| Author: |
[College Football] Topic: Largest early line moves.... |
|
bookieassassin |
 View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4572
Location: Texas |
#26 Posted: 9/20/2011 12:48:56 PM
Tulsa will cover !!....this is too easy !!!.....I guarantee it !!
as (I think Tyson said it)....when asked about a confident challenger...."they all are confident...until that 1st punch in the mouth"...then not so much..
|
|
quote |
|
Handicapper33 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1717
Location: Nevada |
#27 Posted: 9/20/2011 12:59:00 PM |
|
quote |
|
ryan8186 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 785
Location: Kentucky |
#28 Posted: 9/20/2011 1:37:21 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnynumbers: Georgia--I hate road chalk, especially in the SEC, but Ole Miss is bad, and Georgia has lost to what looks like 2 excellent teams. Richt REALLY needs some big wins to save his job, so I don't see him calling off the Dawgs in this one....POW for me so far. 
Love this game as well. There is also a lot going on behind the scenes at Ole Miss right now that really makes me like this game even more. A group of concerned alumni took out full page ads in all of the major newspapers in MS and TN calling for the President, AD and Nutt to be fired. I have heard they are actually considering firing Nutt mid-season, but don't have a good interim head coach candidate. The AD even went so far as to attend the press conference this week and spoke before Nutt and said he was disappointed with the program and promised change. This all may not come to fruition, but it is a HUGE distraction for the coaches and players.
|
|
quote |
|
ryan8186 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 785
Location: Kentucky |
#29 Posted: 9/20/2011 1:38:59 PM
Go Gators! |
|
quote |
|
bookieassassin |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4572
Location: Texas |
#30 Posted: 9/20/2011 1:56:13 PM
09/18 6:02pm FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-11 -110 KEN+11 -110 43 -110 43 -110
09/18 6:12pm FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-13 -110 KEN+13 -110 43 -110 43 -110
09/18 6:59pm FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-13.5 -110 KEN+13.5 -110 43 -110 43 -110
09/18 7:00pm FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-14 -110 KEN+14 -110 43 -110 43 -110
09/18 7:07pm FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-16 -110 KEN+16 -110 43 -110 43 -110
09/19 12:05am FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-17 -110 KEN+17 -110 43 -110 43 -110
09/19 11:13am FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-17.5 -110 KEN+17.5 -110 43 -110 43 -110
09/19 3:18pm FLA-1100 KEN+800 FLA-19 -110 KEN+19 -110 43 -110 43 -110
|
|
quote |
|
|
|
TRAIN69 |
RSI  |
Legend
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 30035
Location: Missouri |
#31 Posted: 9/20/2011 2:43:22 PM |
|
quote |
|
Ice4Blood |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 11089
Location: |
#32 Posted: 9/20/2011 3:29:59 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin: Boise now -32'.......  Vegas > "I dare you to bet Boise here"......> numbers say line should be 23-24 ish
if anything, i'd say the books are daring you to take Tulsa...
|
|
quote |
|
DoubleUp4Life |
RSI |
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 30642
Location: New York |
#33 Posted: 9/20/2011 4:31:52 PM 
[/Quote]
Plenty of those Early  Vegas Lines are only around for a select amount of bettors....
I try not to put much stock into Why Lines move ..... "That's what they do"....
I Know every capper  has trends and their own way of Betting CFB.....
THanks alot for putting this thread together ...
|
|
quote |
|
vi3t4lif3 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 336
Location: |
#34 Posted: 9/20/2011 5:03:41 PM Tulsa should be the right play
Open line 27 and Current 32.5
90% Boise and 10% Tulsa
Florida should be the right play
Open line 11 and Current 19.5
98% Fl and 2% KY
The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough.
|
|
quote |
|
Handicapper33 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1717
Location: Nevada |
#35 Posted: 9/20/2011 5:40:27 PM  |
|
quote |
|
catera123 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 1170
Location: Georgia |
#36 Posted: 9/20/2011 6:09:33 PM  nice |
|
quote |
|
bookieassassin |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4572
Location: Texas |
#37 Posted: 9/20/2011 6:20:49 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: Originally Posted by bookieassassin] anybody fess up to being on the other side ...of more than a couple?......
[/Quote]
Plenty of those Early Vegas Lines are only around for a select amount of bettors....
I try not to put much stock into Why Lines move ..... "That's what they do"....
I Know every capper has trends and their own way of Betting CFB.....
THanks alot for putting this thread together ...
naw I don't worry about line movement much....just to help predict when a number will be where I want it
*just posted as a topic of interest kinda
* like it or not....the earliest movement is mainly due to professional wagering ....there are guys that are pretty damn good at this.....Vegas uses their early "opinion"....to help tighten things up...
|
|
quote |
|
Handicapper33 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1717
Location: Nevada |
#38 Posted: 9/21/2011 11:45:21 AM |
|
quote |
|
shark_apreza |
RSI |
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 12067
Location: Portugal |
#39 Posted: 9/21/2011 2:55:33 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vi3t4lif3: Tulsa should be the right play
Open line 27 and Current 32.5
90% Boise and 10% Tulsa
Florida should be the right play
Open line 11 and Current 19.5
98% Fl and 2% KY
The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough.
SO U BET WITH TRENDS and garbage like that ..when speaking about boise of course---well actually Boise is teh right bet even if the band wagon is full ----- Home Opener ---Tulsa with out best players ----- the correct bet here is --- BS 1H Over ---BS game spread and Over
|
|
quote |
|
shark_apreza |
RSI |
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 12067
Location: Portugal |
#40 Posted: 9/21/2011 2:57:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vi3t4lif3: Tulsa should be the right play
Open line 27 and Current 32.5
90% Boise and 10% Tulsa
Florida should be the right play
Open line 11 and Current 19.5
98% Fl and 2% KY
The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough.
|
|
quote |
|
shark_apreza |
RSI |
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 12067
Location: Portugal |
#41 Posted: 9/21/2011 2:58:14 PM |
|
|
|
| as a favorite of 31 or more points | 0-0 | 7-3 | 13-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 8-8 | 0-0 | 10-0 | 21-0 | | in all games | 2-0 | 20-8 | 99-53 | 1-1 | 13-14 | 44-52 | 2-0 | 28-1 | 140-32 | | against Conference USA opponents | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 5-2 | | when playing on a Saturday | 1-0 | 11-3 | 69-39 | 1-0 | 7-6 | 23-29 | 1-0 | 15-0 | 102-24 | | in games played on turf | 2-0 | 13-7 | 62-36 | 1-1 | 7-12 | 28-37 | 2-0 | 20-1 | 95-16 | | in September games | 2-0 | 8-1 | 26-16 | 1-1 | 6-3 | 11-14 | 2-0 | 9-0 | 37-15 | | in non-conference games | 2-0 | 10-2 | 37-22 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 16-22 | 2-0 | 13-0 | 54-20 | | after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins | 0-0 | 13-7 | 68-34 | 0-0 | 10-10 | 34-39 | 0-0 | 20-1 | 95-13 | | in all lined games | 2-0 | 20-8 | 99-53 | 1-1 | 13-14 | 44-52 | 2-0 | 27-1 | 129-26 | | as a favorite | 2-0 | 18-8 | 79-43 | 1-1 | 12-13 | 37-42 | 2-0 | 25-1 | 115-9 | | in home games | 0-0 | 7-5 | 49-23 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 19-23 | 0-0 | 13-0 | 79-6 | | in home lined games | 0-0 | 7-5 | 49-23 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 19-23 | 0-0 | 12-0 | 68-5 | | in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 9-7 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 17-0 |
|
|
quote |
|
vi3t4lif3 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 336
Location: |
#42 Posted: 9/21/2011 3:02:09 PM shark_apreza, people bet on games from different angle, and for me line movement, betting trend, and ats etc.... and it works well for me shark_apreza. I prove it to you on Sat with my pick. I will post it before game start.
Everyone bet from a different angle.
 shark_apreza
|
|
quote |
|
shark_apreza |
RSI |
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 12067
Location: Portugal |
#43 Posted: 9/21/2011 3:22:54 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vi3t4lif3: shark_apreza, people bet on games from different angle, and for me line movement, betting trend, and ats etc.... and it works well for me shark_apreza. I prove it to you on Sat with my pick. I will post it before game start.
Everyone bet from a different angle.
shark_apreza
|
|
quote |
|
wirelessjava |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 287
Location: |
#44 Posted: 9/21/2011 3:36:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:  |
|
quote |
|
Professional1 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 36470
Location: California |
#45 Posted: 9/22/2011 12:28:08 PM
|
|
quote |
|
bookieassassin |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4572
Location: Texas |
#46 Posted: 9/22/2011 1:51:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Handicapper33:
bookie I am on Miami Fl this week; what do you see in Kstate that makes you believe they can play with Miami on the road; Kstate has played less than anyone. They can't pass the ball AT ALL; they should have lost to Eastern Kentucky at home winning in the 4th by 3; beat Kent State; but they rely on running game and Miami is starting to get back to where they used to be esp with talent. They will shutdown that running attack and after beating Ohio State and Harris back they should dominate Kstate. Kstate is nowhere close to where they were 10 years ago and have average talent at best. Miami will stack the box and make them pass which means turnovers. Eastern Kentucky gave them a run for their money at Kstate and now face a Miami team coming off a big win looking to get back into the national scene. What are you seeing??
won't play K St.....just a bad spot (maybe) for a weak home favorite (8-14 ATS) coming off HUGE game...vs a solid road dog (9-3 ATS)....that is playing it's biggest game so far TY...
Canes do only have Bethune-Cookman wtf on deck....and KSU should have issues moving the ball...
but laying 2 TD's or so here seems risky to me....
UNDER....might be worthwhile
|
|
quote |
|
vi3t4lif3 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 336
Location: |
#47 Posted: 9/25/2011 4:54:19 PM Tulsa should be the right play
Open line 27 and Current 32.5
90% Boise and 10% Tulsa
Florida should be the right play
Open line 11 and Current 19.5
98% Fl and 2% KY
The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough. |
|
quote |