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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB - Tuesday 8/18
macdak43 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 8/18/2009 4:55:47 PM
Awesome Radio Show Today Game Hunter 
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#52
Posted: 8/18/2009 4:57:19 PM
GH... on betting favorites do you bet a winning unit of what you stated or you bet the unit you stated? 
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#53
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:00:10 PM
Good show GH  
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#54
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:14:00 PM
I respect you as a capper game, but i don't think there's any rhyme or reason for this pirates game, unless you are gonna come up with some psychological stuff.  Take a look at my post today if you're so interested, it is my play of the day on the Brewers, capped it at -164.  Again, I could easily lose this play, but in my opinion I will win this at least 60% of the time.  Just my two cents, in case you might be interested.  Again, am not one of those haters who rips your plays, and I do appreciate you in the forum.  I like your rays play today, as I almost had that as one of my own, but got a touch too high.
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#55
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:25:35 PM
  GAME
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#56
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:25:47 PM
SOLID show today as usual
 
NO TOTALS today 
 
GL tonight Game
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#57
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:27:44 PM
bro
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#58
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:30:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

I respect you as a capper game, but i don't think there's any rhyme or reason for this pirates game, unless you are gonna come up with some psychological stuff.  Take a look at my post today if you're so interested, it is my play of the day on the Brewers, capped it at -164.  Again, I could easily lose this play, but in my opinion I will win this at least 60% of the time.  Just my two cents, in case you might be interested.  Again, am not one of those haters who rips your plays, and I do appreciate you in the forum.  I like your rays play today, as I almost had that as one of my own, but got a touch too high.


Moo,

You know I have big time respect for you and I always welcome differing opinions. I also respect your use of SABERMETRICs in your post.  You raise some interesting points. I don't see Manny Parra on the improve as you state. In fact, I see him on another downward curve and he has been absolutely horrible on the road. In his last 5 startsm he has thrown 30 innings and allowed 48 hits, 23 earned runs and a 25:14 K:BB ratio. That's an ERA of 6.90 and WHIP of 2.06. In addition, his road ERA this season is 7.18 and his road WHIP is 1.89. You make some interesting poiints about the ballpark configurations favoring lefties, but I still think Parra is off form and has been overused since the all-star break. His pitch totals since the break have been 124, 106, 113, 102, 107 and 104. The wheels started to fall off after the 124 pitch outing.

Meanwhile, Ross Ohlendorf has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. his home ERA is 3.18 and the Pirates are 9-3 when he starts at home. If you think about that, that it amazing when you realize the Pirates are 47-70 this season.
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#59
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:41:22 PM
Best of Luck  
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#60
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:49:00 PM
BOL

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#61
Posted: 8/18/2009 5:51:53 PM
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#62
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:02:57 PM
Price -270??? Is that a little overpriced for Price or what?  Pardon the pun on price.
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#63
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:20:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

I respect you as a capper game, but i don't think there's any rhyme or reason for this pirates game, unless you are gonna come up with some psychological stuff.  Take a look at my post today if you're so interested, it is my play of the day on the Brewers, capped it at -164.  Again, I could easily lose this play, but in my opinion I will win this at least 60% of the time.  Just my two cents, in case you might be interested.  Again, am not one of those haters who rips your plays, and I do appreciate you in the forum.  I like your rays play today, as I almost had that as one of my own, but got a touch too high.


Line -164 has implied probability 62.1%, so you need to win at least 62.1% to make a profit.
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#64
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:23:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 3put:



Line -164 has implied probability 62.1%, so you need to win at least 62.1% to make a profit.
Are you stupid? That's his line. The line is -115 available to bet.
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#65
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:27:05 PM
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#66
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:32:55 PM
Nice show Game!  
 
No golf talk?  
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#67
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:33:07 PM
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#68
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:35:45 PM
Good Luck tonight game, keep battling bro, your too good of a capper not to turn it around! Hope all is well.

Buck


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#69
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:42:29 PM
3put, I projected the line at -164, the line was actually -110, you can see the value there.
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#70
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:49:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

3put, I projected the line at -164, the line was actually -110, you can see the value there.


Yes, I'm a fool.
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#71
Posted: 8/18/2009 6:53:31 PM
  GL Game
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#72
Posted: 8/18/2009 8:23:50 PM
Just listened to the radio show and the Prez was right on, great segment! Good discussion about everything your threads are all about. Glad you can express yourself in that way and hopefully, people get a chance to hear this.
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#73
Posted: 8/19/2009 11:58:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GameHunter:



Moo,

You know I have big time respect for you and I always welcome differing opinions. I also respect your use of SABERMETRICs in your post.  You raise some interesting points. I don't see Manny Parra on the improve as you state. In fact, I see him on another downward curve and he has been absolutely horrible on the road. In his last 5 startsm he has thrown 30 innings and allowed 48 hits, 23 earned runs and a 25:14 K:BB ratio. That's an ERA of 6.90 and WHIP of 2.06. In addition, his road ERA this season is 7.18 and his road WHIP is 1.89. You make some interesting poiints about the ballpark configurations favoring lefties, but I still think Parra is off form and has been overused since the all-star break. His pitch totals since the break have been 124, 106, 113, 102, 107 and 104. The wheels started to fall off after the 124 pitch outing.

Meanwhile, Ross Ohlendorf has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. his home ERA is 3.18 and the Pirates are 9-3 when he starts at home. If you think about that, that it amazing when you realize the Pirates are 47-70 this season.

That's it right there, a productive dialogue between 2 solid cappers with differing opinions. These are the types of conversations that we all have to do our best to stay focused on. It's hard to ignore but the haters will come and go, just let them be. It's these types of convos that really help regardless of which side you're on. 

Nice job fellas.  
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