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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
smoothd20
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#8101
Posted: 4/29/2012 10:18:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

RapĂ ged again today 1-3 so far. 

Taking Memphis and under. GL 
You have a good system Czech I just think that sometimes you need to throw in other factors. I like using a mix but at the end of the day sometimes you just have to go with what the numbers tell you and play the percentages. 
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#8102
Posted: 4/29/2012 10:55:04 PM
Best picks are proving to be the favorites when B's on the dog. 3-0 so far.

Today B's on Boston and Clips And yesterday it was the Knicks. Favorites are looking at a 6-2 start ats in the playoffs and only 2 losses were OKC and Indi yesterday, both of whom the Busters were on. 

So favorites are 3-0 when the busters are on the dog, 3-2 when the busters are on the favorite. 


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#8103
Posted: 4/29/2012 10:55:51 PM
what do handcuffs mean???
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#8104
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:02:55 PM
This makes a lot of sense when you think about it. Vegas doesn't want to give points to a team that the public is all over, EVER. 

So if you see a case of B's being all over a dog (and by all over I mean 60%+) and they're getting points and the line doesn't drop and even goes other way giving them MORE points, like we saw with NY yesterday and Clips today, there is something wrong with this and the fav is the play. 

Cases so far:

Miami (spanked NY)
Memphis (spanking Clips)
Atlanta (spanked Boston) 

Atlanta was a game close to pk so we can kinda exclude that one but I still think Boston coulda been favored with everyone on them. That -1.5 looked juicy on Atlanta but I laid off. Ugh. 
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#8105
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:06:05 PM
Look anyone could make $ betting favorites so far in playoffs since they're 6-2 (assuming Memphis covers) so far which is 75%. 

If you only take the ones where public likes dog, however, you're looking at 3-0, 100%. 

Hey SmoothD you like streaks let's see how long this streak lasts. We're looking at results for every favorite that becomes a play according to system when the B's on the dog. 3-0 so far In last 2 days. 
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#8106
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:29:56 PM
I didn't know this until yesterday but here's an interesting stat: teams that win game 1 in playoffs win series 78% of the time. That's a huge stat and I shoulda thought twice about taking any dogs like Denver for game 1. You know the better teams are gonna come out with all they have in game 1 to get that edge and taking the dog is too risky. 
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#8107
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:35:26 PM
This is my first playoff betting and I am still learning. System absolutely raped it during reg season but game 1 of playoffs is proving to be a challenge. 

Today system plays were:

Denver 
Denver over
Atl
Memphis 

I didn't mention Atl earlier but it still qualified. Mem total did not since line went back up but I took it anyways. 

System looking a 2-2 again today and 2-2 yesterday and these are bad days at 50%. Not bad when you think about it 
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#8108
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:41:03 PM
4-4 isn't the end of the world for system so far, just need a 3-1 next time to get us to 58% 
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#8109
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:22:42 AM
HORRORS IN THE NBA!!!

This is why I didn't like Mem in the first place and shoulda disqualified them, they were up 26 pts in the 3rd quarter when I was posting a little while ago AND THEY JUST LOST OUTRIGHT friggin BUSTERS WOW 

I took Clips second half for a middle thank God but should have hit both bets. Unbelievable that Memphis lost its the greatest comeback in NBA playoff HISTORY. 

So we have to adjust our numbers, system plays today 1-3, 3-5 last 2 days, and fav's 2-1 with busters on the dog. Wow 
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#8110
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:23:08 AM

How does anyone cap that B.S. that just happened?????

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#8111
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:24:00 AM
Also favorites are now 5-3 so far instead of 6-2. 
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smoothd20
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#8112
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:33:36 AM
WOW! AMAZING COMEBACK BY THE CLIPPERS!!!!
Down by 27 points in the 2nd half and 24 points with 8 min left. Memphis finds a way to blow it. Unbelievable. Czech I feel for you man. That was painful for me to watch and I didn't bet it nor did I have a streak on it. Memphis choked big time! 
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crushalot22
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#8113
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:36:20 AM
I had Memphis moneyline to finish off a 4 teamer.......I watched the whole trainwreck happen.......            
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smoothd20
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#8114
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:08:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by crushalot22:

I had Memphis moneyline to finish off a 4 teamer.......I watched the whole trainwreck happen.......            
They lost their composure and I don't think Hollins did a good job in calming everybody down. I stopped watching when it was 81-56 and then all of the sudden I hear person Stockton going crazy and they were down by 13 then in blink of an eye it was 6. The rest is history. Happy for the Clippers but that was painful to watch. I would have bet the Clippers if I had bet but I stayed away because I didn't know how they would play in their 1st Playoff game in years. Now we know. Just an incredible turn of events. Sorry that you as well as Czech were on the wrong side of history in that one. 
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smoothd20
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#8115
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:12:04 AM
Edwardglenn- What's up buddy! Yeah I can't wait till Football. I think I owe you a few behind whippings after those heartbreakers you put on me last year. Good to see you back on the thread. 
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#8116
Posted: 4/30/2012 4:24:46 AM

If you followed the griz at all lately this isnt a big shock,to me anyway,they have been doing this down their winning stretch to end reg season. I like clippers plus pts,but took over instead. Go look at the griz last 10 games,they win but dont cover.I had magic last game of the year at +15.Sure enough griz were up 20+ and failed to cover. There's something just not right with that team.

I also had over ATL, which lost and will bet every under in that series now that i saw game 1.

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#8117
Posted: 4/30/2012 4:29:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by crushalot22:

How does anyone cap that B.S. that just happened?????

Play the over,lol

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smoothd20
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#8118
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:41:00 AM
BAY AREA BASH BROTHERS BASEBALL LEAGUE

Championship (Krams) 8
Fireballs (Smooth) 6
In a close battle down to the finish Championship defeated the Fireballs with timely hitting. Carlos Gonzalez led Championship to victory with 4HRs and 11 RBI's while batting .391.Championship now moves back into 1st place but they have company in the Blue Crushers.

Blue Crushers (Crushalot) 8
Shanks  6

The Blue Crushers are in the Penthouse thanks to another great victory. OF Corey Hart led the Blue Crushers to victory with a .556 Avg while belting 2 monster blasts. Hart had a 1.556 slugging percentage to boot. This is the Crushers 1st visit to the Penthouse and Team Owner Crushalot says they plan on being there for awhile.

Always 2nd Place 9
California Bears (Booyahz)4

The California Bears were pounded by their opponent and as a result dropped from 1st to 5th place in the very tough Bash Brothers League. Despite belting a league high of 10 HR's and having 1.51 ERA the Bears simply couldn't overcome Alway's 2nd Place balanced attack.

               Standings    GB
1. Blue Crushers  .643 -
1. Championship  .643 -
3. Always 2nd Place .625 1
4. Str8ballin Onusuckas .589 3
5. California Bears .589  3
6. Green Smokers .545  5.5
7. Fireballs  .411 13
8. Home Run Kingz .348 16.5
9. Tssajos .321 18
10. Shanks .286 20
__________________________
This week Championship will battle Always 2nd Place for 1st Place. While the Blue Crushers will go to war with the California Bears as these 2 early powers fight for $25 Dime Club bragging rights. 

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smoothd20
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#8119
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:47:02 AM
FREE BOOYAHZ! 
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#8120
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:33:17 PM

I wonder if mrscrubspicks knows since he has the tiebreaker over boomer56 if he doesn't pick today he'll win the monthly contest?

If he's not aware Boomer56 should wait and see who he picks and take the other team . 

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#8121
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:33:28 PM

I wonder if mrscrubspicks knows since he has the tiebreaker over boomer56 if he doesn't pick today he'll win the monthly contest?

If he's not aware Boomer56 should wait and see who he picks and take the other team . 

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smoothd20
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#8122
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:18:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hummingbird:

I wonder if mrscrubspicks knows since he has the tiebreaker over boomer56 if he doesn't pick today he'll win the monthly contest?

If he's not aware Boomer56 should wait and see who he picks and take the other team . 

Good point but no matter what Boomer has to pick. If I was Mrs. Scrubs I would be the one waiting. Boomer needs to find a good game to pick and force the lady to pick and hope for the best. Nice Avatar BTW.
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smoothd20
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#8123
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:20:38 PM
Not much to choose from on Survivor as far as baseball is concerned but I'm looking hard at Milwaukee. Wolf has been lousy but there is no better team to get you healthy quick than the Padres. Line movement looks good in a tip of the hat to Czech. 
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#8124
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:22:02 PM
PICK OF THE DAY:

Under 9 Tex @ Tor
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smoothd20
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#8125
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:31:50 PM
I'm taking the Phillies and Toronto so far on Bovada. Still haven't decided on Milwaukee but we should have some good winners tonight.
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