HANDICAPPING THE NFL IN 10 MINUTES A WEEK

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: HANDICAPPING THE NFL IN 10 MINUTES A WEEK
kevnbs PM kevnbs
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Posted: 8/16/2010 1:24:00 AM
Take this for what it is worth. These are 3 approaches I use that take less than 10 minutes a week. Included are the results for the last 5 seasons. The numbers aren't exciting but they have shown a profit each of the last 5 seasons, albeit small, but still a profit. These are for the less serious bettor who wants action but doesn't want ot do the work. Then again, even this might be to much work for some.

Betting Totals

Rule 1. Bet over any total of 37 or less, bet under any total of 51 or higher.
Rule 2. Don't start until week 4.

2005  34-22
2006  29-24
2007  28-19
2008  17-14
2009  15-11

Blowouts

Rule 1. If any team lost 14 points or more ATS (against the spread), bet them the following week. If two teams are facing each other that both got blown out, pass.

Example. If STL was +10 and they lost 38-10 they would be a play as the difference ATS is 18. If they lost 38-17 it would be no play as the ATS difference is only 11.

2005  28-26
2006  34-21
2007  39-26
2008  36-24
2009  28-26


The Chase

Rule 1. Chase any team for 3 games ATS if they have lost there last 2 both straight up and ATS.

2005  26-21
2006  26-0
2007  33-28
2008  25-0
2009  30-7

You'll notice all the total losses are divided by 7. That's because a failed chase is 7 units.

That's it. Before anyone accuses me of stealing these, they are 100% right, I stole all of them. I will say though that by combining all 3 you have minimal work to do and would've made a profit each season.

That said, criticize at will.

Just so you know I posted this as kind of a payment back to this forum. I've used the things I've learned here to create some truly profitable approaches to sports betting and have met people that I now follow that make me money each and every year.

Before anyone else can say it though, I suck and my approaches suck.


Thx

Big
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 8/16/2010 10:02:39 AM

Thanks for posting this, kevnbs!
I've been looking for ideas for this season.


GL  


6figure PM 6figure
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Posted: 8/16/2010 11:21:33 AM
thanks man!  
Wizerguy PM Wizerguy
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Posted: 8/19/2010 11:37:32 PM

Nice

Firebird27 PM Firebird27
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Posted: 9/8/2010 12:19:59 AM
Snappa PM Snappa
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Posted: 9/9/2010 11:14:22 AM
Thanks,Kev.  You are the Rachel Ray of NFL handicapping.  But  seriously, I like these three methods.  You can use them as a solid foundation in the handicapping process, and IF you have more time, you can tweak the variables.  The chase strategy you posted is a variation of a JM chase(or maybe JM's chase is a variation of your chase).  At any rate it works.  Of course, any method or system you use requires a strong emphasis on money management.  That is, if you are doing it to make MONEY.  Anyway, GL and thanks for this post.


PeterPoker PM PeterPoker
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Posted: 9/10/2010 10:47:19 PM
Any shared idea is worth more than none.

GL 
t3003 PM t3003
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Posted: 9/11/2010 12:53:30 AM
Rule 1. Chase any team for 3 games ATS if they have lost there last 2 both straight up and ATS.

Are the records accurate?  I just checked last season for the chase.  These teams lost the chase.

chicago, det, giants, tenn,
metslider PM metslider
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Posted: 9/14/2010 11:15:19 AM
So for the blowouts play it looks like Oak and SF would be the bets this week
Firebird27 PM Firebird27
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Posted: 9/14/2010 12:41:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by t3003:

Rule 1. Chase any team for 3 games ATS if they have lost there last 2 both straight up and ATS.

Are the records accurate?  I just checked last season for the chase.  These teams lost the chase.

chicago, det, giants, tenn,


I wouldn't start the 3 game chase until a team has 3 SU and ATS.  If a team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, do not chase.  I have back tested this formula to 2006 and it has hit 100% as long as you are disciplined to play it all the way to the third game.  Lastly, take the points on underdog plays and bet the ML on favorites.  Don't worry, there will be very few plays with favorites.
Jokeheads PM Jokeheads
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Posted: 9/14/2010 10:39:17 PM
Maybe this is a weird question, but I'm more or less a newb. Where can I go to find old lines (if I wanted to back test this myself, say...or check up on last weeks spreads...etc)
metslider PM metslider
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Posted: 9/21/2010 7:53:45 AM
Oak and SF were the blowout picks.  went 1-1 prob should have been 2-0

Blowout picks this week would be
BUF
JAX
CAR
AZ
DAL
metslider PM metslider
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Posted: 9/21/2010 1:21:02 PM
Sorry no BUF as NE lost by more than 14 ATS
bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 9/21/2010 9:47:59 PM
but buffalo  is a chase. lost  su and ats first two weeks. 
redz PM redz
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Posted: 10/4/2010 7:57:11 AM

Week #4 NFL - 2 L SU & 2 L ATS

Carolina (2 units) 

Jax (1 unit)

NYG (1 unit)

Wash (1 unit)

 

 

georgiadog PM georgiadog
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Posted: 10/4/2010 10:39:00 AM
The rules seem to be solid since you would be betting against the public most of the time. good work kevnbs
Snappa PM Snappa
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Posted: 10/4/2010 11:18:31 AM
Nice Quintella! Thanks, Kev!
ApacheM PM ApacheM
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Posted: 10/4/2010 4:41:57 PM
 Looks as though your system has merit. Let be be the 1st to warn you guys. with 45yrs of bettin' football under my belt, leave the O/U's alone. There is no rime or reason to them, you might as well flip a coin.
kevnbs PM kevnbs
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Posted: 10/5/2010 2:07:38 PM
Just a post week 4 update.

Totals     2-1
Blowouts   7-5


Haven't had a chance to get my chase numbers together yet.
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