September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#301
Posted: 5/20/2013 12:24:29 PM
For today 5.18.2013:

Take:

#951 Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 ($82 to win $82)
over the Miami Marlins

List: Hamels / Sanabia

*The Marlins are an ugly 0-11 (-4.64 ppg, +98.8% roi) in home games after 3+ games where they committed zero errors.
-That is 0-11 on the runline as well.
*The Phillies are 18-4 SU (+2.95 rpg, 81.8%, +38.9% roi) since 2009 after a win where they were trailing in the 8th inning.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#302
Posted: 5/20/2013 12:25:53 PM
sorry that one on Philly is TODAY (5.20.2013). Typo...
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#303
Posted: 5/20/2013 12:42:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JDubs800:

Nice thread, no-juice plays... like it.

Thanks Dubs. That's the idea.

I like using the 1RL when we're playing favorites. I never feel that I can go that heavy on the regular runline and with the moneyline I hate the juice so the 1RL is my bet of choice when it isn't April or September.

You can get a free excel calculator to make the bet if you google: ' 1RL calculator

 
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quote#304
Posted: 5/21/2013 2:57:29 PM
For today 5.21.2013:

Take:

#916 Toronto Blue Jays +132 ($164 to win $216.48)
over the Tampa Bay Rays

List: Ortiz / Cobb


herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#305
Posted: 5/22/2013 12:40:46 PM
For 2013.05.22 Take:

San Francisco -1 +105 ($246 to win $258.30)

List: Bumgarner / Gonzalez

*Since 2012, San Francisco is 67-36 (65%, +24.87 units) SU after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs.
**This season that's a massive 17-4 (81%, +12.25 units, +45% roi)!
*Since 2012, the Giants are 46-24 +20.98 units (65.7%) SU against left handed opponents.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#306
Posted: 5/23/2013 2:00:36 PM
For 2013.05.23 Take:

Detroit -1.5 +125 ($410 to win $512.50)
over the Minnesota Twins

List: Diamond / Porcello

*Since 2004, road teams are just 38-76 (-.76, 33.3%, -39.33 units) SU in May after 3+ straight inter-league games. 
-Since 2010, the Tigers are THE best team at covering the runline as home favorites and not many stand close (Yankees close....home crowd loves the blowouts).
*The Detroit Tigers are 137-136 +29.29 units (+9.9% roi) at home since 2010 on the runline and 55-52 +12.96 units (+11.1% roi) since 2012.
**That's 109-115 (48.7%, +12.1% roi) since 2010 as home favorites (runline).
-the Tigers are 21-8 SU and 21-8 RL (+16.7 units, +47.7% roi) since 2011 after a game with over 15 total runs scored by both teams. 
**That's 11-4 RL (+10.89 units, +72.6% roi) as home favorites!
gbpackman PM gbpackman
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quote#307
Posted: 5/24/2013 10:13:48 AM

Thought DET would get one more. I had -1. Can't win em all. Great job and thanks for the picks!

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#308
Posted: 5/24/2013 11:15:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Thought DET would get one more. I had -1. Can't win em all. Great job and thanks for the picks!


You were smart. I kicked myself a bit for not doing that too....because I always try to keep one thing in mind with runline: the -1.5 is only to be played on road teams. -1 or ML for home favs because if they're leading they play one less inning than the other team and that's conducive to a tighter margin.

I'm glad to hear that the -1 paid off for you and you played it smart there. At the same time though....Detroit still is #1 in the League for covering the -1.5 as home favorites. We lost that one MAINLY due to a big dumb (flukey?) inning early on for the Twins.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#309
Posted: 5/24/2013 11:16:21 AM
I've got a treat for today. It is a two team parlay. Rather than micro trend validation, I'll show you two of my big systems driving these two plays.
DAVIDN PM DAVIDN
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quote#310
Posted: 5/24/2013 11:18:09 AM
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#311
Posted: 5/24/2013 11:27:00 AM
For 5.24.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
#972 Boston Red Sox ML
($656 to win $1,186.05)

*MAY SYSTEM - 1664-1366 (54.9% +143.41 units) - Active on Boston - Sub .600 Home teams cheaper than -175 in May (since 2004). Opponent is not on a losing streak worse than 3 losses.

*BIG EARLY SEASON CHALK SYSTEM - 216-85 (+1.77 rpg, 71.8%, +27.80 units) - Active on Detroit - April and May; Favorites -200 to -250. Public usually hates these, but they come through at a rate good enough to take on the money line.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#312
Posted: 5/24/2013 11:32:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DAVIDN:


Closing on a house today. May not post anything for a few days. If I can though I will.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#313
Posted: 5/25/2013 11:39:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 5.24.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
#972 Boston Red Sox ML
($656 to win $1,186.05) WINNER!

*MAY SYSTEM - 1664-1366 (54.9% +143.41 units) - Active on Boston - Sub .600 Home teams cheaper than -175 in May (since 2004). Opponent is not on a losing streak worse than 3 losses.

*BIG EARLY SEASON CHALK SYSTEM - 216-85 (+1.77 rpg, 71.8%, +27.80 units) - Active on Detroit - April and May; Favorites -200 to -250. Public usually hates these, but they come through at a rate good enough to take on the money line.

New Bankroll: $6,248.96 (+56.22 units)
from $4000

 Tigers won a big shut out and Boston a win by 7 runs.


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quote#314
Posted: 5/25/2013 11:43:43 AM
This might be my most important post/statement I make here: Notice our win / loss record is lousy? I don't even keep record of it. That.is.MLB. Most people who make money in bases hit around 45-52% and people who hit over 54%+ MOSTLY are losing money! 

Avoid that chalk when you can by taking -1 runlines, Underdogs or Two Team Parlays. July is the only profitable money of the MLB season for Favorites fyi...
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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quote#315
Posted: 5/25/2013 11:59:46 AM
Do you realize Detroit is 12-9 on RL this year down 7.04 units?  
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quote#316
Posted: 5/25/2013 12:44:48 PM
Favorites -200 to -250 this year are 30-13 up +2.45 units , but if you bet all favorites -200 and up it's 43- 18 up +1.05 units not worth risk in my opinion
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#317
Posted: 5/26/2013 12:27:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Do you realize Detroit is 12-9 on RL this year down 7.04 units?  

Not sure what you're smokin' Jeff or where you are getting your numbers. I'd like to "help" you since you asked.

1. This season, Detroit is 25-22 (53.2%, +3.74 units) on any runline. 21-19 (52.5%, +5.28) and Favorites. 12-10 (54.5%, +4.01 units) as home favorites.

2. Since 2010, they're 110-117 (+26.61 units, +11.5% roi) on the runline as home favorites. That tops the league actually.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#318
Posted: 5/26/2013 12:39:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Favorites -200 to -250 this year are 30-13 up +2.45 units , but if you bet all favorites -200 and up it's 43- 18 up +1.05 units not worth risk in my opinion

So what. Since 2004 (10 year sample), April and May Favorites between -200 and -250 are 218-86 (71.7%, +27.45 units, +4.1% roi).

If you concentrate too heavily on what happens or has happened in just one year or season you won't do well in the long run. You need to start using systems or models the consider very large samples and that are simple and logical. Don't bet on your opinion; bet on facts and you'll turn your record around.


Bankroll: $6,248.96 (+56.22 units)
from $4000


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quote#319
Posted: 5/26/2013 12:47:04 PM
For Sunday 5.26.2013:

Two Team Parlay:
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
#956 Milwaukee Brewers ML
($86 to win $127.50)

JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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quote#320
Posted: 5/26/2013 12:52:45 PM
I understand what your saying Herb but extrapolated out over 10 years that is only 2.74 units a year again not worth risk. Good luck today on your plays
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#321
Posted: 5/26/2013 1:01:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

I understand what your saying Herb but extrapolated out over 10 years that is only 2.74 units a year again not worth risk. Good luck today on your plays

Simple and logical systems with big sample and modest roi are worth the risk. People just can't stomach big chalk like that...which is one of the reasons it is a good system. What usually works in betting is what turns your stomach into a knot...most of the time that would be the underdog, but that system fits the same sort of bill.
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quote#322
Posted: 5/26/2013 4:14:01 PM
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#323
Posted: 5/27/2013 12:44:40 PM
For Memorial Day:

Two Team Parlay:
#908 Milwaukee Brewers ML
#914 Tampa Bay Rays ML
($112 to win $214.72)



gbpackman PM gbpackman
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quote#324
Posted: 5/28/2013 12:23:49 PM
MIL hasn't played well. They've had some negative reports. Same goes for KC. I am staying away from both for a while. If you lose at home (MIL) to a so so team, that is not a good sign.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#325
Posted: 5/28/2013 12:46:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

If you lose at home (MIL) to a so so team, that is not a good sign.

How would you define "so so"? I can check this thought out in my databases to see how teams that lose at home to so so teams do.


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