Posted: 6/19/2012 7:51:43 PM
Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
prolly so...OU maybe next....
Although I think this is a sound strategy....one that will make you more than you lose in the long run....
Personally will be backing off some week 1 TY.....
because I have had EASILY my worst weeks early the last 3-4 yrs seems like.....(before easily my best weeks)
What I will do now....and hopefully from here on out....
is to EVERY week look for VALUE....and avoid "shortcuts".....like just play favs.....dogs....whatever
*but of course still pay close attention to season trends....> weeks 1-4 or so still (look to play) strong/dominant teams....> then look to FADE these same teams later......and so on
My week 1 card will look something like this....
*off top of my head > done little work
CAL -14 or vs Nevada.....
*back home....finished strong.....QB + weapons back
Pack weak on road.....with "winnable" HG next vs USF
Cal 13-3 ATS run as HF......with (slight) revenge angle from BIG 2010 loss at Nevada....only S Utah next
Nebraska -13' vs S Miss
*SMiss starting over (6/4 st back .....lose huge QB / HC)......with a bye next......to re-group before CUSA game with EC....Huskers BADLY need big win and nice record as bully
NC St +7 or so vs Tenn
great dog that matches up well....
OU -28' or so at UTEP
*Miners ZERO chance of stopping Sooners....Mike back as DC should mean more defensive pride...(they were behind-kickers when he was there last)...
Ohio +15 or so at Penn St
Zona -7 or so ? vs Toledo
Miami,O +27' at Ohio St
UNLV +13' ??....vs Minny
USC.....SMU....Boise...Marshall?.....EMich wtf (check out how much they have improved every year).....will be huge on WAZZU at some point....not yet probably
here's the games im looking at week1:
NDvsNAVY - ND: new OC, good spring, need a QB
USCvsHAW - hawaii(new QB&HC)
GEOvsBUFF - DNT TRUST THEM for some reason(SO WHT),good spr.
UCF vs AKRON- UCF: bad DD FAV road team, good spr. no play
TREE vsSJSU- TREE new qb's need experience.
NEBvsSOMISS - coming off a down season shaky QB play. no play, but i still like the number for a NEB cover.
RUTvsTUL -RUT: lost a great coach, good spr.
LSUvsNO.TEX - inflated lines maybe
GT @ VATECH - GT: good spring
added after june:
thurs : ucla@RICE, byuvsWSU, minn@UNLV,