|Only wins over KU, SMU, and SE LA makes TCU hard to side with in this one. They do creeate probs for a Case McCoy led Texas offense. The TCU defense is solid overall, yet 2nd in the conference against the rush...115 ypg and 3.1 ypc. Despite what took place in Dallas against OU, shouldering Case McCoy with the task of winning with his arm is a very bad idea. Even in the OU win while looking his best all season, he threw a pick-6, missed 2 wide-open TD's, and wildly overthrew a crucial defenderless first down toss of 5 yards. I watched the game 3 times, the pressure was not bad enough to airmail the 2 TD's and 1st down misses. Had that game been close, Case would not have done what was needed to win it, leaving 14+ points on the board and handing over an easy 7.
Posted: 10/25/2013 12:43:37 PM
On the opposite side, TCU's strength is rushing although they are middle of the pack in the Big 12. I attribute that to starting a 2nd string QB that is a weak passing threat. Teams were able to play the run most of the time. If Pachall plays in this one, and it looks like he will, the passing game should improve leaps and bounds and create space for TCU runners. Bad news for Texas.
I expect TCU to use their 2 QB's like KSU does...rotate the passer and the runner for different packages and situations. Could be trouble since Boykin runs well (293 yards, 3 TD's) and Pachall was an extremely dangerous passer in 2010 and the 4 games he played in 2011. He's a very efficient and mistake conscious QB over his 26 game career. On 479 attempts he completed 65.8% for 4,122 yards...and an excellent 36 TD / 9 INT ratio.
I expect both teams to play this one close to the vest not wanting to make the crucial game losing mistake. If TCU contains the UT run game, Pachall rotates in with Boykin, and Texas lowers their level of play some like they surely will (not awful, just not rivalry effort)...Texas gets edged out. Don't forget the game is in Fort Worth and been sold out for many months. It's a small stadium and will be extremely loud.
If Texas can establish the run, Case avoids any turnovers resulting in quick points or on Texas' own side of field, and the defense slows down the run (not expecting OU type run stuffing)...Texas slides by closely.
I'm siding with TCU on this one as the addition of Pachall to the passing game, knowing Texas played way above their heads against a sedated OU effort, and the road angle will be huge.
Gonna take 7 points in a tease for padding, too many wildcards. TCU +5.5