1 PM start to the day + what we learned yesterday

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 1 PM start to the day + what we learned yesterday
storm978 PM storm978
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:07:22 AM
YTD- 2-3
WTD- 2-3

Well we learned yesterday that Nova was not a fluke from last year and that spring training pitching numbers mean nothing.  We also learned that Matt Weiters may be a legitimate MVP candidate.  If anyone on that team decided to hit other than him we would have had our overs.  

No Pujols, no problem. St. Louis is still playing good ball. We also learned that Jake Westbrook still has it at the age of 34.  Now I would note that 4 walks and a high ball to strike ratio may make me swing the opposite direction in his next start. I would chalk this game up to Cincinnati just getting off to a slow start.

Just a bad pick on the Red Sox over.  I got what I expected in the beginning, two good young pitchers that went 5 and 6 innings respectfully.  No one hit the bullpens though, so the second part failed.  I think the big take away from this game is that Alvarez is a legitimate force.  Look to ride him in his next couple starts and watch for his name to creep up the rising stars chart.


So lets look at the 1pm game here.  I have it at 8.5 at my book and I have to say at first look that seems very low.  I would assume that Vegas thinks Detroit has used up all its runs in the first three games of the year.  Couple that with a strong pitching contingent from Tampa Bay and we have a seriously contentious game on our hands.  Moore may be one of the better pitching prospects to come on the scene in the last year, while Porcello is really struggling to figure out a go to pitch and how to really hone it in.  

With a slight breeze heading out towards the deepest part of the ballpark, I dont see weather being a significant factor.  I would look for Moore to be very strong here and runs to be scarce on both sides.  The obvious play is the over, but the more you look at this matchup I lean towards the under.  

TB/DET- Under 8.5

ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:11:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by storm978:

YTD- 2-3
WTD- 2-3

Well we learned yesterday that Nova was not a fluke from last year and that spring training pitching numbers mean nothing.  We also learned that Matt Weiters may be a legitimate MVP candidate.  If anyone on that team decided to hit other than him we would have had our overs.  

No Pujols, no problem. St. Louis is still playing good ball. We also learned that Jake Westbrook still has it at the age of 34.  Now I would note that 4 walks and a high ball to strike ratio may make me swing the opposite direction in his next start. I would chalk this game up to Cincinnati just getting off to a slow start.

Just a bad pick on the Red Sox over.  I got what I expected in the beginning, two good young pitchers that went 5 and 6 innings respectfully.  No one hit the bullpens though, so the second part failed.  I think the big take away from this game is that Alvarez is a legitimate force.  Look to ride him in his next couple starts and watch for his name to creep up the rising stars chart.


So lets look at the 1pm game here.  I have it at 8.5 at my book and I have to say at first look that seems very low.  I would assume that Vegas thinks Detroit has used up all its runs in the first three games of the year.  Couple that with a strong pitching contingent from Tampa Bay and we have a seriously contentious game on our hands.  Moore may be one of the better pitching prospects to come on the scene in the last year, while Porcello is really struggling to figure out a go to pitch and how to really hone it in.  

With a slight breeze heading out towards the deepest part of the ballpark, I dont see weather being a significant factor.  I would look for Moore to be very strong here and runs to be scarce on both sides.  The obvious play is the over, but the more you look at this matchup I lean towards the under.  

TB/DET- Under 8.5



The wind will be blowing close to 20 knots. A slight breeze? I don't think so.

That's right. Knots.

Prince Fielder and his 19.6428 Stone may get a hold of a couple today as well.
storm978 PM storm978
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:13:52 AM
I got it at 12 MPH
doliver517 PM doliver517
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:19:57 AM

you say slight breeze??? I live 20 minutes from the field and the flag on the front porch across the street from me right now is sideways and stiff. It's been breezy here for days. I have no interest in the gm as I feel the line has coin flip all over it. I wouldn't bet against the Tigers because I wouldn't play Porcello in this spot, and wouldn't think about playing the under...

oh yeah, it's snowing too...won't last, but it is snowing. It's literally been in the 60's for 3 weeks now....but this morning, quickly melting snow for the last 10 minutes

storm978 PM storm978
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storm978
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:23:54 AM
Haha good stuff doliver, I still like Moore in this spot and the under, but I appreciate the input.
BeatThaBooks416 PM BeatThaBooks416
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Ontario
 
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:25:10 AM
darn got 100 on the over.. Good write up n BOL
sims_key PM sims_key
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:25:13 AM
basing what you learned yesterday on today's bets = longterm losing strategy.

better idea = forget what happened yesterday
storm978 PM storm978
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:57:47 AM
Good point sims, but my play today has nothing to do with yesterday.  Its just food for thought the next time we see those pitchers.  But I understand what your saying.  And beat the books, this is not a strong lean, so it could go either way, but I still like the under. 
eliminat0r85 PM eliminat0r85
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Posted: 4/10/2012 12:10:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by doliver517:

you say slight breeze??? I live 20 minutes from the field and the flag on the front porch across the street from me right now is sideways and stiff. It's been breezy here for days. I have no interest in the gm as I feel the line has coin flip all over it. I wouldn't bet against the Tigers because I wouldn't play Porcello in this spot, and wouldn't think about playing the under...

oh yeah, it's snowing too...won't last, but it is snowing. It's literally been in the 60's for 3 weeks now....but this morning, quickly melting snow for the last 10 minutes



Right slight breeze close to the river = hurricane.
storm978 PM storm978
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Posted: 4/10/2012 1:50:43 PM
Off to a good start.
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