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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL 09' strategic wagering...
jhudd70 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#626
Posted: 11/2/2009 9:21:15 PM
Actually, there is much to be learned in failure, if that's the term you want to use.Making selections based on watching game film, makes alot of sense. Then again, laying huge juice on a ML favorite, will bite you eventually. Especially in a sport that has shown us that literally anything can happen on any given week. I would have liked to have seen SN's strategy to get out of the huge hole he had gotten into over the last 2 weeks. Looks like he'll be "documenting" his plays elsewhere.
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FreakyFresh send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#627
Posted: 11/2/2009 10:09:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

To summarize this thread in very basic terms......a man claiming to be a professional handicapper who ran a MLB thread but never once posted his units wagered and simply claimed success without a single piece of justifiable evidence, decided to run an NFL thread.  Except this time he decided to actually post his units so a 3rd party could track his success.  It took him less than half the season to start making very large units wagers (38 on one game), start losing, and the completely quit.........and people are mad that he has stopped posting?

Quick side note I admittedly tailed his picks for 2-3 weeks during the MLB thread.  I am not proud of it but I did.  In those 2-3 weeks he never once posted his units, but he sent private messages to many people indicating he was betting 8 units on RLs, 2-4 on MLs, 6 on 1st 5 innings, and 2 on Over Unders. Of course he also claimed that it changed daily but never once explained that.  My point is this..........in my 2 or 3 weeks tailing SN I played the MM noted above and lost large sums of money, while at the same time SN was claiming large gains.  One days he was 3-1 he was claiming 20 units won.  On days he was 1-3 he was claiming 2 units lost.  I am telling you I read that post EVERY DAY, and it was amazing how ridiculous his claims were. And don't even get me started on the lines he was claiming he found. It was out of control.

Don't get me wrong I wanted him to continue this NFL thread because I wanted to see his total hole after 17 weeks, but I sure as hell didn't expect to learn anything or make any money following his picks.

And if someone wants to say that they are learning something from SN, please tell me what you learned?  He never once gave advice for handicapping football, he simply said we need to understand the game, how it changes minute to minute, and that we need to watch 50 hours of game film.

My point is this....I enjoyed reading this thread too and I like to hear many different sources each week before I make my picks.  But there are a lot of tailers out there who believed SN's bs (me during MLB season), who stood to lose a lot of money.  This person never once generated proven success, so why should anyone be eager to get his advice on a game?



This is a great summary of Sport Network's threads. It would be tough to put it any better.
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FreakyFresh send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#628
Posted: 11/2/2009 10:41:17 PM
There were things to learn from Sports Network, but none of them had anything to do with actually picking winners, or actually winning at all. If anyone takes anything from the man it should be this:

1) Money management is really is a science in itself. It takes a great understanding of your handicapping skills, math, statistics, and time to zero in on a worthwhile system

2) You cannot leave things ambiguous when you are trying to document your work. If you do, there will always be questions, and rightfully so. And more ambiguous answers to the questions will leave your documentation with no validity.

3) Picking winners and actually making a profit is actually very very difficult in this industry.

4) There are people who will try to make themselves sound smarter than they actually are and BS everyone to undermine those around them.. those who buy into it, will be accepted by these people, and those who see through it, and bring attention to it, will try and be kept away by this type of person to keep intact this manipulated group.

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K4ngur13 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#629
Posted: 11/2/2009 11:57:20 PM
FreakyFresh


I still think s_N is coming back.
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#630
Posted: 11/3/2009 1:11:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jeff_Kent:

". . . so why should anyone be eager to get his advice on a game?"

OK, would you please direct me to the thread or threads where only the winners are picked.  Any sport or sports on which the books offer odds will suffice.
It's not about threads where only winners are picked. That doesn't exist. It's about a certain individual claiming MLB  win results & having a total attitude of a maven. If i'm in a thread & i'm claiming certain unit win results and you question my methodology and my response is to denigrate you for even asking me-red lights & sirens should be going off that i'm totally full of garbage. If you're truly a winning sports bettor-wonderful. But if you're gonna make winning claims every day on these threads-you'd better be able to explain your methods or else all the other bettors on this site will eventually expose you as being full of garbage.
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#631
Posted: 11/3/2009 3:36:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

To summarize this thread in very basic terms......a man claiming to be a professional handicapper who ran a MLB thread but never once posted his units wagered and simply claimed success without a single piece of justifiable evidence, decided to run an NFL thread.  Except this time he decided to actually post his units so a 3rd party could track his success.  It took him less than half the season to start making very large units wagers (38 on one game), start losing, and the completely quit.........and people are mad that he has stopped posting?

Quick side note I admittedly tailed his picks for 2-3 weeks during the MLB thread.  I am not proud of it but I did.  In those 2-3 weeks he never once posted his units, but he sent private messages to many people indicating he was betting 8 units on RLs, 2-4 on MLs, 6 on 1st 5 innings, and 2 on Over Unders. Of course he also claimed that it changed daily but never once explained that.  My point is this..........in my 2 or 3 weeks tailing SN I played the MM noted above and lost large sums of money, while at the same time SN was claiming large gains.  One days he was 3-1 he was claiming 20 units won.  On days he was 1-3 he was claiming 2 units lost.  I am telling you I read that post EVERY DAY, and it was amazing how ridiculous his claims were. And don't even get me started on the lines he was claiming he found. It was out of control.

Don't get me wrong I wanted him to continue this NFL thread because I wanted to see his total hole after 17 weeks, but I sure as hell didn't expect to learn anything or make any money following his picks.

And if someone wants to say that they are learning something from SN, please tell me what you learned?  He never once gave advice for handicapping football, he simply said we need to understand the game, how it changes minute to minute, and that we need to watch 50 hours of game film.

My point is this....I enjoyed reading this thread too and I like to hear many different sources each week before I make my picks.  But there are a lot of tailers out there who believed SN's bs (me during MLB season), who stood to lose a lot of money.  This person never once generated proven success, so why should anyone be eager to get his advice on a game?

Great post UsaSurfer, you are 100% correct. Fortunately, unlike you I only tailed him for a couple days, and the same thing happened to me. I did loose a couple dimes playing his picks when he was posting +units for those days. After a couple days I realized it was a scam and stopped. PMs were sent asking for explanations, and I was insulted, berrated and basically told that S_N intelligence level and strategies are beyond me.

I ran several succesfull systems/trend betting last MLB and did very well. I did make a post around IL time where I took a large hit and SN came into my thread and insulting me and calling my strategies stupid etc.. In the end, my strategy worked out extremly well, and I gained alot of experience on how to recover from chase losses. Have not looked back since, hopefully it continues.

The point that needs to be understood here by a few guys... When you post picks and unit records in a *PUBLIC FORUM* it should be a given by all posters that people WILL ALWAYS try and tail someone showing profits. You are putting other peoples $$ at risk and by not doing it in an honorable fashion in my opinion you are a scumbag.

I have never posted plays, not because I don't think they are solid but because I do not want my strategies exposed and neither do I want anyone elses money riding on my picks.

Guys like GameHunter etc... are *REAL* cappers with *REAL* records and are honorable in their accounting practices, regardless of good or bad results.

GMSI

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thegame_66088
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#632
Posted: 11/3/2009 2:12:16 PM
who do u like in this weeks ncaa and nfl games
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#633
Posted: 11/8/2009 9:52:10 AM

Somehow SN built up a loyal following. I thought his MLB system actually performed pretty well, but he found all kinds of value on the online books that I simply did not have the time to scout out for myself.

His MLB system was actually not all that bad. As for the NFL, something went tragically wrong.

The conspiracy theorist in me (not such a healthy voice in my head but it's there nonetheless) feels like the online books might create these individuals for all of us to follow because the statistics point so strongly in the books' favor as far as the more we bet the more they will ultimately make off of us. If we believe in a handicapping deity (sp??) then the books may just have an advantage on us because we really do want to believe someone has figured out a way to hit 65% and keep the money rolling. We want to believe someone has a figured out a way to beat the book. 

But then -- I could be totally full of crap. SN could have simply been overconfident about his ability to cap NFL.  I hope he is back for MLB 2010. His MM system is not simply all smoke and mirrors. If you take the time and ask thoughtful questions in a courteous manner, you can actually learn from SN as far as MLB is concerned. Many cappers on these forums excel at one sport and underperform on another.  

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#634
Posted: 11/8/2009 10:49:36 AM
 FreakyFresh.........
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#635
Posted: 11/9/2009 12:22:20 AM
where did my wager go?
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#636
Posted: 11/9/2009 2:46:27 PM

meeker,

What do you think of the sports betting professor? Or that link you have on your post? Do you follow it? Also, are his picks posted anywhere?

Thanks

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#637
Posted: 11/9/2009 5:46:33 PM

I had the guy pegged from the start, but people got mad at me when i called him out.  When you have beena round this game for close to 30 years, its not hard to spot the bullshit artists real easy.

My advice to anybody looking to tail somebody, if they dont keep a daily record of units won and lost, then dont follow that person. Run away as far as you can get from them, because they are just losers or tout wanna bes.

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#638
Posted: 11/10/2009 12:47:13 AM
"cd329.

I had the guy pegged from the start, but people got mad at me when i called him out.  When you have beena round this game for close to 30 years, its not hard to spot the bullshit artists real easy.

My advice to anybody looking to tail somebody, if they dont keep a daily record of units won and lost, then dont follow that person. Run away as far as you can get from them, because they are just losers or tout wanna bes."

I think that s_N was here to educate and elucidate and enlighten us on "watching film". Of course, daily units won and lost are important in one's money management. But the purpose was not to pick games but rather to assign "weights" to each "release". In the NFL, most odds are at -110.So the breakeven is around 52 or 53%. If your daily units won are positive, then your picking a good amount of winners.IF negative, not many winners, just losers. If s_N were to keep a daily record of his units won or lost, we should not be inclined to follow it like a book, letter for letter.

I have followed his picks and I use it as part of my handicapping tools quite often. However, without his presence, then only his method is left. We can use that as part of our "management" system.


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#639
Posted: 11/10/2009 3:56:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by seer8:

"cd329.

I had the guy pegged from the start, but people got mad at me when i called him out.  When you have beena round this game for close to 30 years, its not hard to spot the bullshit artists real easy.

My advice to anybody looking to tail somebody, if they dont keep a daily record of units won and lost, then dont follow that person. Run away as far as you can get from them, because they are just losers or tout wanna bes."

I think that s_N was here to educate and elucidate and enlighten us on "watching film". Of course, daily units won and lost are important in one's money management. But the purpose was not to pick games but rather to assign "weights" to each "release". In the NFL, most odds are at -110.So the breakeven is around 52 or 53%. If your daily units won are positive, then your picking a good amount of winners.IF negative, not many winners, just losers. If s_N were to keep a daily record of his units won or lost, we should not be inclined to follow it like a book, letter for letter.

I have followed his picks and I use it as part of my handicapping tools quite often. However, without his presence, then only his method is left. We can use that as part of our "management" system.


 

This might seem like piling on at this point, but I'm not at all sure that S_N ever actually watched film.  I was meaning to try to pinpoint him on that subject but I had other statistical points I wanted to hit first.  Coaches film isn't available to the general public.  It should be but it isn't.  Read this article for more on this subject.

http://www.slate.com/id/2173233/

Besides, SN never actually said anything specific about what he was looking for when he "watched film".

 

CD is right.  Be extremely wary of bullshit artists. 

 

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#640
Posted: 11/11/2009 10:14:05 AM
well sn was doing ok in baseball, and was useful to watch.
the thing is we all can hit around %50-60 in any sports.
but wagering is more important, since this all about money.
i think we all need to discuss about making this profitable, not hitting 13 potting teasers!
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#641
Posted: 12/3/2009 1:20:43 AM
Hey Guys and Gals, just thought I would give you a heads up SN has been out for awhile as al of you know working on another project, but he will be back on the thread very soon to pick up where he left off.
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