Postseason - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Postseason - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/12/2012 1:50:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by prman23:

got the baseball link but NFL cant get

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit
prman23 PM prman23
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Posted: 10/12/2012 1:58:46 PM
got it now thanks.  was looking for minn wash game breakdown
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:00:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

 I think I saw you post some numbers on this.  I'm too lazy and at work to look it up.  I'm assuming you have data to back that up, knowing you.  I hope you're right  

Of course I have data to back this up!

Since 2010, Gio has started 46 games where he saw the same team twice (or more) in the same season.  In these 46 games these are his numbers:

3.4 ERA
4.2 FIP
4.0 xFIP

8.5 K/9
4.1 BB/9
2.1 K/BB

8.1 H/9

As you can see, he's a power strikeout pitcher no matter when you face him.. however, teams seem to see his pitches much better the second time around forcing a very high 4.1 BB/9 and a reasonably high 8.1 H/9.  That's about 13 base runners per 9 innings of work. The Cardinals are a top 5 offense against lefties and have now seen Gio twice in a month.  They already made improvements in the last game by forcing a lot of walks (consistent with the data).. I expect them to put that together with a few more hits this time around.  I'm expecting 3-4 runs from the Cardinals and with AW on the mound, this could very well be enough.  My model has them as slight favorites and I think that's accurate.  All the value is with St. Louis.

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:01:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by prman23:

got it now thanks.  was looking for minn wash game breakdown

I was waiting on RGIII's status before running the sheet.  I'll post that game soon.
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:53:42 PM
thanks bud   im on it 
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/12/2012 3:52:06 PM
Here's the same stat line for Gio in the first games against a team between 2010 - 2012

2.9 ERA
3.2 FIP
4.7 xFIP

8.8 K/9
3.7 BB/9
2.3 K/BB

7.0 H/9
js4u PM js4u
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Posted: 10/12/2012 4:04:53 PM
Anyone know the Over/Under trend for a elimination playoff game?
nepatriots_12 PM nepatriots_12
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Posted: 10/12/2012 6:00:53 PM
Silly you leaning towards making Cards an official play?


Kaka123 PM Kaka123
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Posted: 10/12/2012 9:04:10 PM
Looking like a good idea to stay away from your Cardinals lean so far.
Lakerboy PM Lakerboy
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Posted: 10/13/2012 12:56:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:

Looking like a good idea to stay away from your Cardinals lean so far.


you should know by now never to doubt silly..his sheets are absolutely amazing, it showed -110 cards while vegas had +125, went cards big silly
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 10/13/2012 12:59:52 AM


5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 10/13/2012 1:00:42 AM
I prob wouldn't have made the play if not for Silly's sheet today in all honesty 
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 10/13/2012 1:08:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

I prob wouldn't have made the play if not for Silly's sheet today in all honesty 
along with his insight on Gio tipped the scales for me.  I'd tip silly if I could
S777S PM S777S
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Posted: 10/13/2012 1:09:07 AM
Vinhmlb PM Vinhmlb
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Posted: 10/13/2012 2:36:36 AM
thanks for Cards pick!  We got lucky, but I will take it! lol


si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/13/2012 8:09:46 AM
Hahaha, I appreciate the kind words guys, but I don't think my sheets had anything to do with that win...  Sure Gio's stat line was pretty close to what the historical #'s suggested, but Wainwright gave up 6!  What the Cardinals did in the 9th was simply amazing.  Did you know the game-tying and game-winning runs got on base by forcing full-count walks?  All 4 runs came with 2 outs!  Unbelievable.  Hats off to the Cardinals.

CSFurious PM CSFurious
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Posted: 10/13/2012 8:20:09 AM

that was a disaster

no team ever came back in an elimination game from that big of a deficit before last night

i hate the Nats but i was laughing early because i bet big on the RL & then turned the game off when it got ugly

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/13/2012 9:34:57 AM
Today's game is up.  I don't have a line at my shop on the game so I just guessed -150 without thinking much of it.
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 10/13/2012 11:22:50 AM
agreed.. great at-bats by the Cards.  Note that Storen was never taken out.  Wasn't his fault
S777S PM S777S
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Posted: 10/13/2012 12:13:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by venitor:

I'm a specialist in American sports. Most interest in the NBA and NHL. My effectiveness on the last few years to 12,678 units. 
So I decided to set up a blog to share with you my picks. Every day I will give you two games for free. It is also possible to purchase a subscription.
The price is 300$ for the whole year. Then give 4-5 games every day.

My blog:  http://good-matches.blogspot.com
RUS64 PM RUS64
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Posted: 10/13/2012 1:31:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by S777S:



yes, no profit, promissed a lot, but...
Lakerboy PM Lakerboy
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Posted: 10/13/2012 2:15:02 PM
Yanks at -134 seems like a good price based on your model showing -170
Lakerboy PM Lakerboy
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Posted: 10/13/2012 2:22:43 PM
I also think the bats light up, all the pressure from both game 5 games are relieved and it's a fresh start to a series. I see this going 6-4 yankees. What do you think about this game silly?
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 10/13/2012 2:24:34 PM
yanks 
Vinhmlb PM Vinhmlb
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quote#100
Posted: 10/13/2012 2:32:21 PM
Silly....just curious, looking at your spreadsheet for pitcher's fundamental I did not see WHIP.  Or maybe you have it but I am not seeing it correctly.

Anyways, I look at WHIP and last 3 games as key indicators.  I also look at history matchup vs same team along with day/night and home/away stats.

I hardly every look at ERA as I feel WHIP is a better indicator how many runs can be projected to score.

Any thoughts?
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