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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls
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#26
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:23:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AnthonyStarks:

I have this capped at 190 but good write up you got me second guessing myself, almost, either way

190?  How?
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#27
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:25:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


190?  How?


mathematically i came up w 181. after that i took into account the fact that Rose was not playing. That leaves us with the free for all were seeing now. Chi's got nobody really running the 1, and the Sixers? Don't even get me started .Lou will leading scorer but Evan Turner starts. Both are going to push a little but the whole situation results in less set offense.
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#28
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:38:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AnthonyStarks:



mathematically i came up w 181. after that i took into account the fact that Rose was not playing. That leaves us with the free for all were seeing now. Chi's got nobody really running the 1, and the Sixers? Don't even get me started .Lou will leading scorer but Evan Turner starts. Both are going to push a little but the whole situation results in less set offense.

So you ADDED 9 points for Rose's absence?  I don't know how you came up with this number.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11CHI3.HTM
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#29
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:46:30 PM
Yes, exactly. Are you watching the game there is barely any set offense.
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#30
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:52:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AnthonyStarks:

Yes, exactly. Are you watching the game there is barely any set offense.

I'm watching the game.  But I subtracted points from the total based on offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that were calculated with over 1300 minutes of data without Rose on the floor.  That's a huge amount of data.  The decline in offense and improvement in defense has been proven statistically throughout the season.
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#31
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:53:04 PM
Also forgot to mention the obvious, D Rose out equals much less separation.
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#32
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:01:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


I'm watching the game.  But I subtracted points from the total based on offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that were calculated with over 1300 minutes of data without Rose on the floor.  That's a huge amount of data.  The decline in offense and improvement in defense has been proven statistically throughout the season.


Ok, but whoever set this line clearly already did that so why subtract from the total already, that's first.  Second, I feel the pg situation both teams have will lead to the free for all that we are seeing now.  Also I added 9-10 pts to the total i came up w because I threw a lot of stats out the window. I took into consideration that the sixers would  try to capitalize on this chance to get in this series w/ rose out, which would keep the score closer and drive it up.
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#33
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:12:03 PM
yeah... they def seem to be running tonight... both teams showing urgency and aggression.... on to next game... unless an incredible shooting plummet happens...

no worries Silly.... let's get em next game...
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#34
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:23:24 PM
*** Added Play ***


2h - Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls Under 88.5 (-110)

Going to try and break even on this game by hitting the second half under (adjusted full game under 190.5).  These two teams combined to go 12/14 in the final four minutes of the first half.  That won't please either of these defensive minded coaches.  Expect a much better defensive effort in the second half by these two power houses.  I don't think my full game under has much of a chance left, but my research speaks for itself and I still like the under in this match-up.  I'll be on it again in the next game and the game after that if the oddsmakers keep raising the total.
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#35
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:56:36 PM
What the darn is this?  15/21 shooting in the third quarter for the 76ers?  
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#36
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:31:20 PM
8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls Under 176 (-110)  
2h - Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls Under 88.5 (-110)  

Horrible defensive effort by the Bulls in the third quarter and that spiriled this game out of control.  They allowed the 76ers to shoot 70% in the 3rd.  Not what you'd expect from the leagues best defense playing at home.  Oddsmakers, please raise the total again so I can bet the under in the next game.


'11-12 NBA-P:  2-6 (25.0%)  -4.65u



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