Michigan Discussion

Forum: Nascar
Author: [Nascar] Topic: Michigan Discussion
madshooter72 PM madshooter72
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Posted: 6/12/2012 7:04:23 PM
Qualifying Matchups - Quicken Loans 400 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI - Saturday, 16th 1:00 PM -
 Speed

Fri 6/15         6001 Kasey Kahne (Qualifying)         -135                  
12:30PM          6002 Ryan Newman (Qualifying)          +105
                 
Fri 6/15         6003 Jimmie Johnson (Qualifying)     -155                  
12:30PM          6004 Jeff Gordon (Qualifying)          +125
                 
Fri 6/15         6005 Greg Biffle (Qualifying)         -155                  
12:30PM          6006 Carl Edwards (Qualifying)          +125
                 
Fri 6/15         6007 Dale Earnhardt Jr (Qualifying)     -140                
12:30PM          6008 Kevin Harvick (Qualifying)          +110     


            
Sprint Cup   Quicken Loans 400
Fri 6/15  12:30



Jimmie Johnson      +675
Matt Kenseth      +900
Kyle Busch      +950
Carl Edwards      +950
Greg Biffle      +1100
Jeff Gordon      +1200
Tony Stewart      +1200
Denny Hamlin      +1200
Kasey Kahne      +1300
Brad Keselowski      +1300
Kevin Harvick      +1300
Dale Earnhardt Jr  +1500
Mark Martin      +2600
Ryan Newman      +3200
Martin Truex Jr      +3200
Clint Bowyer      +3200
Joey Logano      +4500
Kurt Busch      +5500
Marcos Ambrose      +5500
Jeff Burton      +5500
madshooter72 PM madshooter72
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Posted: 6/12/2012 7:11:49 PM
I honestly don't see anything that sticks out right now, Q plays are matched up correctly except for Jr/Harvick who have pretty much the same Q avg. last 4 races here.


Top 5 at Calli were (this year)

Stewart
Kyle
Jr
Harvick
Edwards



None of those guys (ex. Jr) have been running well recently....I would have hoped to get a little more value on Jr and think we will see that after practices and Qing......figure if he does drop at all, he shouldn't go below +1000

stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 6/12/2012 7:40:39 PM
fyi, cali was cut short due to rain  tony and denny had the best car but when rain came darren brought denny down pit road and the race never got re started...  my top4 this week call for denny,kyle,tony and biffle..  this year has really gotten hard 2 hit a winner i feel each week the books are giving decent odds but there r 12 drivers who have a chance at winning each week  4 hendrick cars, 3 roush cars, 2 gibbs and then smoke,brad and harvick...   i have made WAY more this year n the n.wide then sprint cup...   hope all others r faring well
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 6/12/2012 7:45:46 PM
keep n mind there is also 6 or 7 hrs of testing thur.   as michigan has also been repaved...    soon as n.wide r posted i am playing   brad,logano and menard as my sleeper pick.... great weekend of sports racing,us open,college world series and mlb 
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/12/2012 10:23:04 PM
I'll be all over the Fords this week as I normally am at Michigan.  Biffle and Kenseth will run good here...I expect them to be top 5. 
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 6/12/2012 11:25:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

I'll be all over the Fords this week as I normally am at Michigan.  Biffle and Kenseth will run good here...I expect them to be top 5. 
  think carl gets it going this weekend??
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/12/2012 11:50:45 PM
Something not right with him, his car and his team.  I'm not ready to lay $$$ with him just yet until they show me they have their act together.  Kenseth ran so good here last year, and just messed up all the restarts...if he was halfway decent on restarts he would have won going away.  I think Kenseth and Biffle are much safer wagers than Carl.  Not saying he won't do well...but I can't bet on him and feel safe.  I'm also hoping Logano gets some love from the books based on last week...I'd love to fade him.

Honestly, I've been making money on some of the really bad lines the books have put out...loading up on those on the day of the race.  Last week having Bowyer O/U 16.5 was a terrible line...was able to capitalize on that.  The Steward line of O/U 12.5 at Dover was terrible...capitalized on that.  There have been several others that have been way off, and I've noticed just about everyone on here has noticed them.  Hoping we catch another one this week.  Sportsbook has been the book that has posted some of the worse.  Hopefully they don't check these threads...
thehuntman PM thehuntman
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Posted: 6/13/2012 9:44:49 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Something not right with him, his car and his team.  I'm not ready to lay $$$ with him just yet until they show me they have their act together.  Kenseth ran so good here last year, and just messed up all the restarts...if he was halfway decent on restarts he would have won going away.  I think Kenseth and Biffle are much safer wagers than Carl.  Not saying he won't do well...but I can't bet on him and feel safe.  I'm also hoping Logano gets some love from the books based on last week...I'd love to fade him.

Honestly, I've been making money on some of the really bad lines the books have put out...loading up on those on the day of the race.  Last week having Bowyer O/U 16.5 was a terrible line...was able to capitalize on that.  The Steward line of O/U 12.5 at Dover was terrible...capitalized on that.  There have been several others that have been way off, and I've noticed just about everyone on here has noticed them.  Hoping we catch another one this week.  Sportsbook has been the book that has posted some of the worse.  Hopefully they don't check these threads...

Logano was a gift last week at that site. I have 5 online accounts and hopefully I have the time this Sunday morning to look for some mistakes. If I find any I will be sure to post them.

I have been to the Michigan track for 10 races over the years so I have a pretty good handle on who does well there. I do agree with the Fords...Matty, The Biff and Horsehead always run well here.

Gas strategy can have a huge say on who wins this race and that is something you can't cap.

 

GL 

thehuntman PM thehuntman
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Posted: 6/13/2012 9:48:45 AM
I look for Kahne and Kyle Busch to both come back strong come Sunday after not finishing last week.
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 6/13/2012 10:59:51 AM
don't 4get michigan was re paved some1 could jump out of no where and steal the show like joey did at pocono  say what u want abt. joey but he ran a great race sun.  never fell out of the top 5 except on pit cycles....     sportsbook has posted there match up's and the only play that jumps out at me 4 sure is truex-newman -110  truex has been great on the 1.5-2 mile tracks this year..   should have 1 kansas and got a bad set of tires on the last stop and denny went on 2 win...  also had a top5 car at cali.  and finished 8th    newman isn't having the speed on the 1.5-2 mile tracks this year....
madshooter72 PM madshooter72
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Posted: 6/13/2012 11:42:38 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by stats1:

fyi, cali was cut short due to rain  tony and denny had the best car but when rain came darren brought denny down pit road and the race never got re started...  my top4 this week call for denny,kyle,tony and biffle..  this year has really gotten hard 2 hit a winner i feel each week the books are giving decent odds but there r 12 drivers who have a chance at winning each week  4 hendrick cars, 3 roush cars, 2 gibbs and then smoke,brad and harvick...   i have made WAY more this year n the n.wide then sprint cup...   hope all others r faring well

 

thanks buddy, totally forgot about that.

kouz PM kouz
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Posted: 6/13/2012 8:18:20 PM
I know they haven't practiced yet on the new asphalt, but the roush-fenway cars r stout @ this track. My early leans are the 16, 17 & 2. Carl is starting to get his act together, & ole Jr. is starting to make me a believer, thought he was gonna cash for me last week! Anyway lets see how practices turn out. GL to everyone this week
Also my book has jj +600, matt,kyle &carl +900. Got the biff @ +1100-may go ahead & bite on this 1!
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 6/14/2012 1:08:10 PM
Martin just unrolled FAST again. In the first 3 hour practice, he was the only one to average over 201.

#55-Martin 201.089
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/14/2012 4:51:06 PM
Only 1 Ford in the top 10 (Biffle).  Kenseth 16th...the rest of the Fords at the bottom, and waaaaaaay slower.  Something to keep an eye on.
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 6/15/2012 11:13:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Only 1 Ford in the top 10 (Biffle).  Kenseth 16th...the rest of the Fords at the bottom, and waaaaaaay slower.  Something to keep an eye on.


I don't think a lot of teams really showed what they had yet---just tinkering around with different setups.

Granted, you still want to be on the top of the charts, but I wouldn't look too far into yesterday's tests. The two practices today however..
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/15/2012 2:54:17 PM
Hamlin hasn't shown much so far...looks like Martin, Jr, and Stewart have the speed right now...Kenseth has been getting faster also.  Unlike some tracks I think qualifying is going to show us a lot.
madshooter72 PM madshooter72
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Posted: 6/15/2012 4:22:38 PM
Hendrick cars certainly have found some HP lately.....Jr looks really strong, so you know at best he will finish 2nd or 3rd, wondering when in the hell he is going to win a race again.....maybe never.
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 8/13/2012 10:12:45 PM
bumping this thread so we can c what lines opened at for the last mich. race and c what they r this weekend    will b on all 3 gibbs cars 4 sure this weekend....
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