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Author: [College Football] Topic: Early Pac 12 breakdown
thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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#1
Posted: 1/27/2013 10:13:09 AM

Stanford (8-1) - the new USC. Defense will be down a notch, but offense will be up 2 nothces with an experienced QB
Oregon (7-2) - drop off will not be that much from last year
Washington (5-4) - a lot of skill returning
Oregon St (4-5) - they usually outperform their rankings
Cal (3-6) - energized program, but can they find a QB?
Wash St (1-8) - clock is ticking on HC's job already

UCLA (6-3) - program is turned around, but consistency is an issue
Arizona St (6-3) - this is a talented team that is also incosnsitent
Arizona (5-4)- system is in place now, always tough at home.
USC (5-4)- Talented team with too much infighting
Utah (3-6)-  this team is used to winning 10 games every year.  Can they get to that level in the P12.  Might take a few years for their recruiting to catch up to the top P12 teams.
Colorado (1-8) - way too much ground to make up, but they could pull a couple big upsets
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WISEGUY36 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
WISEGUY36
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#2
Posted: 1/27/2013 10:22:56 AM
Thorpe, Thanks for the info. I think Stanford may
surprise this year and have a shot to play for the
BCS title.


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THEMUGG
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THEMUGG
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#3
Posted: 1/27/2013 10:51:28 AM
 It'll be interesting to see how much, if any, Oregon drops with Kelly gone. I wouldn't think much initially, but over the next 2-3 years they could fall off..................I laughed a couple years ago when many here predicted Utah would step in & win the P12 title..................overall your predictions look right.


 Hard to believe but USC has the best recruiting class in the country & it's not even close............how they're selling (or buying) these kids on this declining program is baffling..............kids will be kids I guess.
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thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:39:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

 It'll be interesting to see how much, if any, Oregon drops with Kelly gone. I wouldn't think much initially, but over the next 2-3 years they could fall off..................I laughed a couple years ago when many here predicted Utah would step in & win the P12 title..................overall your predictions look right.


 Hard to believe but USC has the best recruiting class in the country & it's not even close............how they're selling (or buying) these kids on this declining program is baffling..............kids will be kids I guess.

Oregon might be better without Kelly.  They will still run the same playbook, and if the new OC keeps it simple they may be better off.

I think Marriota is due for a classic Soph Slump, but Oregon has mroe than enough at RB to beat most teams.

Non Conference games for the next 3 years.  Tennessee at home, at Nevada, and 2 games with Mich St are tough games, but the other 4 games are cupcakes..

2013 - Nicholls St, at Nevada, Tenn
2014 - Wyoming, Mich St, Open
2015 - E  Wash, at Mich St, Ge St

2013 conference

Cal
at Colorado
at Washington
Wash St
UCLA
Bye
at Stanford
Utah
at Arizona
Oregon St

Oregon does not play USC or Arizona St from the South which is very favorable.  Playing at Stanford is a loss on paper, They could be favored in all the other games but I think they lose one or more of those game.  At Washington and Arizona are not easy wins.

2014 might be Oregon's year.  MAriotta is a junior, second year in coach's system, and they get Stanford at home.
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thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:57:59 PM
Cal Bears

2013 Non Conf
Northwestern - coinflip, Cal will have a fired up sellout home crowd
Portland St - Cal needfs to be careful if Port St is any good
Ohio St - Ohio St fans:  be prepared to be troubled by what you see on the streets in Berkeley.

Conference

At Oregon - very tough
Wash St - should win
at UCLA - Cal has had UCLA's number, but UCLA will want revenge
Ore St - Oregon St usually beats Cal, but this is a huge swing game for Cal's season
at Wash - Cal will be a good-sized dog, but my gut says they win this game
Arizona - matchup favors Cal
USC - Tedford got fired because he could only beat USC once. 
at Col - tough place to play on Nov 16 (winter) and the week before the big game.  I call for Cal to lose this game and go winless on the road
at Stanford - would be one of the bigger upsets in Big Game history

Cal skips Arizona St and Utah from the South. 


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thorpe
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Posted: 1/27/2013 2:09:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Thorpe, Thanks for the info. I think Stanford may
surprise this year and have a shot to play for the
BCS title.



Stanford

Bye = not sure I like opening the year with a bye
San Jose St - class warfare game is always tough but should win but not cover
at Army - not easy, but should win and cover if they shutdown the option
Arizona St - won't be an easy game, but will win unless Ariz St plays their best game
at Wash St - not a great matchup for Stanford's defense, but should still win
Washington - revenge game should win
at Utah - Stanford could easily lose this game, but can't call for an upset
UCLA - 3rd matchup in less than a year  IS it tough to be beat a team 3 times in a row?
at Ore St - very tough place to win
bye
Oregon - slight favorite
at USC - Stanford has USC's number
Cal - should win, but this is a USC/Notre Dame sandwich spot
ND - big time revenge

Stanford skips Arizona and Colorado from the South. 

STanford had 5 P12 home games. 



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WISEGUY36
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#7
Posted: 1/27/2013 2:09:46 PM
Thorpe, How does Stanford's schedule for next year look ?

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#8
Posted: 1/27/2013 2:20:37 PM
Thanks.I appreciate it. Do you have any Info on
returning starters?

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thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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Posted: 1/27/2013 7:44:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Thanks.I appreciate it. Do you have any Info on
returning starters?


They lose a good TE and a couple of good LBs.  Harbaugh is a very good recruiter and his recruits are now JR and SRs and redshirt SO..
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Posted: 1/27/2013 7:47:21 PM
Thorpe, Thanks Bud, I appreciate it.
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#11
Posted: 1/28/2013 12:33:05 AM
tough schedule for UCLA

at Stanford
at Oregon
at Arizona
at USC


out of conference, at Nebaska
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WISEGUY36 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
WISEGUY36
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#12
Posted: 1/28/2013 12:39:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dytide:

tough schedule for UCLA

at Stanford
at Oregon
at Arizona
at USC


out of conference, at Nebaska


That hurts.That means they'll have to "kick butt" in their home
games if they are looking to be ranked.
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thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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Posted: 1/28/2013 9:05:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dytide:

tough schedule for UCLA

at Stanford
at Oregon
at Arizona
at USC


out of conference, at Nebaska

OUch, I did not look at the schedules when I forecast records, but UCLA may be moving down a notch for my next revision.

They also have at Utah, where they struggle, and 2 home games that are not gimmes vs Cal and ASU.

They do not get to play Wash ST which is the easiest team from the North.

5-4 looks more relaistic for their conf record.  MAybe 4-5 if they have a letdown year or worse.
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thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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Posted: 1/28/2013 9:07:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


They lose a good TE and a couple of good LBs.  Harbaugh is a very good recruiter and his recruits are now JR and SRs and redshirt SO..

They also lose the RB Taylor which hurts them.
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WISEGUY36 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
WISEGUY36
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Posted: 1/28/2013 11:30:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


They also lose the RB Taylor which hurts them.



Taylor was a tremendous talent at RB. I think I'll dig
into Stanford's depth at the position.

Thanks
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Posted: 1/28/2013 7:53:25 PM
chances of a repeat in PAC 12 title game are very slim,

just sayin, it rarely happens to have the same teams in a title game, this year's BIG 10 title game notwithstanding
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#17
Posted: 1/28/2013 7:57:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


They also lose the RB Taylor which hurts them.



I'm glad Tree has their QB situation resolved for next season.
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DoubleUp4Life
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#18
Posted: 1/29/2013 11:42:18 AM
I Like Arizona St and Zona next year ...

dont think Oregon will slip at all .... Wanna see some Conference odds as soon as possible
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