Posted: 4/10/2012 11:07:22 AM
Well we learned yesterday that Nova was not a fluke from last year and that spring training pitching numbers mean nothing. We also learned that Matt Weiters may be a legitimate MVP candidate. If anyone on that team decided to hit other than him we would have had our overs.
No Pujols, no problem. St. Louis is still playing good ball. We also learned that Jake Westbrook still has it at the age of 34. Now I would note that 4 walks and a high ball to strike ratio may make me swing the opposite direction in his next start. I would chalk this game up to Cincinnati just getting off to a slow start.
Just a bad pick on the Red Sox over. I got what I expected in the beginning, two good young pitchers that went 5 and 6 innings respectfully. No one hit the bullpens though, so the second part failed. I think the big take away from this game is that Alvarez is a legitimate force. Look to ride him in his next couple starts and watch for his name to creep up the rising stars chart.
So lets look at the 1pm game here. I have it at 8.5 at my book and I have to say at first look that seems very low. I would assume that Vegas thinks Detroit has used up all its runs in the first three games of the year. Couple that with a strong pitching contingent from Tampa Bay and we have a seriously contentious game on our hands. Moore may be one of the better pitching prospects to come on the scene in the last year, while Porcello is really struggling to figure out a go to pitch and how to really hone it in.
With a slight breeze heading out towards the deepest part of the ballpark, I dont see weather being a significant factor. I would look for Moore to be very strong here and runs to be scarce on both sides. The obvious play is the over, but the more you look at this matchup I lean towards the under.
TB/DET- Under 8.5