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Author: [WNBA] Topic: Sunday WNBA Picks and Analysis
ashongmd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ashongmd
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#1
Posted: 8/19/2012 12:53:14 PM

So...let me preface this by saying that my last BIG loss in the WNBA was taking the Mercury +10 vs. the Sparks in PHX.  Watching that game, it was evident that the Sparks were able to completely dominate the boards leading to multiple 2nd and 3rd chance opportunities and ended up covering.  Certainly didn't help that Charde Houston got injured midway through the 2nd half, leading to an LA blowout.

That being said, I see Phx getting +11 at home, and I cannot help myself.  The only way that I can see this not covering is if Taurasi DOES NOT PLAY. 

There are multiple things that factor into this thinking.  First, let's get to line value.  Silver Stars on a ridiculous winning streak right now, add inflation, Mercury getting creamed in Seattle last game by double digits (Taurasi did not play), add inflation.  Line movement from -9 to -11, add value.  Lots and lots of value on the home dog here.

Now is Taurasi playing?  Phx stood no chance in Seattle with Taurasi, Taylor, Dupree, and Houston out.  If you watched the Olympics at all, Taurasi looks fine and recovered from her hip injury.  The stated reason for her not playing in the Seattle game was delayed return from London.  I assume that Phx is still paying her a paycheck, so there is no reason that I could see her not playing in this game.

Also, I don't think of the Silver Stars and Sparks in the same way when it comes to post presence.  The Sparks are BIG down low, that is their strength.  The Silver Stars are more of a shoot you out of the gym type of team, so I think the Mercury match up better with them. 

Overall, just too much value...going big on the Mercury +11.

On other games...Chicago at Washington could really go either way, with Prince back though, Chicago should have enough to win, not confident in Chicago's game though, seen in me going huge against them when they played Atlanta.

Tulsa game, value's on Tulsa game, obviously.  The way the last two games against the Lynx played, the way they always seem to play the Lynx is close one half, blown out the other.  I plan on betting this one by halves.  Doubling up if the first one loses.

Thoughts and comments welcome.

BOL All

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ashongmd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 8/19/2012 12:54:19 PM

Typo, Charde Houston injured in 1st half.

Houston and Dupree out for this game following knee surgery during break. 

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utfootball4 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
utfootball4
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#3
Posted: 8/19/2012 12:57:35 PM
Ctown ML is money...
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Retburj13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#4
Posted: 8/19/2012 12:59:31 PM
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44-dimes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#5
Posted: 8/19/2012 1:29:58 PM
She is not going to play and this is why this line has gone up to -11.
They are so thin in scoring right now , it's a joke. Their best player is Sammy P , a 5'3 135 pound rookie out of ohio st and the only other decent perimeter player is Bonner. At one point against the Storm on Thursday they had Warley, Thomas and Kizer on the court at the same time.

I agree about the value part , but under these circumstances I don't like this game one bit. Pass for me and good luck to you.
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ashongmd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:45:40 PM
LOL, no Taurasi, no chance.
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Sacrifice send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 8/19/2012 9:16:37 PM
Hahahaha long writeups? Burn your money
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coldsnap55
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#8
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:37:57 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Sacrifice:

Hahahaha long writeups? Burn your money

 

You mean like  THIS 

Learn how to spell before you yap off 

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ashongmd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#9
Posted: 8/20/2012 1:08:32 AM

Sacrifice,

Please read the write up before you hate.  I said Phx Mercury if Taurasi PLAYS.  She did not.  Had a little bit of money in it, but crushed it on the flip side with SA in the 2nd half, which I posted, when it was clear that Phx could not compete without Taurasi.  Actually increased my bankroll by 66% today through all sports, so I didn't "Burn My Money"

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ashongmd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 8/20/2012 1:25:18 AM

Post game analysis:

Phx vs. SA:

Phx simply did not have enough firepower to compete with SA without Taurasi, Dupree, and Houston.  Phx may not have covered even with Taurasi, but without her, it was literally a record blowout.  This should really be a game written off for wagering purposes as it will simply inflate SA's win differential going forward, and Phx is a different team with Taurasi. 

Tulsa vs. Minn

Again, Tulsa plays well one half, trailing by 3 at the end of the 1st half, and then like garbage the other, lost by 24.  They just have difficulty putting together a full game.  Look to continue playing Tulsa by halves, as the end result is that they continue to fail to cover against the spread with the full game line, so the value will continue.

Wash vs. Chicago

True coinflip game, OT with multiple lead changes, Chicago getting a piece of last minute comeback action (after all of Prince's heroics) with Ajavon's game tying 3 with seconds left.  I think the takeaway from this game is that A) Chicago was a mediocre team overacheiving, and one that I don't trust away from home, even against bad teams.  B) Like a lot of teams, Washington is different home and away.  Games against Tulsa, New York, Chicago, and Phx are basically coinflips, advantage to the home team.  Any other team I trust on the ML to go into Washington and get the win.

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#11
Posted: 8/20/2012 1:31:36 AM

Looking forward to Tuesday's games:

Tulsa at Conn line will be ridiculous, as will the Wash at SA line.  I will be interested to see the LA/Indiana line, thinking -6 or -7.

The real line I am going to look at is New York at Chicago.  At home, I like Chicago to win this game after dropping their last 2.  I hold Cappie and Prince about equal in scoring potential, but Fowles is vastly superior down low.  The biggest thing is New York's turnovers.  Against Connecticut there was one stretch where they turned it over 9 out of 11 possessions in the 3rd quarter!  This will be their undoing against Chicago.

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