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Author: [College Football] Topic: Large lines in Week 1 of the College Football Season.
DoubleUp4Life
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#26
Posted: 6/19/2012 3:30:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by packers1992:

hoosier i think notre dame could win 10 games if Kelly commits to a qb but i don't trust him to do that and i have them winning 9 games

Highly doubt they sniff 9 Wins 

right now Over 8.5 is +160 and under is -210

The schedule is Brutal(Steele's Hardest in Country)

7-5 at BEST IMNHO 

Not sure Kelly's whinny bitching  style works with Blue chip recruits 


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#27
Posted: 6/19/2012 6:02:22 PM
well double up steele still had them winning about 9 games. I don't like Kelly either he whines too much but the n.dame prediction like the rest of the teams is my opinion
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#28
Posted: 6/19/2012 7:51:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bookieassassin:




prolly so...OU maybe next....

Although I think this is a sound strategy....one that will make you more than you lose in the long run....
Personally will be backing off some week 1 TY.....
because I have had EASILY my worst weeks early the last 3-4 yrs seems like.....(before easily my best weeks)

What I will do now....and hopefully from here on out....
is to EVERY week look for VALUE....and avoid "shortcuts".....like just play favs.....dogs....whatever
     *but of course still pay close attention to season trends....> weeks 1-4 or so still (look to play) strong/dominant teams....> then look to FADE these same teams later......and so on

My week 1 card will look something like this....
     *off top of my head > done little work

CAL -14 or vs Nevada.....
      *back home....finished strong.....QB + weapons back
Pack weak on road.....with "winnable" HG next vs USF
Cal 13-3 ATS run as HF......with (slight) revenge angle from BIG 2010 loss at Nevada....only S Utah next

Nebraska -13' vs S Miss
      *SMiss starting over (6/4 st back .....lose huge QB / HC)......with a bye next......to re-group before CUSA game with EC....Huskers BADLY need big win and nice record as bully

NC St +7 or so vs Tenn
    great dog that matches up well....

OU -28' or so at UTEP
     *Miners ZERO chance of stopping Sooners....Mike back as DC should mean more defensive pride...(they were behind-kickers when he was there last)...

consider.....
Ohio +15 or so at Penn St
Zona -7 or so ? vs Toledo
Miami,O +27' at Ohio St
UNLV +13' ??....vs Minny

USC.....SMU....Boise...Marshall?.....EMich wtf (check out how much they have improved every year).....will be huge on WAZZU at some point....not yet probably   

here's the games im looking at week1:

NDvsNAVY - ND: new OC, good spring, need a QB

USCvsHAW - hawaii(new QB&HC)
GEOvsBUFF - DNT TRUST THEM for some reason(SO WHT),good spr.
UCF vs AKRON- UCF: bad DD FAV road team, good spr. no play
WVUvsMAR -
TREE vsSJSU- TREE new qb's need experience.
NEBvsSOMISS - coming off a down season shaky QB play. no play, but i still like the number for a NEB cover.
RUTvsTUL -RUT: lost a great coach, good spr.
LSUvsNO.TEX - inflated lines maybe
GT @ VATECH - GT: good spring

added after june:

texas-

oregon-

thurs : ucla@RICE, byuvsWSU, minn@UNLV,

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#29
Posted: 6/20/2012 9:37:33 AM
ATS OU SU season
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
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#30
Posted: 6/20/2012 9:42:55 AM
well that didnt turn out :(

for week 1

chalk of -27 or bigger is 16-14 ATS since 2007  (you could choose another number and it wont change drastically)

and chalk since 2005 is 150-133.  the last 3 years in week 1, chalk went 19-19, 19-15, 19-18

week 1..dont be afraid of chalk, but only playing chalk isnt going to bring you riches.



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#31
Posted: 6/20/2012 4:09:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jefff:

well that didnt turn out :(

for week 1

chalk of -27 or bigger is 16-14 ATS since 2007  (you could choose another number and it wont change drastically)

and chalk since 2005 is 150-133.  the last 3 years in week 1, chalk went 19-19, 19-15, 19-18

week 1..dont be afraid of chalk, but only playing chalk isnt going to bring you riches.



one thing u fail to realize is, the chalk that didn't cover looked like an easy cover...cant be scared of the number.

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#32
Posted: 6/21/2012 5:51:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

BA - thanks for the take

I love the Neb pick.    It is in my top 3.   TM will still look ugly, but effective.  I think the loss of Box by S Miss in the biggest impact on this game.   even with Box and a great D, S Miss barely pulled  it off against a marginal Nevada squad.

you know the OU game will start at 9:30 PM CST.  that is late.  the sun bowl will be packed, and the miners will be prepared and put up a fight based on their submarginal talen.  do you think the late start may have an adverse impact on ou covering.  the 4th quarter won's start until probably almost midnight cst.  or do you think BGB Stoops will come out and go bombs away, get up by 30 plus, then wear down UTEP with backups.  I think Whaley and Finch are going to be special in OU's pass first Offense.  I think with M Stoops, the D will be improved.   one positive sign that I saw recently was the sharks for OU (hurst et al) are going more low key.  that tells me that they will be more focussed with less moxie BS.  with mcfarland anchoring the line and word and harris at LB's M Stoops has had an impact.    this game was in my top 3, but I dropped it out for now.   i plan to read the scout ou board early and often and may put this back in the top 3.  what is your take on the late start impacting OU's potential cover at UTEP?

right now, my top 3

Nebraska -13 over S Miss (Lincoln)

LSU -40 over N Texas (BR)

UGA -37 over Buffalo (Athens)

watching

OU -29 over UTEP

N Dame - 14 over Navy (Dublin, Ireland)

UCF -19 over Akron (Akron)

Michigan St. -7 over Boise St. (E Lansing)

I will take a closer look at Cal -14 over Nevada (Berkeley)

Thank you in advance for your follow up!

 

 



late starts are risky either way...but with only Fla A&M on deck....then a bye....I would expect the Sooners to flat out murder the Miners ....
*try predicting the score here (always helpful)....
Sooners should get around 55 pts or so .....based on what they have scored vs weak D's......and what the Miners have given up....vs strong O's
Based on what we have seen the UTEP offense do vs even decent D's....they should be able to get 10-17 at most.....maybe slightly more.... maybe less

Miner D brings back 5 starters and 5/10 tacklers back from a D that gave up 7.7 yards/play and 6.4 yds/rush.....to good teams.....which is close to nation's worst.....
    *our pal Big Game Bob.....to get brother Mike to rescue the D.....had to give him FULL CONTROL I'm sure......meaning he will want to make a serious statement also.....meaning late in the 4th he will still be screaming at their behind every play.....cursing them for every yard they give up..... .........

55-13 OU.........

since you seem to enjoy exploring every angle you can...
one I bring up every year....but largely ignored ....is have classes started yet?......why?.....because practice rules are different....a team with no classes is free to practice longer hours....(but the same # of times)......also of course attending class does add (a degree) of stress.....especially to a team traveling
     *here OU starts 8/20.....UTEP 8/27
so no biggie

many west coast schools start late....so look for a team making a long road trip.....already in school....(especially in weekday games).....like LSU -17 @ Washington 2009....Tigers really lost interest late (I lost )        
   
  
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