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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
CZECH_RAZOR send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
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#8051
Posted: 4/28/2012 5:26:39 PM
Hey BOOYAHZ I am watching this Mia game and scratching my head man. 

Dude this is why I shared the system, I've been watching all season this system rape night after night, but I am a rookie and haven't learned any discipline. 

Miami is a usual-public play and at home vs a low seed NY team and the public is on NY. I am a buster and even tended to like NY. Yet I watch the line go up to -9 and the public is ALL OVER NY. 

The sharps are obviously on Miami laying some huge wood and pushing the line up. Furthermore we watched the line move progressively down to 186.5 early, indicating it as a sharp play which is why I liked it. The busters again were all over the over (granted dogs and overs go together imo and favs and unders usually) and the line was dropping. The wood was getting laid on the under. 

Now we know it shot up late and this is scary enough to lay off the total, BUT MIAMI NEVER DROPPED. Usually if NY becomes strong and the total shoots up late the line should move on NY also, since they're correlated...do you follow me so far? But Miami stayed strong at -9. 

So we've already established that favorite line moves are something special when the public is on the dog PLUS they stayed strong even though the total got fishy. This is a huge indicator of a SHARP PLAY in my opinion. 

This thing is like a puzzle and can be figured out. The problem is the indicators are not as strong for every game. I wanted action on that Bulls game but the criteria were not there for that game. You could make an argument for Phi but not really since the public was not heavily on the bulls as expected. There was actually an unusually high percentage 45% of busters on the dog, which is good for the favorite. 

The only thing I like about my under pick on Bulls (and it was DEAD WRONG btw) was total originally went down a full point and B's on the over. But then it went back up 1/2 a point. This 1/2 pt move does not qualify as a line move in my book. I look for moves 1 pt plus and 1/2 pt can happen for any reason and doesn't tell us diddly squat. 

So that game honestly needed to be a complete no-play. I know I am droning on here but trying to bring you guys up to speed so we can discuss games in the future together from this angle. 

The system didn't darn me earlier I did that myself. I am cashing a nice ticket on Miami today though to make up for it :)
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#8052
Posted: 4/28/2012 5:42:44 PM
I'm gonna say one more thing for the day and that's it it's kinda obvious why they shot the line up on Miami o/u late, and I mention this kind of in the system but need to clarify. 

Vegas manipulates and adjusts lines according to what they like vs what they know the public is going to bet. 

The sharps were on the under as we were but Vegas knew the busters were coming in hot and heavy on the over right before tip off. So they ADJUSTED the line from 186.5 straight to 187.5, then to 188 as the B's laid their bets. 

This is why I spelled out in the system that we look for PROGRESSIVE moves, not ADJUSTED moves. The adjusted ones like we saw today of a full point and a half in 2 minutes are not trust-worthy. The progressive ones are indicative of action, not adjustment by the books.
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#8053
Posted: 4/28/2012 6:06:57 PM
Alright I am making a final analysis on the Indi game. 

There is NOTHING in the consensus to really make anything is this line "sharp". Sorry guys. 

With that being said I think there is a high percentage of B's on Orlando and the under, and I personally like the over yet Indi is a bigger move. 

I don't usually take a fav with an over, but I think this may be the play on this game as I don't think they can both lose yet I do think they can both win. 1-1 would be alright but 2-0 would be great and 0-2 is HIGHLY unlikely. 
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#8054
Posted: 4/28/2012 6:13:06 PM
Thanks for the tip on taking the unders for that Heat game CZECH_RAZOR, got W12 now just 1 win away from getting that hoodie, and 5 away from the 1K.
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#8055
Posted: 4/28/2012 6:22:08 PM
Redemption for the Czech! 2-0 on the Miami game 2-2 for the day and 1-1 on the sharp plays. 

Pending sharp plays are:

Indi 
Indi over
OKC under


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#8056
Posted: 4/28/2012 6:27:41 PM
You got it Trax good job!  The under was never a sweat for you and that's always nice. 

I am torn on this stupid Indi game but my gut likes the over. I'm not sure on Indi but they seem strong due to the line action. This could be more public-related than we think though so I am scared and prob gonna lay off. 

I do LOVE the OKC under though. I was just about to take it at 192.5 and it just went to 192. 

Guys this is the SHARP PLAY tonight. Take OKC under. I'm taking it big 
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#8057
Posted: 4/28/2012 6:32:09 PM
Here's another sharp play in hockey:

STL under 4.5 EV 

I don't usually pick much hockey but am adding this one to the card tonight. 
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#8058
Posted: 4/28/2012 7:57:34 PM
Damn have you guys checked out the leaders record, this guy just started playing with a overall record of 44-24-1, he's at W15 now but before that he had already had a W9 streak, so in that short time he's already won 2 hats & a hoodie with 2 wins away from the 1K.  This guy has to be thinking that this thing is easy as hell.
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#8059
Posted: 4/28/2012 9:36:50 PM
Czech goes down in a blaze of glory! Word has come that he escaped the bandits outside the city limits only to get a mile down the road to meet his demise.

Tough day so far figures I'd start like this. Oh well it's gonna be a long road

I def knew the indi game was trouble and this is why I said there were no sharp plays on it. However I needed to pick it anyways and took indi and the over.

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#8060
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:01:41 PM
The sharps take a bath today!  Good day for the busters. Busters were on Chicago and the over and Indi and the under. Looks like they went 3-1 so far today pretty unusual actually. We can't be too hard on ourselves though since even the sharps have bad days. 
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#8061
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:08:33 PM
I am 3-4 so far today with the STL under hitting. Only sharp plays so far were Phi and Mia and STL under so they're 2-1 so far. Not so bad. My personal picks chi under Mia under and Indi are 1-2. 

OKC and the under pending! Let's go
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#8062
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:25:15 PM
Czech_Razor- Don't worry about my man. Here at the $25 Dime Club we support each other unconditionally win or lose. Believe me everybody in here has had ugly winning streaks and I mean ugly so you losing a couple of games means nothing. You are showing your knowledge and no doubt will become a valuable member for a long time.
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#8063
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:27:20 PM
Today I'm back on the hot train I'm 4-0 so far on Bovada with Dallas+8 pending. I won my big bets Angels and the Cardinals. My Survivor pick was rained out so we're riding high again!
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#8064
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:43:57 PM
My observation and this really pertains to baseball more than other sport is this. I love the knowledge that Czech_Razor is putting out and Booyahz has been supplying us different angles for a long time as well. When I look at a game and again we're talking baseball here. Sometimes you have to go beyond the line movements. I'm big on pitching matchups and recent trends. Also as we have discussed in this club on many occasions you have to look at the intangibles. I will give you 2 examples. The Angels are struggling mightily while Cleveland is playing over their head IMO. The Angels call up their top prospect in Trout. Now that alone will bring excitement and focus to the team and with Haren pitching after they have lost 5 straight. I figured it was a good time for a win. Not to forget Haren has a great record against the Indians. All those pointed to a big bet by me on the Angels. 
Another example is Miami. Now I laid off of Miami because I have gone with them 2 days in a row. One game I lost my streak and the other I lost my money. This is isn't good. But I did take them on the Baseball contest thinking they had a good chance of winning. Signs were, long losing streak and a good pitcher in Sanchez. I didn't bet it because I wasn't sure after 2 disappointing losses in a row. My point is that when betting baseball sometimes you have to look at other factors especially if the line movements don't add up.
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#8065
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:57:36 PM
BAMA AMBUSHED BY DOUBLE CROSSING MARLINS!!!
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Bama and his posse were shot down by the same Marlin bunch that led Smoothd into a trap. The ambush happened just as Bama was getting closer to HOODVILLE and now Bama will have to reload and come back with a stronger force. Revenge is a dish best served through the barrel of a gun and Bama will get retribution on those Marlins!
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#8066
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:02:45 PM
TRAX TROOPS GATHER JUST OUTSIDE GATES OF HOODVILLE
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Armed with inside info from Czech_Razor Trax avoided the fate that befell Bama and advanced to the gates of HOODVILLE.  Trax's troops have vowed to take down HOODVILLE after their treachery took down his riding partner in Bama.  After Trax conquers HOODVILLE  they will turn their attention to Thousand Dollar City where troops have already start preparing in anticipation of Trax's arrival! Good Luck Trax you're our only hope now. You ride alone and there is no help forthcoming. Godspeed to you and your posse!
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#8067
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:08:30 PM
I'm standing up and giving Bama a standing ovation!  Bama did something that few have done before and that's have double digit streaks on 2 count'em 2 websites. I think we all know the pressure along with the publicity that comes from 1 streak but to have that multiplied by 2 and to keep it going is nothing short of astonishing. Great Job Bama Great Job! BAMA
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#8068
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:59:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by smoothd20:

I'm standing up and giving Bama a standing ovation!  Bama did something that few have done before and that's have double digit streaks on 2 count'em 2 websites. I think we all know the pressure along with the publicity that comes from 1 streak but to have that multiplied by 2 and to keep it going is nothing short of astonishing. Great Job Bama Great Job! BAMA

 

HEAR HEAR!!!!!!!!   Back on the saddle brother.....       

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#8069
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:41:09 AM
Guys this is par for the course but my first day posting picks was a bloody massacre.

It's easy to have 20/20 hindsight, and I already explained "ad nauseum" how I screwed up today, but let's recap all the picks real briefly.

Phi +8.5 qualified under rule 1 and 2 but NOT 3 = NO
Phi under 175 NOT under 1 but yes 2 and 3 = NO
Mia -9 yes under 1,2,3 = Sharp play
Mia under yes1,2,3 = SHARP PLAY (late adj discredited)
Indi -9.5 yes on 1 no on 2, 3 = NO
Indi over yes on 1,2,3 = Sharp play
Okc -7.5 no on 1,2 yes on 3 = NO
OKC under 192 yes on 1,2,3 = SHARP PLAY
STL under 4.5 = NO (hockey)

So we see that I produced 9 plays tonight but only 4 were sharp plays according to the "Big 3" in my system.

They went 2-2 tonight but I really thought okc under was coming in especially after that first half. Tough night, for sure.

My personal picks went an ABYSMAL 1-4 with the one win in hockey. This is the worst I can remember doing in a long time.

The system produced 2-2 which is fine but under expectations. I made the great mistake today of breaking the rules and let you guys down. One thing I wanted to do in here is NOT share my personal buster picks but ONLY the sharp plays.

I will make it up in this thread in the future. The system is sound though. We saw 2-0 from SmoothD last night using it and 2-2 today in the NBA. Further, today was a BAD day for the system and it still managed 50%. Normally it does much better.

I think the "playoffs" also affected this. There are always additional "intangibles" during the playoffs. The system was absolutely smoking hot heading in and if you guys don't believe it then do the research. I can show you many nights where I went 6-1, 7-1, 5-0, etc. But tonight was a crazy night in the world of hoops.

I mean come on Indi lost and no one expected that. NY got spanked for over 30 points again unexpected. Indi was held to 70-something points. Huh?
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#8070
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:58:15 AM
Haha, love it Smooth, definitely getting myself that hoodie, & hopefully the 1K club will be around the corner.   This is my second double digit streak, last time it ended at 10, so I'm 2 up on that.   

And yeah speaking of ugly losing streaks I just finnished one myself, got a $10 free bet from Bovada a month ago and had run it up to $120, then just bombed from there losing about 8 in a row until it was gone.
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#8071
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:00:30 AM
Sorry about the loss there Bama, thats tough losing 2 big streaks on back to back nights over here & at ESPN, hopefully the next one is around the corner.
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#8072
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:00:32 AM
I came into this thread hot as a Filipino firecracker and passed the luck to smoothD lol. He's done better than I have with my own info thusfar and I was cold as a cucumber today.

I vow revenge! I will be more selective with any future posts, not to mention bets as I took a bath this evening.

Czech is down for the count tonight. He got hit with a 1-2 combo and got knocked out cold But tomorrow is a new day
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#8073
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:13:28 PM
Hey guys, heads up on a couple lines. 

1) clippers game tonight.  Busters are on Clippers and line is moving on Memphis. Further, the o/u Has dropped from 185 to 183.5.  Busters are all over the over. Hmmm?  So the public like clips and the over, yet the line is moving on Memphis and the under.  I will watch this line today but it's looking like Mem/under so far. 

2) Denver +4.5 o/u 201.5  line was at 5.5 and 202 busters on Lakers and the over but total has dropped 1/2 pt (not enough for a play) and line moving on Denver? Denver is looking like the play so far and meet all 3 criteria need to watch this line throughout the day. 

When I first saw the Clips matchup I liked the clips. I took Memphis a couple times toward end of season and they failed to deliver and I'm not in love with Memphis, and obviously neither is public. But we are busters sometimes. 

These 2 moves are definitely looking SHARP so far. Memphis and under. I am not yet sold on Memphis but the under looks like the play. 

Also I like Denver. They meet all 3 criteria they are a line move in opposition to the consensus and I like them. 

2 SHARP PLAYS TODAY ARE:

Denver with the points 
Memphis under 
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#8074
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:23:25 PM
I have to add Memphis on the sharp play list. Furthermore Denver is not much of a move so far to say they're sharp plus I like Denver with the over not the under. 

My plays are Denver and over, Memphis and under. 

Memphis and under are sharp, Denver and over are my leans. Good luck 
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#8075
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:29:42 PM
Okay we have a situation here. Sorry for the short notice but I have just seen this. Oakland-Baltimore. Public is on Baltimore odds started as Baltimore being the Fav -105 now Balt is the +103 Oak has gone from -101 and now they're -109. Is this a  reverse Buster move? Where under Booyahz's system where both team are minus unless the visiting team comes from AL East. This is a tough one. I just saw that Hunter is undefeated against Oakland. 5-0 I'm going with Baltimore in a reverse Buster move I guess.
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