Werker's NFL Week 15

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Werker's NFL Week 15
shivaseven PM shivaseven
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Posted: 12/18/2011 12:29:37 AM

Werker, I see what your saying about the BENGALS - RAMS matchup, but there might be a different way to approach the game.

Rams stunk on Monday Night and this should add a little bit of line value on the RAMS. The betting public is backing CINCY with over 90% of the action which is a bad sign if you are looking to CINCY as the road favorite. The BENGALS have gone through a brutal stretch of games and they must be exhausted, especially with last weeks back breaking loss that virtually eliminated them from the playoffs. Since 2006 Cincy hasn't covered a game as a road favorite of more than 3 points. The last three games at home the RAMS have played New Orleans, a major upset, Seattle a blowout loss, and Arizona, a loss in a tight ball game. I'm not sure that the RAMS are the side, but tread carefully with a young BENGAL team that maybe exhausted and in a major letdown situation. Good Luck on the weekend

Werker PM Werker
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Posted: 12/18/2011 10:24:34 AM
Shiva: The combined record of the four teams the Bengals have lost to is 48-17. They are a good football team. And they are far from "virtually eliminated" from the playoffs. They're one game behind the Jets, who have the Eagles, Giants and Fins in their final three games, none of which are easy wins. And the Titans would have to win out to assure themselves of keeping the tiebreaker. Also, I don't care about historical stats when this Bengals team barely resembles the one just last year. The Bengals could definitely not cover or even win today, but I just don't agree with this line of thinking at all. BOL to you.
JFEEZEE PM JFEEZEE
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Posted: 12/18/2011 10:34:37 AM
shivaseven PM shivaseven
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Posted: 12/18/2011 10:43:05 AM

Werker, see your points. I guess you would have to hold your nose if you picked the RAMS. Anyways, spread in the game just bumped up to 7.5 points.

Speaking of line moves, at my out the Chiefs dropped from 14.5 to 13.0. Maybe there's big money coming in on the Chiefs at such a big number.

Strange, PATS just moved to an 8 point favorite vs. Denver. NE was an 8 point road favorite against Washington last week. I think Denver is a better football team than Washington, but the line is the same. It's kind of hard to figure what the public is thinking about on this one.

Werker PM Werker
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Posted: 12/18/2011 11:56:29 AM
Shiva: Yeah, I wouldn't back the Rams for the rest of the year unless the line gets crazy.

I lean the Chiefs, and have taken them in my pick'em pool, but can't bring myself to put money on them after last week's debacle. Will be happy to see them cover though.

Pats opened at 8 last week and moved to 7 by game time. This week they opened at 5 or 6 and have move to 8....having the Pats at 6 is possibly my favorite play of the week.

Added Plays:

Santana Moss o4 receptions: He's averaged 9.3 targets per game since coming back from injury. With the Giants weak secondary, he could just catch under half to push. I expect even better. Plus this could end up being a serious shootout.

AJ Green -8.5 yards over Lloyd: Both these guys are clear #1s, but Dalton and Green have very nice chemistry, and they like the deep ball. Plus the Rams secondary is insanely bad (due to injury). I do think Clemens will throw more than Dalton, but with just one week of practice, I'll take my chances here. 

If you're willing to pay the juice, I LOVE these two props, but won't risk injury costing me at these prices:

Graham -48.5 yards v Rudolph -240
Steve Smith u90.5 yards -220
PackFan12 PM PackFan12
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Posted: 12/18/2011 7:00:16 PM
Any plays for SNF?
Europa PM Europa
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Posted: 12/18/2011 7:05:02 PM

I maintain that the Jets are a bad team,

Right on the spot, Werker.

Werker PM Werker
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Posted: 12/18/2011 7:39:55 PM
5-2-1 on the week thus far....regret not just taking the Lions ML like I almost did...I'll get over it. 

Europa: You know it.

PackFan12: Nope. I don't have a good read on this game, and I don't like any of the lines for props. Will be watching and will be looking for a 2nd half play. BOL
Europa PM Europa
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Posted: 12/18/2011 7:46:17 PM

i had Jets +3

Brocos were also exposed big time by the Pats, i don't think John Fox can beat Bill Belichick if they should meet again in playoff.  

Europa PM Europa
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Posted: 12/18/2011 7:46:48 PM
brocos-->broncos
TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 12/19/2011 8:06:43 PM

I should have listened to you on the Eagles

Hope I helped sway you off Az

 

Werker PM Werker
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Posted: 12/20/2011 7:38:45 AM
TRAIN: I didn't like the Cards giving that much without Kolb. It really didn't make sense to me that that spread didn't go down when he was announced out. I don't trust Skelton at all against a decent pass d. 
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