BOTH bets if SJ wins tonight and Anaheim wins game 7.  That would be nice!

so you have 1,000 to win 3,000...

...if you bet to win 1500 on San Jose tonight you can't lose money overall.  If anaheim wins you profit 3000 minus your risk on SJ, and if San Jose wins you you will either make $500 with a SJ win in game 7 or you will make 4500 if the Ducks win in 7!!

- I changed my mind... I'm no mathematician but I think since your big dog is ahead early in the series your payouts on heding are way up... you can guarantee yourself profit while actually having a chance to make more money than you originally hoped, you really cant beat that... its gambling but at this point there is no gamble for you its a win win... enjoy!  And nice pick

Quite an essay lol... I would highly doubt ANY even HOME favorite would be -200 in a game 7... these numbers are reserved for heavy favs which you are not if you've already lost 3 times out of 6 to the same opponent

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#11
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:08:20 PM
hello svima iz Srbije
za pobedu patki je 2,45 eura a za pobedu ajkula je 2,25 eura ali bey produzetaka
over je 2,25 eura
da li su priblizne kvote i kod vas?  

google translate
Hello everyone from Serbia
duck to win the 2.45 euros a shark to win the 2.25 euros, but without overtime
over the 2.25 euro
that the approximate quota and you?

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#12
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:23:49 PM
hey guys thank you for all your comments.  i'm leaning towards sticking to my original bet.  gonna hit the bar an hour before the puck drops and pray that thorton continues to be a stiff. 
 
good luck everyone.
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#13
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:26:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by happycap:

Agreed  ...but you will then be laying big juice - mo will have shifted - G7 at home will be SJ -140 or so IMO



San Jose was -190 for game 5 at home, I think -140 would be a GIFT.


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#14
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:28:15 PM
There is no way San Jose would be -140. Whoever thinks that is on some other planet. They would be at least -180 at home riding all the momentum. Look at Washington for example.
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#15
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:28:26 PM
I will guarantee that if SJ wins tonight they will be -185 or higher.  Realize, they had lost 3 out of 4 to Anaheim, and BOTH at home, and were still -190 for Game 5. 
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#16
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:29:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by happycap:

Quite an essay lol... I would highly doubt ANY even HOME favorite would be -200 in a game 7... these numbers are reserved for heavy favs which you are not if you've already lost 3 times out of 6 to the same opponent

if they sharks win tonight the line will prolly be -160

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#17
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:33:25 PM
How do you guys see the line being 30 to 50 cents shorter than game 5?

No way in hell the Sharks are anything less than -185.

The Caps are -270!!!!!
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#18
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:46:24 PM
Caps are at -250 for game 7 on home ice.  They've lost 2 out of 3 so far on home ice, if SJ win tonight, they'll be for sure around -200 ( Top seed on the West should'nt be forgotten).
 
I'm facing the same problem as you do.  I won't hedge my bet since I think the Ducks will close it tonight at home.  If they lose tonight and in SJ on game 7, it was the risk I was taking when I placed my bet @ +263.
 
If you wish to hedge
 
Initial Bet : 1000 $
Expected return : 4000 $ ( to make 3000 )
 
Place 2238 $ on SJ @ -127 for a 761 $ guaranted
 
If SJ win it, then you'll probably have to place so money on them @ -200 let's say.
 
Initial Bet : 1000 $
Expected Return: 4000 $ ( to make 3000 )
 
You'll have to place 2666 $ on the SJ @ -200 for a 333 $ guaranted.
 
Therefore, with 2 hedges you'll get out with aroud 1100 $ profit which is a 1000 bet for a 1100 return.
 
3 options for you:
 
1- Hope for a win in the next 2 games --> +3000 $
2- Hedge and lose (Ducks win) --> +761 $
3- Hedge and win (SJ win) --> +1100 $
 
If to make means a 3000 $ return:
 
1- Hope for a win in the next 2 games --> +2000 $
2- Hedge and lose (Ducks win) --> +321 $
3- Hedge and win (SJ win) --> +321$
 
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#19
Posted: 4/27/2009 2:47:01 PM
ducks have taken 2 there already -IMHO-160-180.
 
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#20
Posted: 4/27/2009 3:22:09 PM
If you are going to hedge, you have to do it NOW with a Sharks series bet.  IF you wait till Game Seven, you will be paying juice out the wazzu.  Probably San Jose -190, Anaheim +170.
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#21
Posted: 4/27/2009 3:26:30 PM
n1ck, he shouldn't make 2 hedges... you are missing the best option

HEDGE NOW... if SJ wins then you already won more than your investment back and you are getting +300 in game 3 on the Ducks.  If the Ducks win then you win anyway.

The sharks will be -180 at the very lowest if it goes to game 7, I think they will be -210 or so, you cant hedge again at that price.  I think you have to hedge now.   You are guaranteeing yourself money and you might actually win more than you would without hedging if the Ducks win in 7!!

Hedge!
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