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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: To Hedge or not to hedge last leg of huge teaser on giants mnf
JeromeBender send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#101
Posted: 11/29/2011 12:19:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:


I was thinking middle opportunity like everyone one saying. and i really thought the giants would keep it within 16.


never listen to anyone.  better to lose on ur own play than some other dumbass that has it "locked"
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Ice4Blood send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#102
Posted: 11/29/2011 12:19:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:

yeah luckily i hedged some of i but i should've hedged for more. I didnt think the Giants would suck this bad. wow



i think somebody else said this... but for future reference, if you are in this situation... HEED THIS ADVICE:

don't consider it a 10-team parlay with 9 in the bag... consider it a 9-team parlay that has already cashed, leaving you with a decision to make on the last game, that amounts to this question:

you've just cashed out $960 (half of the 10-team payout)... would you rather...
  • wager all of that $960 on one final play, all or nothing?... or...
  • take the remaining $960 and give yourself a $960 FREE PLAY MIDDLE OPPORTUNITY?


second option gives you 3 possibilities:

  1. Saints win by more than 16 points... you win $960
  2. Saints win by less than 7 (assuming you straight bet the Saints as your hedge)... you win $960
  3. Saints win by 8-15... you win roughly $3000




win, win, more win!  it is a no-brainer... don't ever take any other approach than this... the only alternative is to use an Alt-line (like -10.5 or -14.5)... but you absolutely MUST shoot for that middle in a situation like this... it is a FREE PLAY!

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Ice4Blood send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#103
Posted: 11/29/2011 12:21:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JeromeBender:



never listen to anyone.  better to lose on ur own play than some other dumbass that has it "locked"


except that the people he listened to today gave him good advice, and as a result, he avoided losing his entire winnings from a 9-team parlay... so......
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billsneedhelp send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
billsneedhelp
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#104
Posted: 11/29/2011 12:35:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:




i think somebody else said this... but for future reference, if you are in this situation... HEED THIS ADVICE:

don't consider it a 10-team parlay with 9 in the bag... consider it a 9-team parlay that has already cashed, leaving you with a decision to make on the last game, that amounts to this question:

you've just cashed out $960 (half of the 10-team payout)... would you rather...
  • wager all of that $960 on one final play, all or nothing?... or...
  • take the remaining $960 and give yourself a $960 FREE PLAY MIDDLE OPPORTUNITY?


second option gives you 3 possibilities:

  1. Saints win by more than 16 points... you win $960
  2. Saints win by less than 7 (assuming you straight bet the Saints as your hedge)... you win $960
  3. Saints win by 8-15... you win roughly $3000




win, win, more win!  it is a no-brainer... don't ever take any other approach than this... the only alternative is to use an Alt-line (like -10.5 or -14.5)... but you absolutely MUST shoot for that middle in a situation like this... it is a FREE PLAY!


I hear ya but this incorrect and not that simple-

I could not have won 960 taking the saints -7 if they win by less than 7 here is why. I would have had to lay $1080 @ -105 juice which means If saints didnt cover the 7 I lose the $1080 i risked to hedge but i hit the parlay for $1650 

S0 in the end I only net $1650-$1080 = $530 in that scenario


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MJ2345
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#105
Posted: 11/29/2011 1:52:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:

Ok FINALLY made my decision. I waited till the line dropped and took saints -7 (-105). I really wanted the key number.  Threw 800 on it. SO worst case i'll end up with close to 800. Hopefully I can middle that bt I'm not being greedy. I'l be happy to take a saints 7pt win to push that play and win the big teaser for 1650. 

GL tonight all and thanks for the input. 


Good going and you did the right thing!!
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Barbosa212 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#106
Posted: 11/29/2011 10:46:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:

yeah luckily i hedged some of i but i should've hedged for more. I didnt think the Giants would suck this bad. wow

Its the saints at home in a big game, not the sucking of the Giants. but good play either way....
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Celtics33 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#107
Posted: 11/29/2011 12:31:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:

Damn giants D is garbage I should have taken Saints -14.5 for +235
what the hell was I thinking 



The funny part about this is how you spent all day yesterday trying to sell people on taking the Giants...but you're not alone...this seems to be the norm around covers these days...guys give big writeups with all this information only to see that they were completely wrong
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billsneedhelp send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#108
Posted: 11/29/2011 1:25:41 PM
Honestly i was always a believer that a team with a great defense can hang with a team with a great offense. But i obviously overestimated the giants defense. That front four normally creates problems for even the best qb's and offenses. I really didnt see them getting blown out like that and most ppl didnt either. Thats why everyone was predicting a 7-14 pt saints win, with a possible giants upset seeing how they have played on the road against good teams (see the win over the pats a few weeks back) including me. That's why i took the giants +16.5 in the teaser to begin with. Plus it was a must win for the giants they should have been hungrier. There werent any "expert handicappers" that predicted a blowout.

Reality was gianst d just didnt show up they got manhandled all game and i have to give alot of credit to the saints they had a great game plan and came up with very creative blocking schemes to counter the giants pass rush. Add to that the giants turnovers and there you have it.

The bottom line is Sean Payton had his team much more prepared and fired up for the game than coughlin did. That is the reason the giants got their fools handed to them and those losers deserve it.

It is becoming difficult to tell in the nfl these days if a team will show up or not to play and give 100% effort. So with that unpredictability, its is very hard to cap games.


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