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[NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Wednesday |
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kaponofor3 |
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#301 Posted: 2/9/2012 9:16:59 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by smartbets: Like I said, 9 out of 10 times, this bet cashes.As for everyone who tried to call me out, tell me it was a losing bet, tell me I lost all my cred.....well how did that work out for you?1-0 +1.0Season 54-29 +84.29
Humility will go a long way Mr. smartbets
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Glock_II |
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#302 Posted: 2/9/2012 9:50:58 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by smartbets: This was just brought to my attention. While kapono and skillz were degrading me I did say this play would win 90 out of 100 times. Final Score Spurs 100 76ers 90 
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NoFumbles |
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#303 Posted: 2/9/2012 9:58:50 AM
That means in the previous month since the NBA has started, 25th December until 27th January, you had a total of 75 plays? That is more that two plays per day and now only 1 play for every 2 days?
Just find this extremly strange. Why the sudden change? |
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3DTV |
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#304 Posted: 2/9/2012 10:49:29 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by NoFumbles: Quick question: As I was trying to find all your picks to see how you are picking your games, I found that since 27 January until today you have posted a total of 7 picks. That is 7 picks in 14 days.
That means in the previous month since the NBA has started, 25th December until 27th January, you had a total of 75 plays? That is more that two plays per day and now only 1 play for every 2 days?
Just find this extremly strange. Why the sudden change?
He counts his live plays too. That tends to be 2 or more picks on a single game and tend to get posted within his threads.
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NoFumbles |
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#305 Posted: 2/9/2012 11:07:36 AM |
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royboymiami |
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#306 Posted: 2/9/2012 11:28:30 AM HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA SMART BETS !!!!!!
GOOD F'IN JOB MATE! |
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dtortorice0217 |
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#307 Posted: 2/9/2012 11:37:11 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3: Humility will go a long way Mr. smartbets
This guys starting to remind me of Boom Boom in the college football forum |
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#308 Posted: 2/9/2012 11:48:34 AM
i do THIS
now thats what i call smart bet.
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Glock_II |
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#309 Posted: 2/9/2012 11:51:57 AM |
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LockBurger |
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#310 Posted: 2/9/2012 12:15:05 PM |
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mikgo11 |
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#311 Posted: 2/9/2012 12:18:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:
you know what i do when i am 90% sure of a bet?
i do THIS
now thats what i call smart bet.
A win is still a win no matter how big or small the bet is. You have your own style, skillz, and SB has his own. So please stop bashing his "90% sure pick". It's already done, and I think it's high time we leave this thread and move forward.
Congratulations again, SB, on a job well done. |
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zenci37 |
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#312 Posted: 2/9/2012 1:04:17 PM
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smartbets |
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#313 Posted: 2/9/2012 1:13:34 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:
Smartbets through my search for the best cappers I have come upon this thread. First off good call on the game. But Kapono was right dude. The things you are saying here are not logical. I mean you made the right call but I am calling you a liar for saying you truly believed it was a 90%....IF and only IF you do have mulitple unit plays. As far as I am concerned if you truly believe you have a 90% to hit then thats MAX play. So like some others stated if 90% only gets a 1 unit play whats it have to be to be a 2,3,4, or 5 unit play? Just curious but these are the things I look at to determine whether peole know what they are doing or are having a good solid lucky year.
That being said I am not hating just asking for clarification. I see your doing a great job and your records/units indicate you must play multi unit plays and often. So once again I just dont comprehend how is a 9 outta 10 play for 1 unit. Reasoning is more important than picks or results in my eyes so if you have time please explain.
Thank you and Good Luck. 
It's time to let this thread end. I do want to answer you because I don't want you to think I put you on ignore.
I tried explaining this on one of the previous pages, but it goes like this.
In a nutshell, I had this having a very high % chance of covering.
So this game started out as a higher graded play. Once I factored in both teams venue bias, meaning how good Philly was at home, and how the Spurs had been on the road, I downgraded it to a 1u play.
So if you really want to word it differently, I could've said. I felt this play had a 9 out of 10 chance of hitting, once I factored in the venue bias you could say 6.5-7/10.
And there was a little bit of me being conservative for money management. I'm trying to get to 100 and I didn't wanna go all in on a 4-5u play in a situation on a road team who had same big time issues, vs a home team who has been killing it.
I do things differently than most and I don't have any issues with explaining how I do it. This really is the best that I can explain it.
I hope this helps,
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mrquija27 |
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#314 Posted: 2/9/2012 3:53:51 PM Ok so based on saying that, the reality is you only gave it a 65%-70% chance. I mean you did factor it in and it did become part of capping and the END result was the 65-70% Either way that is a very high percentage and to me would justify more units if you play the multi unit gig.
I really dont have a problem at all with how you do things. I was just trying to make the point that Kapono and others where correct to question you based on the info you gave us. 90% should never equal 1 unit if you play 1-5 units. Obviously we are reading too much into this and you are not which is fine. I am just trying to determine who knows what the darn they are talking about. I think you do but I really do but sounds kinda dumb when you say 90% but only 1 unit. You definitely contradict yourself with that one..
Thanks for the explanation.
One other point.... its like saying this...
I determined the Pistons have a 90% chance of winning by my first process of capping. Then I capped they actually had to play a team then the odds dropped to 15%.
You really where never at 90% because your capping was not completed. Once again no hate, just explaining how you related the message. |
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savoieboy |
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#315 Posted: 2/9/2012 4:03:16 PM Keep up the good work. You can say whatever you want. All I know is you have been making me some good coin.
Thanks again  |
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