Posted: 9/29/2011 9:07:32 AM
1. Your goal is to make 10% of your bankroll per WEEK. I thought long and hard to write something intelligent here, but I doubt you will listen anyway - so here is the only thing I can come up with taht maybe you will listen to - you are a moron.
Your goal is to make 500% on your money in a year. Jeesh. Listen to yourself.
If I take your avg stated unit of say $50, at a 60% capper (which you are not), and standard juice, you would have to make 30 wagers per week. More realistically, if you are a 54% capper, it would take 120 wagers.
2. The only books an American should bet at are 5dimes and Bookmaker. Period. And even those could go under at any time on any day.
3. Transaction costs. To get a 250 weekly check will cost you 40 bucks on avg. Buld taht in to your cost model.
4. Last but not least, your idea of a chase system. Look - you might be able to fool yourself, or other people - but you cant fool math. Here is the one thing you need to read again and again - THERE IS NO MATHEMATICAL EDGE OR DISADVANTAGE TO A CHASE SYSTEM. Read it again.
Every game is an individual event. The size of you wager has no affect on the result of that event. It is independent.
The downside to a chase system is that most people go broke because of the exponential nature of the wager size, so they either run out of bankroll or hit book limits.
People who tell you that chase systems work, or bookies fear chase systems - are either as dumb as you or have an alterior motive.
Now - before you get offended with all of this - just prove me wrong. Tell me why a bookie would fear any chase system - or why you somehow get a mathematical edge from doing it.
The only good thing about your whole plan is a ridiculously low investment, and that you will only lose 3k. You are very naive - to the point of laughable - but in the context of the average covers poster I would say Im not surprised.
I will be watching this system closely.