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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 9:50 EST - Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:32:55 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80 (49.0%)  -13.28u

'11-12 NBA-P:  0-2 (00.0%)  -2.20u


9:35 EST - Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-115)

A couple things surprised me about the first game.  Dallas out-rebounded Oklahoma City and they took more trips to the free throw line.  Why?  Because the Thunder settled for too many jump shots on offense.  Durant was looking for his touch and he tried to shoot his way into finding it.  With the game winning shot in the final seconds falling by way of the shooters roll, it's safe to say he'll have a lot more confidence going into tonight's game.  I expect he'll be attacking the rim much more frequently (which is how the Thunder took over the game in the fourth quarter on Saturday).  By bringing the ball into the interior, OKC will get to the line more frequently and give them a better shot at second chance points.  Also, I doubt Dallas has another 10/22 night shooting from beyond the arc which included 7/14 shooting from Marion and 8/10 from the Jet.  With these numbers all declining and the Thunder finding more free points from the charity stripe and second chance opportunities I expect they'll have an easier time recording the home victory.  At the end of the game, the Thunder will have more free throw attempts, more offensive rebounds and shoot a higher percentage than the Mavericks.  This spread is below the key number of 7 and offers 4.28 points of value against my model.  Thunder by double digits.

#7 Dallas Mavericks vs #2 Oklahoma City Thunder.pdf
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#2
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:34:04 PM
Forgot to update my record:


'11-12 
NBA-P:  1-2 (33.3%)  -1.20u
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#3
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:34:42 PM
Thunder -6.5 for me.. Leanin Under.. Dallas has to keep it close like last night, hard to do being the older team, OKC is too crazy at home their crowd is so energetic tough to play back to back home series there.
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#4
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:38:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LVRNCAPPER:

Thunder -6.5 for me.. Leanin Under.. Dallas has to keep it close like last night, hard to do being the older team, OKC is too crazy at home their crowd is so energetic tough to play back to back home series there.

The only way this goes under is if Dallas really forces the half court game.  I don't think they'll be able to dictate the pace on the road.  Look for another high scoring game tonight and then take the under when Dallas heads home.
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#5
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:39:31 PM
Did anyone have Miami -10?  Pushing moose is a pain in the behind.
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#6
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:45:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Did anyone have Miami -10?  Pushing moose is a pain in the behind.
lol I had Knicks 2H +4 so basically +10 for game.  I damn near kicked my TV I was so happy when JR made that shot.
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#7
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:59:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vegaslover:

lol I had Knicks 2H +4 so basically +10 for game.  I damn near kicked my TV I was so happy when JR made that shot.

Yeah I guess if you have New York the opposite is true.  Not quite as epic as the Clippers last night, but hey, at the end of the day as long as you're not losing money - right?

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#8
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:07:03 PM
Smart move by the officials to take their time getting back into this game.  Let cooler heads prevail.
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#9
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:22:57 PM
Strong finish to the quarter with Westbrook and Durant both on the bench.  Great sign for the Thunder second unit.

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#10
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:24:22 PM
What it would be like to play there.. For or against that crowd.. So insane
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#11
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:26:24 PM
Right out with the same unit to start the second quarter.  Nice move coach.  Don't fix what ain't broken.
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#12
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:57:10 PM
The zone is really frustrating OKC offensively.  They're back to settling for long range jumpers.  I want to see them get back to attacking the rim.  Speed, transition offense, interior penetration.  That's their advantage in this series.
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#13
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:58:38 PM
I just  feel Dallas  matches  well with them and  wont go against Dirk especially  as 3 basket dogs

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#14
Posted: 4/30/2012 11:34:22 PM
C'mon mr. official.  Let em play ball.  Way too many whistles this half.
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#15
Posted: 4/30/2012 11:35:57 PM
darn.  What are they doing taking all these jumpers.  Playing right into Dallas' hands.
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#16
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:20:13 AM
These officials are friggin KILLING ME
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#17
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:27:41 AM
Me too
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#18
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:29:05 AM
Fuckin' pathetic. Where's Durant been? He's literally just standing around.
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#19
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:38:00 AM
9:35 EST - Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-115)  

The Thunder played exactly the type of basketball they should have in the first half.  What happened in the second half?  Not to mention the officials put Dallas in the bonus with 9 minutes left in the third quarter.  Yeah, okay, that seems fair for the road team.  Way too many offensive rebounds for the Mavs too.  Got them 12 more field goal attempts than the Thunder.  Shouldn't have been this close at he end.


'11-12 NBA-P:  1-3 (25.0%)  -2.35u



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