Messages

Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 2 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Boston Celtics to win the East Futures
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#26
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:27:37 PM
No. Don't like it.

Last year, the Celtics and Bulls both owned the Heat in the regular season. We all know how that ended in the postseason--- outright dominance by Miami. If they meet, I think the Heat are stronger this year and the Celtics will be weaker. Here's why:

If they meet, the Celtics will be tested by the Sixers in the 2nd round. They will have to utilize quite a bit of energy to overcome a pesky squad which knows them well and handled them easily twice this season. The C's bench is not deep at all and the Sixers bring a thunderous 2nd unit to the floor. This will deplete their reserve of energy coming into a (possible) Miami series. I don't discount the fatigue factor, especially when it comes to KG, Allen and Pierce. Last year, the Celtics had the benefit of sweeping the Knicks and meeting Miami in the 2nd round---they were well rested and they still got beat 4-1; this year, they will enjoy no such rest and will likely have played 6-7 more playoff games prior to seeing Miami.

The core of both teams are still unchanged and Miami has already proven they can win against Pierce, Allen, Rondo and Garnett in the postseason. There are no demons going on this year with LBJ and the Celtics. Those were banished last year. He singlehandedly destroyed them at the end of game 5 last year. He and Wade averaged almost 60 ppg in those 5 games.

Wade, Bosh and LBJ athletically outperformed the C's last year and I don't see why they won't once again. Rondo is amazing, but can Pierce, KG and Jesus bring it and
sustain it for a possible 7 games? I just don't see it happening. They are all one year older and not with a better supporting cast.

I don't envision the Celtics supporting cast outperforming Miami's. The Celtics actually had a better cast last year with Delonte West, Von Wafer and Glen Davis. The Celtics, this season, only go 7 maybe 8 deep, realistically, and this will hurt them significantly against the Heat(who can go 9 deep easily). Though I like Bass, he is not an upgrade over Big Baby(as evidenced by Davis' performance with Orlando these playoffs). Pietrus can shoot, but is one dimensional and not the ballhandler that West was. Bradley is solid. Their frontcourt is where they will be exposed. Pierce and Garnett cannot be expected to expend too much energy on rebounding. The C's are small upfront and their rebounding is horrific. Stiemsa truly sucks. Anthony, Haslem, Battier, LBJ and Miller should be able to outrebound the C's frontcourt.

Finally, LBJ and Wade are on a mission to get back to the Finals and win it all. I think their motivation is greater than Boston's to reach the championship. They are hungry in a way the Celtics are not.


quote
rangerz2478 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 16577
Location: New Jersey
#27
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:27:48 PM
+500 to win -700 to lose on 5dimes.

Which probably means you'd get +600 by betting each series and rolling over.

+400 is a no go Kap.
quote
Mad_Skillz123 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Mad_Skillz123
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 13662
Location:
#28
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:29:02 PM
get bos now, IF-THEN place all the money on next series and IF-then all the money on the next series. way better value.
quote
bhawksfan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bhawksfan
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 2515
Location:
#29
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:30:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

No. Don't like it.

Last year, the Celtics and Bulls both owned the Heat in the regular season. We all know how that ended in the postseason--- outright dominance by Miami. If they meet, I think the Heat are stronger this year and the Celtics will be weaker. Here's why:

If they meet, the Celtics will be tested by the Sixers in the 2nd round. They will have to utilize quite a bit of energy to overcome a pesky squad which knows them well and handled them easily twice this season. The C's bench is not deep at all and the Sixers bring a thunderous 2nd unit to the floor. This will deplete their reserve of energy coming into a (possible) Miami series. I don't discount the fatigue factor, especially when it comes to KG, Allen and Pierce. Last year, the Celtics had the benefit of sweeping the Knicks and meeting Miami in the 2nd round---they were well rested and they still got beat 4-1; this year, they will enjoy no such rest and will likely have played 6-7 more playoff games prior to seeing Miami.

The core of both teams are still unchanged and Miami has already proven they can win against Pierce, Allen, Rondo and Garnett in the postseason. There are no demons going on this year with LBJ and the Celtics. Those were banished last year. He singlehandedly destroyed them at the end of game 5 last year. He and Wade averaged almost 60 ppg in those 5 games.

Wade, Bosh and LBJ athletically outperformed the C's last year and I don't see why they won't once again. Rondo is amazing, but can Pierce, KG and Jesus bring it and
sustain it for a possible 7 games? I just don't see it happening. They are all one year older and not with a better supporting cast.

I don't envision the Celtics supporting cast outperforming Miami's. The Celtics actually had a better cast last year with Delonte West, Von Wafer and Glen Davis. The Celtics, this season, only go 7 maybe 8 deep, realistically, and this will hurt them significantly against the Heat(who can go 9 deep easily). Though I like Bass, he is not an upgrade over Big Baby(as evidenced by Davis' performance with Orlando these playoffs). Pietrus can shoot, but is one dimensional and not the ballhandler that West was. Bradley is solid. Their frontcourt is where they will be exposed. Pierce and Garnett cannot be expected to expend too much energy on rebounding. The C's are small upfront and their rebounding is horrific. Stiemsa truly sucks. Anthony, Haslem, Battier, LBJ and Miller should be able to outrebound the C's frontcourt.

Finally, LBJ and Wade are on a mission to get back to the Finals and win it all. I think their motivation is greater than Boston's to reach the championship. They are hungry in a way the Celtics are not.




There is just so much wrong in this post, from logic to assumptions, I m not even gonna bother.
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#30
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:33:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bhawksfan:



There is just so much wrong in this post, from logic to assumptions, I m not even gonna bother.



I am not a Heat or Celtics fan. Just a bettor with an opinion.

If you could dissociate yourself from your Celtics fandom, perhaps you could interpret this more objectively. And perhaps win some money. Or avoid losing some.


quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 34966
Location: California
#31
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:38:50 PM
Thanks for the input m_w, you know I respect your opinion and appreciate you responding. I'm probably gonna sit on the sidelines on this one, but the back and forth discussion about price/value and likelihood of winning has been a fantastic read


quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#32
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:46:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Thanks for the input m_w, you know I respect your opinion and appreciate you responding. I'm probably gonna sit on the sidelines on this one, but the back and forth discussion about price/value and likelihood of winning has been a fantastic read




Great thread kap. Always interesting to contemplate and get varying opinions on these sorts of futures wagers. This forum can be useful when thoughtful ideas are presented and debated. Good luck tonight.


quote
JCNP7777 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
JCNP7777
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 70
Location:
#33
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:55:40 PM
Stiemsa truly sucks? Are you retarded? The heat will probably have dirty behind thug wade break rondo's arm again so they can secure the series. 
quote
Fortmax send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Fortmax
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 747
Location: California
#34
Posted: 5/7/2012 7:06:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

No. Don't like it.

Last year, the Celtics and Bulls both owned the Heat in the regular season. We all know how that ended in the postseason--- outright dominance by Miami. If they meet, I think the Heat are stronger this year and the Celtics will be weaker. Here's why:

If they meet, the Celtics will be tested by the Sixers in the 2nd round. They will have to utilize quite a bit of energy to overcome a pesky squad which knows them well and handled them easily twice this season. The C's bench is not deep at all and the Sixers bring a thunderous 2nd unit to the floor. This will deplete their reserve of energy coming into a (possible) Miami series. I don't discount the fatigue factor, especially when it comes to KG, Allen and Pierce. Last year, the Celtics had the benefit of sweeping the Knicks and meeting Miami in the 2nd round---they were well rested and they still got beat 4-1; this year, they will enjoy no such rest and will likely have played 6-7 more playoff games prior to seeing Miami.

The core of both teams are still unchanged and Miami has already proven they can win against Pierce, Allen, Rondo and Garnett in the postseason. There are no demons going on this year with LBJ and the Celtics. Those were banished last year. He singlehandedly destroyed them at the end of game 5 last year. He and Wade averaged almost 60 ppg in those 5 games.

Wade, Bosh and LBJ athletically outperformed the C's last year and I don't see why they won't once again. Rondo is amazing, but can Pierce, KG and Jesus bring it and
sustain it for a possible 7 games? I just don't see it happening. They are all one year older and not with a better supporting cast.

I don't envision the Celtics supporting cast outperforming Miami's. The Celtics actually had a better cast last year with Delonte West, Von Wafer and Glen Davis. The Celtics, this season, only go 7 maybe 8 deep, realistically, and this will hurt them significantly against the Heat(who can go 9 deep easily). Though I like Bass, he is not an upgrade over Big Baby(as evidenced by Davis' performance with Orlando these playoffs). Pietrus can shoot, but is one dimensional and not the ballhandler that West was. Bradley is solid. Their frontcourt is where they will be exposed. Pierce and Garnett cannot be expected to expend too much energy on rebounding. The C's are small upfront and their rebounding is horrific. Stiemsa truly sucks. Anthony, Haslem, Battier, LBJ and Miller should be able to outrebound the C's frontcourt.

Finally, LBJ and Wade are on a mission to get back to the Finals and win it all. I think their motivation is greater than Boston's to reach the championship. They are hungry in a way the Celtics are not.



You forgot to mention the most important part regarding the Celtics - Heat series last year , Rondo was hurt and hes only playing with one arm as a point guard. 

Anyway i got the Celts  + 1100  to win  Eastern Conference, i got this 3 weeks ago.

Goodluck to everybody !  


quote
bhawksfan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bhawksfan
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 2515
Location:
#35
Posted: 5/7/2012 9:37:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:




I am not a Heat or Celtics fan. Just a bettor with an opinion.

If you could dissociate yourself from your Celtics fandom, perhaps you could interpret this more objectively. And perhaps win somoney. Or avoid losing some.



Rondo was injured, miami has proven nothing yet against the Cs, get your facts straight before you put all that time. And my opinion about ure post is that it is very flawed and biased.
quote
dontbookme
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
dontbookme
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3693
Location: Pennsylvania
#36
Posted: 5/7/2012 9:39:13 PM
worth a shot.. BUT Heat get to the Finals
quote
nepatriots_12 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
nepatriots_12
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 2291
Location: British
              Columbia
#37
Posted: 5/7/2012 10:06:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bhawksfan:


Rondo was injured, miami has proven nothing yet against the Cs, get your facts straight before you put all that time. And my opinion about ure post is that it is very flawed and biased.


actually your reasoning is LOL worthy. Mellow is one of the most knowledgeable people on Covers and knows his stuff. But it's your money so feel free to throw it away on Celtics series over Heat.


quote
tinoker55 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
tinoker55
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 18735
Location: Jamaica
#38
Posted: 5/7/2012 10:09:20 PM
What value?? seriously do you really think that the Celtics are gonna take down the Heat?? The ONLY time there is value is if the underdog has a shot..And they dont.. Heat win this series 4-1.. But if you like throwing your money away go ahead..
quote
JCNP7777 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
JCNP7777
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 70
Location:
#39
Posted: 5/7/2012 10:14:56 PM
bookmarking for when the celtics win
quote
rms8325 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
rms8325
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 1040
Location: Ohio
#40
Posted: 5/7/2012 10:35:19 PM
sportsbetting.com has them +700
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#41
Posted: 5/7/2012 11:00:50 PM
We are hopefully all here to discuss potential wagers and provide a greater chance to win some money. I simply don't feel like the Celtics are good wager, even at +400. Just my opinion, nothing personal against the Celtics or their fan base. There is no room for personal bias in these evaluations. It becomes difficult, over the long run, to make sound wagers when there is an emotional investment in one side.

In response to multiple contrarian opinions:


I hope we can all concur that regular season matchups are not usually a definitive barometer for playoff success or failure. The Heat proved this last season when they defeated Chicago and Boston by a combined 8-2 in the playoffs after going 1-6 against those same teams in the regular season. They
do deserve major credit for defeating both of these squads in 5 games in consecutive series', regardless of injuries.
I dispute that Rondo's elbow dislocation injury was THE reason the Celtics lost the series last season. It was clearly not intentional either, even Doc Rivers said so. While certainly a significant blow for games 4 and 5, Rondo was completely healthy for games 1 and 2 and the bulk of Game 3. The Celtics were simply defeated by the better team in those first 2 games. Neither were wire to wire close games. Was it possible they could have won 3 out of the 4 possible remaining games if Rondo did not get hurt? Sure, but I think the Heat clearly earned their series victory, especially with LBJ's dominant performance at the end of game 5. He was unstoppable in those last few minutes of game 5.

And no, I'm not retarded.

Stiemsma does stink. He's an above average shot blocker, but is a slow footed oaf and a poor rebounder. He has extremely limited offensive skills. He is a severe downgrade from Jermaine O'Neal the previous season. Stiemsma was an undrafted free agent who has played in Turkey and South Korea and couldn't even make the cut on terrible T-Wolves and Cavaliers squads.



Good luck with whatever you decide, but I am currently placing
no money on a Celtics series wager to win the ECF.
quote
nepatriots_12 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
nepatriots_12
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 2291
Location: British
              Columbia
#42
Posted: 5/8/2012 3:25:56 AM
To further prove Mellow's assertion that Stiemsma stinks, his roland rating is a -6.2 - good for 4th worst on the team and bad enough to put him in the 'scrub' department. Roland rating is the single best way to judge a player on his performance.



http://www.82games.com/1112/1112BOS.HTM
quote
bhawksfan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bhawksfan
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 2515
Location:
#43
Posted: 5/8/2012 3:45:59 AM

Mellowolf:

1- I did not even say I m backing the celtics, NBA betting is situational and it will depend on many factors when the time for the series arrives.

2- Brandon Bass: You got this wrong, he is absolutely an upgrade over big baby for the Cs. Better jumpshot, better discipline, more coachable, which all aids in the flow of bostons offense.

3-Pietrus: You got this wrong as well, why are you comparing him to delonte? Pietrus key asset to the celtics is his defense, he can guard just about anyone and shoot the ball. For example in this Atlanta series, he is guarding johnson a good share of time, which allows pierce to focus on his offense more.

As for you comments about last years series, if Rondo wasnt injured the Celtics would have won game 4 (they lost a nailbiter in OT without him) and that series was going to game 7. With all the pressure on the heat and bostons experience, you cant say for sure what would have happened in that game...btw using games 1 and 2 is an unfair sample size because they were both home games for the heat with little pressure on them.

quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 34966
Location: California
#44
Posted: 5/8/2012 5:38:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

No. Don't like it.

Last year, the Celtics and Bulls both owned the Heat in the regular season. We all know how that ended in the postseason--- outright dominance by Miami. If they meet, I think the Heat are stronger this year and the Celtics will be weaker. Here's why:

If they meet, the Celtics will be tested by the Sixers in the 2nd round. They will have to utilize quite a bit of energy to overcome a pesky squad which knows them well and handled them easily twice this season. The C's bench is not deep at all and the Sixers bring a thunderous 2nd unit to the floor. This will deplete their reserve of energy coming into a (possible) Miami series. I don't discount the fatigue factor, especially when it comes to KG, Allen and Pierce. Last year, the Celtics had the benefit of sweeping the Knicks and meeting Miami in the 2nd round---they were well rested and they still got beat 4-1; this year, they will enjoy no such rest and will likely have played 6-7 more playoff games prior to seeing Miami.

The core of both teams are still unchanged and Miami has already proven they can win against Pierce, Allen, Rondo and Garnett in the postseason. There are no demons going on this year with LBJ and the Celtics. Those were banished last year. He singlehandedly destroyed them at the end of game 5 last year. He and Wade averaged almost 60 ppg in those 5 games.

Wade, Bosh and LBJ athletically outperformed the C's last year and I don't see why they won't once again. Rondo is amazing, but can Pierce, KG and Jesus bring it and
sustain it for a possible 7 games? I just don't see it happening. They are all one year older and not with a better supporting cast.

I don't envision the Celtics supporting cast outperforming Miami's. The Celtics actually had a better cast last year with Delonte West, Von Wafer and Glen Davis. The Celtics, this season, only go 7 maybe 8 deep, realistically, and this will hurt them significantly against the Heat(who can go 9 deep easily). Though I like Bass, he is not an upgrade over Big Baby(as evidenced by Davis' performance with Orlando these playoffs). Pietrus can shoot, but is one dimensional and not the ballhandler that West was. Bradley is solid. Their frontcourt is where they will be exposed. Pierce and Garnett cannot be expected to expend too much energy on rebounding. The C's are small upfront and their rebounding is horrific. Stiemsa truly sucks. Anthony, Haslem, Battier, LBJ and Miller should be able to outrebound the C's frontcourt.

Finally, LBJ and Wade are on a mission to get back to the Finals and win it all. I think their motivation is greater than Boston's to reach the championship. They are hungry in a way the Celtics are not.




I quoted this response to a buddy of mine who is a fellow NBA diehard and wanted to share his response in the next post...
quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 34966
Location: California
#45
Posted: 5/8/2012 5:39:21 PM
"Celtics were dominated by the Heat in last year’s playoffs."

Rondo dislocated his elbow in game three.  Despite the fact that the Celtics swept the Knicks in round 1, KG and Pierce were both banged up and were not playing as well as they are this year.

"Celtics will be tested by the 76ers in the second round."

Wait, is this the same 76er team that nearly choked their way out of the playoffs down the stretch this season, and ceded home court advantage to Boston?  There are three teams in the western conference that missed the playoffs that are better than the 76ers.  The Sixers will win these grind it out games against CHI because CHI cannot score.  Boston has its three (potentially four) HOFers ready to make quick work of them.  You think Doc Rivers doesn’t know that BOS needs to take care of PHI in 4 or 5?

"The teams have the same cores, and the Heat proved they can beat Boston easily last season.  The Celtics have actually lost talent through the attrition of D West, Von Wafer, and Baby Davis."

Right, they dispatched a Boston team that lost their best player in game 3 and beat an old, tired team.  

Losing D West was the only real loss, and the combo of a healthy Rondo and solid rookie Avery Bradley takes care of that.  Is Von Wafer really better than Pietrus?  The same Von Wafer who is an afterthought on the Magic?  Same goes for Baby Davis… Davis had mostly been a disappointment for Orlando this season and is just playing above his head right now.  Bass is a better defender, rebounder, and more consistent cog in the Celtics offense hitting spot up mid-range jumpers.  I think this was an upgrade as far as overall contribution to the team, notwithstanding Davis’ recent offensive successes (which would be unnecessary on the C’s anyway).  Stiemsma I believe leads the league in blocks per minute, and only needs to play for 12 minutes to be effective.  The Celts go 8 deep legitimately.  8 is enough.

I know it seems counterintuitive that the Celtics could be healthier and fresher this year than last year… but I think the fact that there were fewer games actually helps them overall.  Doc Rivers didn’t just throw the old guys out there when the season began… He pretty much eased them into it, and once the guys got into playing shape, let them loose.  The beauty is that they’ve been getting better at exactly the right time.

Not saying I guarantee a Celtics victory, I just think they’re better than 4-1 to win.


quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 34966
Location: California
#46
Posted: 5/8/2012 5:51:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tinoker55:

What value?? seriously do you really think that the Celtics are gonna take down the Heat?? The ONLY time there is value is if the underdog has a shot..And they dont.. Heat win this series 4-1.. But if you like throwing your money away go ahead..


This is flat out incorrect. If you get a good price -- which I'm not saying we have here, but go with me -- you can bet an underdog you don't think will win the series for hedging purposes.
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#47
Posted: 5/8/2012 6:17:24 PM
QUOTEGreat response. 

Allow me to retort, in bold:


Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

"Celtics were dominated by the Heat in last year’s playoffs."

Rondo dislocated his elbow in game three.  Despite the fact that the Celtics swept the Knicks in round 1, KG and Pierce were both banged up and were not playing as well as they are this year.

KG and Pierce were not, in any significant way, "banged up" last year against Miami. Rondo was the only one who got injured, and that was in Game 3. The Celtics were beaten thoroughly in games 1 and 2, at full strength. PP and KG are playing well right now, but not at a noticeably different level than last year. Perhaps, they ran into a Heat defense which played a large in their sometimes uneven performances last season?

"Celtics will be tested by the 76ers in the second round."

Wait, is this the same 76er team that nearly choked their way out of the playoffs down the stretch this season, and ceded home court advantage to Boston?  There are three teams in the western conference that missed the playoffs that are better than the 76ers.  The Sixers will win these grind it out games against CHI because CHI cannot score.  Boston has its three (potentially four) HOFers ready to make quick work of them.  You think Doc Rivers doesn’t know that BOS needs to take care of PHI in 4 or 5?

The Sixers are playing well right now, you must admit, albeit against a severely crippled Bulls team. They did not perform well in the 2nd half of the season, but look at their schedule, it reveals that 12 of their last 17 losses were against playoff teams. They had some serious stinkers(Toronto, Nets, Wizards), but I think they played a difficult stretch run. 

Which 3 non-playoff teams in the West obviously deserve to be put above the Sixers? The Rockets? Suns? T-Wolves? None of them play any defense and can hardly be classified as clearly "better" than the Sixers. I would think the Sixers would be considered even odds or better to win a 7 game series against any of those squads.

Sure Doc Rivers knows he needs to dispose of the Sixers or Bulls in 5, maybe 6 games. We all do. The real question is---can they do it? They should, with all their HOFer's, but dispatching a young, energetic team like Philly(which beat Boston 2 out of 3 this season) is not going to be "quick work" and will certainly sap their energy prior to playing in the ECF. HOFer's get tired too.

"The teams have the same cores, and the Heat proved they can beat Boston easily last season.  The Celtics have actually lost talent through the attrition of D West, Von Wafer, and Baby Davis."

Right, they dispatched a Boston team that lost their best player in game 3 and beat an old, tired team.  

Losing D West was the only real loss, and the combo of a healthy Rondo and solid rookie Avery Bradley takes care of that.  Is Von Wafer really better than Pietrus?  The same Von Wafer who is an afterthought on the Magic?  Same goes for Baby Davis… Davis had mostly been a disappointment for Orlando this season and is just playing above his head right now.  Bass is a better defender, rebounder, and more consistent cog in the Celtics offense hitting spot up mid-range jumpers.  I think this was an upgrade as far as overall contribution to the team, notwithstanding Davis’ recent offensive successes (which would be unnecessary on the C’s anyway).  Stiemsma I believe leads the league in blocks per minute, and only needs to play for 12 minutes to be effective.  The Celts go 8 deep legitimately.  8 is enough.

I know it seems counterintuitive that the Celtics could be healthier and fresher this year than last year… but I think the fact that there were fewer games actually helps them overall.  Doc Rivers didn’t just throw the old guys out there when the season began… He pretty much eased them into it, and once the guys got into playing shape, let them loose.  The beauty is that they’ve been getting better at exactly the right time.

Not saying I guarantee a Celtics victory, I just think they’re better than 4-1 to win.

Never compared Wafer to Pietrus. Pietrus is a good shooter and decent defender, but nothing overly special. We differ on Bass, I think he and Big Baby are virtual clones on offense and Bass is a better rebounder, but that's about it. They both averaged about 12 ppg and 6 rpg in their last full seasons with the Celtics. Negligible.
Stiemsma is a non-factor. I just can't justfy his presence on the C's other than he fit under their salary cap minimum.

The Celtics are playing well, but are not considerably different or better than last season's squad. Rondo being healthy will be important, but, imo, not enough for them to prevail, if they play the Heat.

Not saying the Heat can't lose, but betting against them for a potential 4-1 payoff is not a prudent investment, in my opinion.




quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#48
Posted: 5/8/2012 6:18:27 PM
Kapono----I really like the discussion. Tell your friend thanks for his insight.

quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 34966
Location: California
#49
Posted: 5/10/2012 11:19:07 AM
OK, so maybe +400 isn't good enough for some of you guys. Is +600 good enough? My book is now showing Celtics at +600 to win the East.

I am slightly worried about Horford getting back into this thing and looking really pretty solid for his first two games back.
quote
evilelvis send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
evilelvis
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 2852
Location: California
#50
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:44:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Kapono----I really like the discussion. Tell your friend thanks for his insight.



Class act...this mellow_wolf
quote
Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 2 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.