Posted: 9/26/2008 11:01:30 AM
As for me, I had mixed results with wins in the 1st quarter (San Antonio) and for the total to go over 141, coupled with an ats loss for San Antonio and a moneyline loss for the same side.
In tonight's action, the under holds a distinct advantage for the Liberty's home games as they have gone under the total an amazing 22 out of their last 30 home games, which is hard to ignore.
New York despite covering an outstanding 10 out of the last 14 times these two teams have played is only a 1.5 point favorite at home. Detroit has had their number this year, but the one game where New York was favored to win they did cover, a 74-64 win in July. Public numbers so far indicate that the public is mixed on this game as New York money has come in to even the scales.
For me, the under the total on this game is the way to go. I like the game to go under the assigned number 144. Detroit has gone under 4 out of their last 6 games, and New York has gone under 8 of their last 10. One spin o n it is that in those games, New York has had totals that average out to 147.5, and Detroit has had totals that have averaged 153.
However, the actual scores for New York in that span were140.5, and Detroit's actual scores in those 6 games averaged 149.5.
144 fits snugly in between those averages. New York cannot run with Detroit nor turn the ball over. Deanna Nolan is one of my favorite players in the WNBA and she is a great finisher. New York runs great sets, and when they rebound the ball offensively they pass it back out and milk the clock, making teams play a full shot clock again. I think that they will come out and jump all over Detroit early and often, with Detroit's depth coming into play in the 2nd half.
As far as the side is concerned, I hate to pay vigorish, so with an even money moneyline, I am taking Detroit for the game. I think that they have the deeper team, and if I lose so what? I will chase bet with Detroit in this series until I get paid, as I firmly believe that they will win this series and advance to the finals.
So my plays for this game are:
New York -.5 1st quarter
Detroit +100 moneyline
Detroit/New York under 144
Good luck to all