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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Kentucky at Florida (03/04/2012)
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#1
Posted: 3/3/2012 2:50:38 AM

Away:  Kentucky [11-17-1 ATS]
Home:  Florida [11-13-1 ATS]

Game Time: 12:00 PM
Stadium: Stephen C. O'Connell Center

Recent Meetings:
02/07/12 - FLA 58 vs. KENTY 78
03/13/11 - KENTY 70 vs. FLA 54
02/26/11 - FLA 68 vs. KENTY 76

Team Leaders:

Kentucky:
Points: Anthony Davis (14.1)
Assists: Marquis Teague (4.7)
Rebounds: Anthony Davis (9.8)

Florida:
Points: Kenny Boynton (17.1)
Assists: Erving Walker (4.7)
Rebounds: Bradley Beal (6.5)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 3/4/2012 1:23:33 AM
Big fan of Tucky, but Fla at home with points? gotta go w/ Fla +4.1/2
May even buy 1/2 point to bring it to 5...........can't see a blow out here, maybe even the under 140.5


Fla +5          u/ 140.5..............lets keep it close
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#3
Posted: 3/4/2012 3:23:22 AM
FL playing at home getting 4 to 5 pts is nothing new. Game and line will be very similar to when UK played at Vandy on 2/11/12. Line was UK -4.5.  I can see this game playing out exactly the same way. BUT REMEMBER THIS IS GAME 2.  = ADVANTAGE TO UK
If this game was game 1 at FL....advantage and +pts to FL.
Game 2, UK knows how FL will play them...and not to mention game 1 was a beatdown, 78-58.   FL has gotten worse since that meeting and UK has gotten better overall.
FL is playing sloppy lately and need a huge home win, but after losing badly to Georgia (team UK just stomped on senior night on Thurs) and to Vandy, FL has to find their identity that has helped them at home early in year and are doing it with a huge disadvantage.
If this game will be set up and possibly played out like I said the Vandy game was...(remember game 2 at opponent UK beat in game 1).....Then UK could even be down by a few points at half but they know how to win the 2nd half. Calipari knows what to say and how to matchup well. Gilchrist will be moved to the best scorer like in the Miss st game he stopped Bost in 2nd half.
 Florida will play differently in this game than in game 1 in Lexington. Like I said, UK will adjust come 2nd half to anything new or something Calipari doesnt like. There has not been many games where UK has lost the 2nd half.

UK -4  is my play.  . 1st half I see slower pace, closer game. 2nd half UK will expose FL's lack of inside presence (since UK will not allow FL to shoot the 3 as much FL will want to).

going by the stats these are what i like...
  • Under is 10-1-1 in KENTY last 12 road games.
  • KENTY are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sun. games.
  • KENTY are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall
  • Under is 7-1 in FLA last 8 Sun. games.

  • I can see this game being 72-52 72-62 72-68  in all cases, the under is likely.  UK will not allow a fast pace late in 2nd half.
     

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    #4
    Posted: 3/4/2012 8:24:57 AM
    Great info and write-up.I was leaning UK but now I'm sure.Thanx again   
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    #5
    Posted: 3/4/2012 9:58:24 AM
    "Tucky"?  In over 45 years of watching college hoops that is a new one on me...Fla bites, UK all day.  I wouldn't touch the total here, Fla can get hot from outside and Kentucky can score on anybody.  GLA
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    #6
    Posted: 3/4/2012 10:46:40 AM

    KENTUCKY ML   

     

    FLORIDA + 7     TRY TO MIDDLE   GL 10EA

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    #7
    Posted: 3/4/2012 11:19:18 AM
    kentuky
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    #8
    Posted: 3/4/2012 11:22:34 AM

    Here's how I see the SEC:

    1 Great team: Kentucky
    3 Good teams: Vanderbilt, Florida, & Tennessee (TN playing better now that they can focus on the game)
    8 Ugly teams: The rest of the SEC, (AL has GREAT D that really slows the game down, but in return can't keep up offensively, you gotta have Offense to be successful, Defense can only win you so many games)

    Florida Home Conference Games

    Tue Jan 10 Georgia  W, 70-48 - Georgia Sucks on both sides of the ball and yet LOST to GA playing away LAST WEEKEND, this one is a little far fetched, but Georgia = Florida
    Sat Jan 21 Louisiana St. W, 76-64 - Offense Sucks
    Sat Jan 28 Mississippi St W, 69-57 - Awesome, Awesome Offense, but HORRIBLE defense
    Thu Feb 2 South Carolina W, 74-66 - Really?! Only beat the 2-14 in conference Gamecocks by 8 AT HOME?!
    Sat Feb 4  Vanderbilt  W, 73-65 - Split 2-game Home/Away series, Vanderbilt = Florida
    Sat Feb 11 Tennessee  L, 75-70 - Lost to Tennessee both at home and away, Tennessee > Florida
    Tue Feb 21 Auburn  W, 63-47 - Worst Offense in SEC


    Kentucky Away Conference Schedule:
     
    Wed Jan 11 150 Auburn  W, 68-53 
    Sat Jan 14 Tennessee  W, 65-62 - Swept 2-game Home/Away series this year while Florida LOST BOTH
    Tue Jan 24 Georgia  W, 57-44 - Swept 2-game Home/Away series this year while Florida SPLIT
    Sat Jan 28 Louisiana St. W, 74-50
    Sat Feb 4 South Carolina W, 86-52 - Pummeled the Conference's Worst Gamecocks by 34 ON THE ROAD, while Florida won by 8 AT HOME
    Sat Feb 11 Vanderbilt  W, 69-63 - Swept 2-game Home/Away series this year while Florida split
    Tue Feb 21 Mississippi St. W, 73-64


    Conference Stats Broken Down:

    Kentucky Offense:
    Eff. FG%:  1st 54.8
    Turnover %:  1st 15.4     
    Off. Reb. %:  2nd 36.7   
    3P%:   2nd 41.3   
    2P%:   1st 52.1   
    FT%:   2nd 74.3

    Kentucky Defense:
    Eff. FG%:  1st 43.0
    3P%:   4th 32.7
    2P%:   1st 40.5
    Block%:  1st 21.1

    John Calipari is a fricken genious for what he was able to teach these kids. To have such a team that is so proficient on both sides is the ball, is unbelievable.  And I love that Calipari focuses directly on just straight, good defense.  He doesn't push them to gamble for steals or push for the TOs, but focus strictly on guarding your man and seeing the whole court. I don't understand how they can mix so much focus with the ascpect of fun also, but they do it well. And when I say "boys" I mean it.  To train 3 freshman and 2 sophmores with the Senior Darius Miller on and off the court, is just amazing. Ok, Ok, enough of the praising and back to the good stuff.

    The Kentucky Defense is also extremely smart in their play. They are tops in the league at fouling and not allowing opponents to get to the line. And when opponents Don't get to the line, they have to climb over a team that holds their opponents to 40.5% in 2-pt shots and 32.7% in 3's?!?!

    Bottom line here is that Kentucky has the #1 Offense and the #1 Defense in the SEC.

    Florida Offense:
    Eff. FG%:  3rd 52.8 
    Turnover %:  3rd 17.8
    Off. Reb. %:  8th 32.1
    3P%:   4th 36.8
    2P%:   2nd 50.9
    FT%:   1st 75.5

    Florida Defense:
    Eff. FG%:  9th 50.6
    3P%:   12  39.6 ****last in conference
    2P%:   7th 46.2
    Block%:  11th 9.2

    ----------------------------------

    Here's what I see between these two teams:

    Kentucky swept both Tennessee and Vanderbilt who have BETTER DEFENSES than Florida.  Florida is offensively minded and are going to have to do just that to win or cover this game,...and guess what, their defense is not going to make their offensive job any easier.  Florida allows 39.6% shooting behind the arc.  THAT IS HORRIBLE!  Couple that together with a Kentucky that hits a super-high 3P% of 41.3% and it's a green light for Kentucky's Doron Lamb (48.4% 3-pt shooting!) and Darius Miller (39.5%), with the supporting role of Kyle Wiltjer (plays less than half of the minutes) who hits over 40% of his 3's. Expect Kentucky to get their 3-balls in the game while Florida has a tough time getting theirs.  Florida hits 36.8% in 3's while Kentucky holds their opponents to 32.7%.

    Though Florida is a good free-throw shooting team, I just don't see them getting to the line here much at all.  Kentucky prides themselves on playing smart defense and makes them take bad shots.  They seldom make stupid and unnecessary fouls.

    Kentucky holds opps to 40.5% from within the arc and much of that is because of Anthony Davis.  Kentucky gets 8.5 blocks per game in conference and Anthony Davis is pretty much all of that stat,...with Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist getting at least a piece of that pie.  Anthony Davis hits 68.5% of his 2-Pointers due to his dominance by the hoop.

    The thing that stands out in their previous match-up is Florida went 6 of 27 from behind the arc and shot 34.9 percent overall from the field.  6 of 27 is not great for a team that lives and dies by them.  In point distribution of 3's, 2's, and FT's, Florida has the 4th biggest portion of their points coming from the 3-ball.

    This is not a good team vs a good team.  It's a Great team vs a live-or-die-by-the-3 team with a bad defense,..and home-court can only help you so much.

    Kentucky Wildcats -5

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    #9
    Posted: 3/4/2012 11:30:00 AM
    I LOVE Florida here. What does Kentucky hacve to play for? #1 seed in teh nation? Who cares> They have teh SEC title locked up, and will have a #1 seed in teh tournament. Florida, on the otehr hand, has to win to improve its tournament seeding. Dropped their last two and getting points at home. Perhaps they lost the last two becuase they were focusing too much on the last game of the season.......
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    #10
    Posted: 3/4/2012 11:45:48 AM
    QUOTE

    Originally Posted by CleeK111:

    KENTY are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sun. games.

  • Under is 7-1 in FLA last 8 Sun. games. 

  • Really? Are you F-in serious?!?!  Quit cutting and pasting stupid fricken trends like that without understanding them.  Really?!?! Sunday games?  Is it because they hold hands, go to church, and pray on Sundays?!?!

    Fricken look into stats and trends man, that is the most moronic thing I've heard all month on this forum.

    Do you understand that THIS TEAM of 2012 has only played ONE fricken Sunday game this year?

    Then THREE in 2011, TWO in 2010, THREE in 2009 and only ONE in 2008?!?!

    Lazy fricken people just look at a trend and go with it.

    Best of Luck betting you Sabboth Day Trends

    Sorry, man, It just pisses me off that people are not only are just fricken LAZY when they cap games, but THEN they post that crap like it means something.

    Sorry again man, I'm just venting out of the idea stupidity.

     

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    jo14014
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    #11
    Posted: 3/4/2012 11:48:08 AM
    ............77-65
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    #12
    Posted: 3/4/2012 12:20:22 PM
    QUOTE Originally Posted by TexasD:

    Really? Are you F-in serious?!?!  Quit cutting and pasting stupid fricken trends like that without understanding them.  Really?!?! Sunday games?  Is it because they hold hands, go to church, and pray on Sundays?!?!

    Fricken look into stats and trends man, that is the most moronic thing I've heard all month on this forum.

    Do you understand that THIS TEAM of 2012 has only played ONE fricken Sunday game this year?

    Then THREE in 2011, TWO in 2010, THREE in 2009 and only ONE in 2008?!?!

    Lazy fricken people just look at a trend and go with it.

    Best of Luck betting you Sabboth Day Trends

    Sorry, man, It just pisses me off that people are not only are just fricken LAZY when they cap games, but THEN they post that crap like it means something.

    Sorry again man, I'm just venting out of the idea stupidity.

     



    Why stoop that low to insult someone you do not know?  Yes I do know about the one game UK played this year on a Sunday and to be honest they did not cover the -19.5 spread....but again who has coached those 3 years you are referring to? Calipari.  Yes maybe different core group of players, but he runs same offense and knows FL just as well 6 meetings, 1 loss with his worst team last year. The fact I included the Sunday trend is simply because of scheduling...it has more to do with routine than it does covering. UK has not had many Thurs then Sat games this season, nor has FL. If it was Thurs and Sat game at FL I would say the short turnaround would not help UK...but the extra day does help.
    Again do not reply in a thread where people are looking for info and insult someone, just go vent into a mirror and not online, it does not help anyone at all as we all have the same motivation for coming here in the first place.
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    #13
    Posted: 3/4/2012 12:30:49 PM
    Again, I'm sorry for ranting and raving.  I hear that kind of stuff and see NO RELEVANCE to THIS GAME AT ALL....but....I guess that is just MY OPINION.  Yes, should I try to respect other's opinions, input, and analysis,....sure, but it's damn hard to when I see such stats that go back to half a decade ago.  I understand your Calipari reference, but as an analogy I wouldn't say a Chef could make the same dish every Thanksgiving Thursday if he didn't have the right ingredients every time. Different recipe everytime.
     
    That's may be my opinion....but sometimes hearing other people's opinions can help us to better make our own.
     
    Best of Luck brother, We're on the same side
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    #14
    Posted: 3/4/2012 12:34:55 PM
    Ha, Florida fans keep chanting DEFENSE!  Good luck wasting your breath on that one, male cheerleaders. I invite these Florida male cheerleaders to run on the court, grab the ball and toss it up in the air at ANY point in time during the game...you don't have to wait until the last second of the game.
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