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Author: [College Football] Topic: Lefty's Leans Week 7: (+$1,183 last week)
Lefty_Rosenthal send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: M Resort |
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#1
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:56:08 PM


Back to normal again.  Back2back weeks of killing it.  I'm 12-2 and +$2,350 the last two weeks with my ML strategy. 
Finally out of the red after being weeks 2-4.  Year mark stands at +$1,152

week 6: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101435010

Onward we go.  Won't be slowing down, more profits forthcoming.

Now again, my philosophy for betting college football is simple.  Coaches and players care about winning ball games, not covering point spreads.  I like my money on the side of these motivations.

I will be playing TWO ML locks with EVERY play I make.  Last week it was Toledo and Mich St, both winning, granted Mich St. closer than I'd like.  On the Year my ML locks are 11-1.  Here's this week's ML locks.

Northern Illinois ML(-500) - I still love this N. Ill team.  Jordan Lynch is an absolute beast.  He's thrown for 1255 yds with 9 tds and 3 ints, while running for 789 and 9 tds on the ground.  Not to mention a stacked defense going against a run heavy Buffalo team, who has played better this year, but they give up 5.5 yds per run and is still not capable of beating a team like N. Ill on the road who has beaten Buffalo 7 straight times.  At home, with nobody of note behind them, N Ill rolls here.

Alabama ML (-1450) - We all know how dominate Alabama has been.  Missouri is just not ready for the SEC elite which clearly Bama is.  Not to mention Bama is coming off a bye, I love a Saban team coming off a bye.  Bama rolls here, enough said.

So again, I'll be playing each of my TWO ML locks with each one of these plays.  Here are this weeks plays.

1) Baylor ML(-290) - Love Baylor, Nick Florence is filling in for RG3 nicely, while TCU is in disarray after suspension of Pachall.  Baylor also coming off a bye which is a situation I love, especially since the last game they played was that wild shootout against W Virginia who as we know is the real deal.  Baylor rolls.

Bet $413/$300

2) Wash St +7.5 - Nothing but a situational play here.  California is in the ULTIMATE sandwich game, just coming off their biggest win of season(letdown), with Stanford on deck.  I'll take the points for the home dog in this situation every day of the week.

Bet $138/$200

3) West Virginia/Texas Tech Over 79 - This West Virginia team can score on anybody.  Texas Tech will be able to keep pace.   I wouldn't be surprised to see this game in the 100's, 79 should be easy to reach. 

Bet $138/$200

4) South Car ML(+120) - I love this gamecocks squad.  Their defense is legit, Shaw and Lattimore add balance to the offense.  I just think they're just plain better than LSU and probably should be favored in this game, regardless of where it's played.  Florida locked down this overrated LSU team last week, S Car does the same this week.

Bet $110/$200

more to come...


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TRAIN69
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#2
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:58:42 PM
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#3
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:07:48 PM
5) Rutgers ML (-280) - I love this Rutgers team.  Their defense is absolutely stingy as garbage.  Syracuse is an average Big East team going on the road to take on the Big East elite.  Get's ugly.

Bet $404/$300


6) Toledo ML (-550) - Toledo is still undervalued going into an absolutely dismal East Mich team.  Toledo dominated C Mich last week as one of my ML locks, they go into E Mich and destroy.

Bet $389/$200

7) Kent St ML (-130) -  I love this Kent St team this year(never thought I'd say that).  Their defense is dominant but that was expected, it's their offense that has been surprising this year.  Army coming off their biggest win of the season, Army is one dimensional and Kent St will load the box, and shut down this option rush attack.  Kent St rolls yet again.

Bet $236/$300

8) North Car ML (-250) - I love this Carolina offense, their finally coming into their own.  Miami's defense got torched by Boston College early in the year, what do you think Carolina is gonna do?  Tar Heels roll.

Bet $252/$200

may add some more before kickoff.

Let's get that $$$ for the 3rd week in a row
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#4
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:09:36 PM
Watch out on LSU bro Saturday night in Death Valley is a tall task especially with a bunch of pissed off Cajuns.  Spurrier has a habit of dropping a big one after a big win just food for thought.  LSU will play with a chip on their shoulder best of luck. 
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#5
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:15:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



  Just saw you're on Bama heavy.  I always like to be on the side of the train, lol


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#6
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:17:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cajun_one:

Watch out on LSU bro Saturday night in Death Valley is a tall task especially with a bunch of pissed off Cajuns.  Spurrier has a habit of dropping a big one after a big win just food for thought.  LSU will play with a chip on their shoulder best of luck. 


I hear you brotha.  LSU can definitely win this game, and you're right about Spurrier, but this is the best defense he's ever had, and they will lock down that LSU offense, much like the Gators did.  Good luck to you as well
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#7
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:53:16 PM
seems like with alabama you wouldn't have to go all the way down to ml, rather just take them at say -9.5, and make much more money--that is if you really feel they will roll mizzou.
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#8
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:56:22 PM

i believe in toledo and kent st big this week.   bol.

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#9
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:02:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by redbook1:

seems like with alabama you wouldn't have to go all the way down to ml, rather just take them at say -9.5, and make much more money--that is if you really feel they will roll mizzou.


Alabama winning is a lock.  Covering is likely, but not a lock.  You could've said same thing last week with Mich St playing a bad Indiana team.  I thought they would crush, they barely won.  Again, I like money lines because that's all team care about.  Do you think Saban cares about covering 21, or 10, or any #.  No, he cares about winning, which he will do.
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#10
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:38:11 AM
Lefty, like everything you have written except you seem to throw around the "L" word a lot.  In football there is no such thing as a "L".  

Just my humble opinion.

I'll continue to follow your plays and rationale.  Keep dealing the winners.

E.

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#11
Posted: 10/9/2012 1:47:13 PM
Love the unique betting strategies. Nice work.
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#12
Posted: 10/9/2012 2:10:22 PM
Like your card although that NC game would make me nervous as both teams are Jekyll and Hyde week to week. NC has been exploited a few times on D this year and with miami's speed the over most likely the best bet
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#13
Posted: 10/9/2012 2:23:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Etrigan:

Lefty, like everything you have written except you seem to throw around the "L" word a lot.  In football there is no such thing as a "L".  

Just my humble opinion.

I'll continue to follow your plays and rationale.  Keep dealing the winners.

E.



I can't argue that.  But to be fair, my ML "Locks" are 11-1, and as I have stated through past posts I have picked around 95% on these ML Locks throughout my 10 year betting career using this strategy.  That's about as close to a lock as you can get which is why I'm willing to put over a grand out on each of these picks every week.  And let's be honest, Lefty's Locks just sounds better than Lefty's Likely Winners, lol
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#14
Posted: 10/9/2012 2:50:06 PM
InVegas

All American - I think N Car is by far the better team and I don't think Miami is the type of team to react well in the face of adversity(getting smacked down by ND), but with that said, N Car hasn't played extremely well on road this year, but they have mojo, have momentum and I think they keep it up against this porous Miami defense.  GL though
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#15
Posted: 10/9/2012 3:42:56 PM
QUOTE
Originally Posted by Lefty_Rosenthal:

 

I can't argue that.  But to be fair, my ML "Locks" are 11-1, and as I have stated through past posts I have picked around 95% on these ML Locks throughout my 10 year betting career using this strategy.  That's about as close to a lock as you can get which is why I'm willing to put over a grand out on each of these picks every week.  And let's be honest, Lefty's Locks just sounds better than Lefty's Likely Winners, lol

Sorry for the question, but new to the boards. So let me understand, as with Alabama, you risk $1,450 to win a $100? Am I reading this correctly? I actually like the ML strategies, but you must have quite a large bankroll, or a very good local, to play all those games on the ML.
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#16
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:09:59 PM

sportslefty,

You are not reading this correctly at ALL!!!  Lefty has come up with a system to bet 3 team parlays, and starts each of them with 2 'sure' bet ML spreads.  AL ML-1450, N. Ill ML -500 and the couples these two with each and every bet he lists afterwards.  Always 3 teamers, and always at much better pay out odds.  Killer is if one of the ML top plays loses, everything is lost.  Alabama will win.  Will N. Illy??  That could be the key play or killer.

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#17
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:29:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by youngrb69:

sportslefty,

You are not reading this correctly at ALL!!!  Lefty has come up with a system to bet 3 team parlays, and starts each of them with 2 'sure' bet ML spreads.  AL ML-1450, N. Ill ML -500 and the couples these two with each and every bet he lists afterwards.  Always 3 teamers, and always at much better pay out odds.  Killer is if one of the ML top plays loses, everything is lost.  Alabama will win.  Will N. Illy??  That could be the key play or killer.



Yes, you are correct.  These are all 3 team parlays, all with my TWO ML "locks".  And you are also correct that if I whiff on one of these ML "locks" then my whole week is

The only ML lock that lost this year was Wisconsin @ Oregon St in week 2.  Totally overvalued Wisky and overplayed the fact that Or St had their first game cancelled, along with poor rush D from year ago.  With that said, most of my ML locks win and cover easily.  Of the eleven I won, I believe only two didn't cover ATS.  But yes, that is the risk each and every week.  I try to only bet about 10% of my bankroll with this strategy, my BR this year for gambling was right around $10,000.  And I have never lost with this strategy going back close to ten years.
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#18
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:36:21 PM

Love the strategy my man.  Like it even more when the ML's are at the same time, so you don't spend the whole day with ca$h tied up and sweating the end result of one or the other.  The rest of the plays are what they are at that point.

Good luck.  I'll be watching

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#19
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:58:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by youngrb69:

Love the strategy my man.  Like it even more when the ML's are at the same time, so you don't spend the whole day with ca$h tied up and sweating the end result of one or the other.  The rest of the plays are what they are at that point.

Good luck.  I'll be watching



It's nice not to sweat, but that has no bearing in any of my picks.


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#20
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:35:16 PM
Well put and a nice record to back it up.  One thing I have learned painfully is fewer games, deeper bets on the ones that your gut tells you are strong.  For me, my #1 and #2 selected games I'm as good as anyone on the board, when I go beyond that's when things fall apart.  Yes, I'm a rehabilitating parlay & teaser guy, though I hit my biggest bet of the year on a 2 tm tease..over and texans. 

So I'll take your top picks into consideration when picking my top 2 straight games.  Im not a ML guy because of the juice but will look at your spread picks closely.

Keep rolling the winners my friend.

E.
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#21
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:10:48 PM

the key is to find an angle and keep at it, and don't break your own rules....

keep it going Lefty!

GLTY

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#22
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:17:37 PM
GL Lefty
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#23
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:03:53 AM
Lefty I got burned by Wisky doing the same strategy for that particular week.Lost 800 but I just now bounced back this past weekend. Definately respect the card. Kinda wanna tail your top two picks honestly. Buffalo played GA pretty tough week 1 FWIW. Still dont really see them beating N Illi in thir house tho BOL
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#24
Posted: 10/10/2012 11:25:04 AM
Love the strategy, but it does take some balls, if one those locks is a loser your whole day is fucked!  Don't know if I could take that kind of stress.
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#25
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:45:19 PM
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