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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Do bookie's lose money?
gambler66 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bodog |
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#101
Posted: 7/22/2011 6:01:09 PM
I did it for 20 years until the police got to me but I had a long run if you do it right and don't get greedy and sometimes move money so 1 game don't backrupt you.   Doc sports releases his play of the year the $ moves and he bets the otherside look at the last 10 years of his play of the year and how much the line moves.  he can middle it or bet other side when it moves a touchdown.  Come on the  Handicappers give plays they want to middle.  I was in the industry came in 10th in college football.  1995  Overlay Sports.  That's how we made all of our $  Studying and handicapp.
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#102
Posted: 7/24/2011 6:57:29 PM

you got busted? get in a lot of trouble? thats why i dont want to start anything like that

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#103
Posted: 8/5/2011 9:22:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RantinRave:

This is all hypothetical of course..

A person loses a lot of money to online sports books and this person's local guy. He then decides to take action from close friends and some others. In four weeks he gets cleaned out for 4k. Usually a bad weekend would be -500. He's doing everything "correctly" (i.e. charging 10 cents on the dollar, taking straight wagers only, game and halftime lines, etc.)

What would you do?
A. Stop
B. Continue
C. Other

PS - 50% are known degen's. The other 50% never wagered on a game in their entire life.
The book never loose in long run...period..lol
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#104
Posted: 6/17/2012 7:42:49 PM
I can relate.

In 2012 I've been missing my parlays by 1 freaking every single day. 3-1, 4-1, 2-1, 5-1, ALL THE TIME.

Today for example the absolute worst possible outcome.

2-team parlay 1pm games 
4-team parlay, the 1pm games + two 4pm games.

1-1 on 2 teamer. Remake a 3-teamer with the original games and another one. Win both original games, lose the added game.

I started taking some action a while ago. And in those 2 months I got cleaned out for more money than I had ever lost in any given year as a player. This one guy just. Does. Not. Miss. He hit 7 in a row all parlayed, hit two other 4-team parlays (got lucky as garbage in each game).

I must be the unluckiest gambler on the planet.
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#105
Posted: 6/18/2012 12:13:16 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NIPSZ:

Bookies have been losing consistently over the last year.  It is a set up by Vegas to stimulate the economy!  It is the truth, trust me, I know!  I have lost $25K over the last year booking five players total.  It is non-stop.  Vegas is trying to get players to advertise their winnings and sports books are getting more players signed up.  It is working, now is the best time ever to be a player in the history of sports wagering.  Guaranteed!  Watch the comments that roll in after this post.  The bookies will second the notion.  To gambler66, be glad you quit while you were ahead. 

i know last year was a nightmare, favorites, 1h and game and the over hit 90% on big games, if not game and over at least. Players made huge money last year.

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#106
Posted: 6/18/2012 1:53:07 AM
I second the comment by NIPSZ. Last year was ORGASMIC for players, especially in college football. I had the run of my life. Won back everything I lost in the previous 11 years in parlays and that much more!

Then I got cleaned out as a bookie. I was like an ATM that he kept taking money from. The only reason I am still alive is because of his stupid bets. 
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#107
Posted: 6/18/2012 12:12:38 PM

hang in there buddy, think of it as a long term investment, you will definitely lose some battles but ultimately you will win the war.

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#108
Posted: 6/19/2012 8:32:51 PM
there are a gazzillion bookies who "aren't in the business anymore" silly question.
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#109
Posted: 6/20/2012 10:39:36 AM
You cannot be a "local" without being tied into other entities. You will have to make some unholy alliances along the way. Bookmaking sounds romantic but it is hard work and is incompatible with most family type activities unless you are part of another " family".
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#110
Posted: 6/22/2012 12:10:18 PM
Patience and Discipline
by bettingresource.com

Patience and discipline are the two most important things you need to have in order to find the edge and succeed in sports betting. Yes, these two are more important than money management itself because, without patience and discipline you wouldn't be able to successfully employ an efficient money management plan. In sports betting, having patience and discipline is a special ability--if you cannot master this special ability you will never find the edge. It may seem easy but mastering this ability is very difficult, it is as hard as climbing a slippery and almost vertical hill; you can lose control and slip anytime. For most bettors it is virtually impossible to maintain patience and discipline in the long run. They might do everything perfectly for 1 week, 1 month or even a year but eventually they will momentarily lose that special ability and that moment is enough to destroy the bankroll.

Most bettors begin with a short bankroll, perhaps a few hundred dollars. Often bettors who load their sportsbook with short bankroll find it impossible to maintain patience and discipline in a consistent basis because they will get bored of using proper money management on such small amount. As a result they will lose their bankroll frequently and re-load numerous times to accumulate losses. These bettors turn few hundred dollar losses into few thousand dollars in a matter of few weeks while dreaming of turning few hundred dollars into few thousand dollars of profit! Without patience and discipline your dream will never come true. If you fall into this category of bettors, we highly recommend that you wait patiently and collect these deposits without any action till you get a reasonable ($1000 minimum) bankroll.

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#111
Posted: 6/23/2012 10:18:02 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by lightsout2184]

completely wrong. "knew a guy who ran a book for 3 years" lol never wanted to just win 10 percent. The action is never even and thats a good thing. You will always come out ahead in the long run. Last couple weeks have been bad. A lot of public plays hitting like crazy. Vegas knows what they are doing just watch they will go on some bad runs.

 

No dude, you're completely wrong and Chadnailz6 is right. I know, I've been working in the gaming industry in Nevada for the last 26 years and counting. When the book puts out their lines, either money lines or point spread, they don't put up a number that they think the outcome will be,but they put up numbers that they think the public will bet both sides of, and then they make their money off of the vigorish on the losing bets. Casinos don't like to gamble. Las Vegas wasn't built by giving away money.

 

WHERE THE BOOKS MAKE THE REAL $$$

 

The book makes the majority of their income off of football parlay cards. On these bets, the book holds AT LEAST 37.5% advantage over the player, or more. And the reason being is because of the odds the card pays out.

 

EXAMPLE: Suppose you bet a 5-team parlay. The odds the book pays out on a 5-team parlay is 20 to 1. However, the odds of hitting a 5-team parlay is 32 to 1. The 32 to 1 is figured by adding up every possible betting combinations of the 5 teams, 32 different combinations. Now, as Chadnailz6 pointed out, since the book has so much action, every possible combination of that ticket will be played, and out of those 32 tickets, only 1 ticket will win. So the book returns the 1 unit bet to the winner, PLUS 20 additional units for winning. Now, out of the 32 tickets for that particular 5-team parlay, the book is down 21 units, 1 unit for the winning bet, and 20 units for the winning payoff. Now that leaves the book with 11 units left over. That's called PROFIT. In gaming, it doesn't matter how much money is spent, everything is calculated by the unit. Regardless if someone's betting $1 or $100,000, the book's PC (percentage) will always remain the same. So if the book holds at least 37.5% advantage over the bettor, that means for every hundred dollars the book takes in, they are GUARENTEED to make $37.50. The odds get worse for the bettor with more teams bet.

 

It's not a big industry secret or anything like that, it just comes down to simple odds. That's the truth. I know a lot of people won't believe me, but that's the way it is. And for those people who don't believe what I say, well, let's just say, Las Vegas loves you.

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#112
Posted: 6/24/2012 8:10:28 AM
^^^ Of course if a book pays out 20 to 1 on a 5 team parlay they will clean up. Most books nowadays pay fair odds, ie: for a 5-team parlay, it's 24.36 to 1. And with the bonus that some books offer, that reduces the effective juice to -104 per game!

That's right. They're basically telling you "Bet on 5 games and the juice will be a 'wholesale' -104 instead of -110" !

Now if I'm a book and I got $1000 action on Team A and $1500 action on Team B.

If Team A wins, I pay out $909.09 and collect $1500 = +$590.91

If Team B wins, I pay out $1363.64 and collec $1000 = -$363.64

Assuming both sides were -110 to begin with. I am effectively risking $363.64 to win $590.91, or getting +162 on Team A to win!!!

The bigger the book edge, the smaller the stake amount, the smaller the book edge, the bigger the stake amount.

For example, if I have $100 of action on Team A and $100000 action on Team B, I obv want team A to win because a lot is at stake, even though I am getting a little over +110.

If the action is even, my edge is infinite simply because my risk is zero. A thousand dollars on both sides of the game guarantees me $91 or profit regardless of who wins.
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#113
Posted: 6/24/2012 11:19:20 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by eddothebook:

^^^ Of course if a book pays out 20 to 1 on a 5 team parlay they will clean up. Most books nowadays pay fair odds, ie: for a 5-team parlay, it's 24.36 to 1. And with the bonus that some books offer, that reduces the effective juice to -104 per game!

That's right. They're basically telling you "Bet on 5 games and the juice will be a 'wholesale' -104 instead of -110" !

Now if I'm a book and I got $1000 action on Team A and $1500 action on Team B.

If Team A wins, I pay out $909.09 and collect $1500 = +$590.91

If Team B wins, I pay out $1363.64 and collec $1000 = -$363.64

Assuming both sides were -110 to begin with. I am effectively risking $363.64 to win $590.91, or getting +162 on Team A to win!!!

The bigger the book edge, the smaller the stake amount, the smaller the book edge, the bigger the stake amount.

For example, if I have $100 of action on Team A and $100000 action on Team B, I obv want team A to win because a lot is at stake, even though I am getting a little over +110.

If the action is even, my edge is infinite simply because my risk is zero. A thousand dollars on both sides of the game guarantees me $91 or profit regardless of who wins.

 

What are the "fair odds" you talk about? And why is it 24.36 to 1 on a 5-team parlay?

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#114
Posted: 6/24/2012 11:39:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ovrundr:

 

What are the "fair odds" you talk about? And why is it 24.36 to 1 on a 5-team parlay?



A parlay is an "accumulator". If you were to risk $100 on one game, won and risked the entire proceeds ($190.90) on the second game, on the second game you would win $173.54, for a total of $364.44, or a $264.64 profit (fair odds = 2.644x).

A 5-team parlay at -110 each game would be [(((1/1.1)+1)^5) - 1] times your stake. If you bought a point in one of the games, your payout would be adjusted, say ((1/1.1)+1)*((1/1.1)+1)*((1/1.2)+1)*....(etc).

Fair odds is simply odds you'd get as if you ran each game into the next all in.

Pinnacle sports offers 5c lines but not on parlays. But if your games start at different times, you may take the -105 lines and go "all in" from one game to the next to have the same result as a normal parlay. If you feel like "hedging" your last leg, simply bet a little less than all in on the last game. That way you save juice and benefit from the reduced juice
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#115
Posted: 6/24/2012 1:59:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by eddothebook:



A parlay is an "accumulator". If you were to risk $100 on one game, won and risked the entire proceeds ($190.90) on the second game, on the second game you would win $173.54, for a total of $364.44, or a $264.64 profit (fair odds = 2.644x).

A 5-team parlay at -110 each game would be [(((1/1.1)+1)^5) - 1] times your stake. If you bought a point in one of the games, your payout would be adjusted, say ((1/1.1)+1)*((1/1.1)+1)*((1/1.2)+1)*....(etc).

Fair odds is simply odds you'd get as if you ran each game into the next all in.

Pinnacle sports offers 5c lines but not on parlays. But if your games start at different times, you may take the -105 lines and go "all in" from one game to the next to have the same result as a normal parlay. If you feel like "hedging" your last leg, simply bet a little less than all in on the last game. That way you save juice and benefit from the reduced juice

 

 I understand your concept of "fair odds", which is laying 110(-110) on a bet and parlaying it 5 times at the price of -110.

 Laying -110, or -120, or any amount for that matter is the juice, which pretains to something totally different than the thread I was commenting on. And that is just the odds of the outcome of a certain event based on the number of possible combinations for that event.

EXAMPLE: Two baseball teams are playing each other. Now what are the odds of ANY of those teams winning AND the total of the game goes over(or you can use 'under' too)? Well, here's EVERY possible scenario of what could happen(provided that one team eventually wins and the total is not a push)...

 

#1) Team A wins, goes Over

#2) Team A wins, goes Under

#3) Team B win, goes Over

#4) Team B wins, goes Under

 

With that said, there are four different possibilities, and only one winning pick. So you have 3 losers and 1 winner. So, your odds of picking the correct one is 1 IN 4, which equates to 3 TO 1. Those are the odds I was talking about, not in a betting standard, but just the odds of something happening, AND THEN apply it to betting strategies, especially when it comes to finding values in overlays and underlays.

 

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#116
Posted: 7/4/2012 7:52:36 AM
I came up with is a system where if you bet the same game (teams and over/under) you are GUARANTEED to win 3 out of 4 outcomes.

The wins are:
Win 1 $30
Win 2 $40
Win 3 $90

But, if you lose, you pay $225.  Is this something worth trying?      
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#117
Posted: 7/4/2012 12:33:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tadlodz:

I came up with is a system where if you bet the same game (teams and over/under) you are GUARANTEED to win 3 out of 4 outcomes.

The wins are:
Win 1 $30
Win 2 $40
Win 3 $90

But, if you lose, you pay $225.  Is this something worth trying?      


No. You are basically doing what I like to call an "anti-parlay". Your odds of winning are good but the risk/reward is garbage.

It's like someone else making a parlay against YOU, the bookie.

Whenever a player makes a 4-team parlay against me, I am always sweating bullets because the payout is so big compared to what I can win, even tho I only need 1 out of those 4 to lose.

They usually lose but sometimes they win, wiping out several week's (or months) losses in one shot.
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#118
Posted: 7/4/2012 10:27:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eddothebook:



No. You are basically doing what I like to call an "anti-parlay". Your odds of winning are good but the risk/reward is garbage.

It's like someone else making a parlay against YOU, the bookie.

Whenever a player makes a 4-team parlay against me, I am always sweating bullets because the payout is so big compared to what I can win, even tho I only need 1 out of those 4 to lose.

They usually lose but sometimes they win, wiping out several week's (or months) losses in one shot.

Thank you - Let me think about this...
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#119
Posted: 7/5/2012 10:45:25 PM
^ Vegas also lost a ton when Eli Manning and the Giants beat the 18-0 Patriots (-13.5) outright !!!! Vegas got killed, who wouldn't take the +13 in that???
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#120
Posted: 7/5/2012 10:53:25 PM
A bookie has to be able to sustain a massive beating once in a while. I was just talking to my guy on settle up day a few weeks ago (hardly see him, since our number is 1G, and I'm a 100/per game better) and he said he took on two new guys who have been running his whole book.

He decided to take them on as they were forwarded from a friend, so he gave them both 2500 limits and off they went - betting 400 bucks on baseball games the first day (betting EVERY single phillies game as well) and the first week they lost 2,000. He texted them, went over to collect and talked to the guy for a few minutes. They guy said he is a "big bettor" and there will be more "heavy action" coming in.

Week 2 the team (they had a technique - they would both bet the same plays, except one guy would bet it big (400) while the other small (100) and after week 2 they won 9,000 (profit of +7,000 after 2 weeks)! 

My bookie was overall calm about getting slammed, its part of the game. He had to take 20 grand on the chin one time, but managed to win it all back because where I live you have idiots that bet the Eagles no matter what (even with shitty lines, like -8 on the road) and he can count on enough of their action to right the ship.

If you cant sustain losses you gotta get out. Most bookies take a beating over 1-2 weekends in college football and it's all over for them. Eventually you'll win, just got to weather the storm though.
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#121
Posted: 7/6/2012 2:26:10 AM
rated91: As a player, I am up big time betting on sports. I also have countless parlays that went 4-1, 3-1, 5-1, etc with the last game taking a horrendous improbable beat.

I also do not personally know a single friggin bettor who is not killing the books. Long term or short term.

One of my earliest posts were about this subject, how back in my college days when I used to book small time action, not only did the kids laying action against me kept winning, they kept on winning BIG and PROGRESSIVELY. Turning a $50 deposit into a coupld of G's, then betting $500 a game and not missing until the SuperBowl, hitting and running.

My current guy who just took me out in the NBA playoffs for more money than I had lost on ANY of my losing years from 1998 to 2010 (had 2 winning years but they were big). And now he just slammed me hard hitting a 4-teamer and 2-teamer baseball parlay, cashed out every last penny and "taking a break".
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#122
Posted: 7/9/2012 7:33:37 PM
I personally know very few players that are up BIG on the books. It is not THAT easy to hit parlays and teasers. From what I understand, books love people who bet those. The one winner that I am close friends with usually only make SINGLE bets. But for every "smart" bettor like him, there are probably 10 that bets haphazardly. I know many people who bet $500 on games regularly but do not really know the sport that well or all the players stats. They just bet for the thrill of the action! And in the end these guys loses on a weekly basis. Hell, even if you KNOW your stats, it's NOT THAT EASY to win. 

Books that I bet with usually would call out unbalanced action to bigger books so that they will not get burned by an 85%-15% type imbalance. 
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#123
Posted: 7/9/2012 11:56:47 PM
This weekend I took a 56-unit swing as I had a 2-game parlay, 4-game parlay and 5-game parlay and went 4-1 overall. The losing game was one of the games in the 2-teamer and common in all 3-parlays.

I had the Over 9 in the baseball game and it went something like this:

Bottom 7th the score is 6-1, runner on 3rd 1 out.
Miguel Cabrera strikes out. Next batter walks.

Now runners at the corners 2 outs.
WILD PITCH, the runner from 3rd gets thrown out at home!

The score is still 6-1 and we go to the bottom of the 8th inning:

The innings starts off with: SINGLE - SINGLE - DOUBLE.

Mind you the double did not score the runner from 1st.
So it is 7-1 now with the runners on 2nd & 3rd NOBODY OUT.

I need one run to push my bet, 2 runs to win it. Any hit pretty much wins it but even without any hits I can win it.

Guess what. NO RUNS SCORE.

It ended up with the Bases Loaded 2 outs, full count and the batter swinging at a pitch in the dirt!!!

That was a 56-unit swing! I could not imagine a worst possible beat in baseball.

But guess what, I make a 3-team parlay in the afternoon games and guess how I did...

...

......

......

......

......

......

......

2-friggin-1
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#124
Posted: 7/9/2012 11:58:13 PM
Did I also mention that it was 6-1 after 5 innings?
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#125
Posted: 7/11/2012 6:09:30 PM
I am a local book in Miami well the year went great and made alot of $ during the year ,then Nba playoffs came around and since everyone was a fan of the Heat i lost over 100 grand...Everyone says lay it off ,but the problem I run into trusting in someone to get paid on large wagers if u pay when u lose and don't collect when u win thats not a good way to make money..Online is an option but then u have to put up front the large wager and they hold ur money for weeks and charge you to collect your own money... Bottom line is u just have to have a big enough bankroll to overcome the bad beats ,just like at the poker table.....
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