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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: wednesdays opening day garbage
LanceLogan send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#1
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:48:54 PM

Gonna start the season playing the side and the total, both for 1 unit.

Mariners @ 1.74- You already know that Felix has a 14-3 lifetime record vs the A's. But did you know the M's have won 5 straight season openers, last 2 vs the A's. The A's haven't won season opener since 2004.

Over 7 @ 2.05- You do know that the Tokyo Dome is a indoor stadium don't you, no wind, perfect playing conditions. I looked up the dimensions,, center 400.3 ft, right/left 328.1 ft. These dimensions are similar to that of the Reds ballpark which is considered a hitters park. Did you know but the A's and M's have to darn with more exhibition games on saturday? That makes me think that maybe the starters won't be pushed, 6 or 7 innings maybe. I'm ignoring last years stats in this one, both sides added a bat or 2 in the offseason and I'm looking for some runs when the bullpens takes over to send this over the total.

Good luck people, later

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#2
Posted: 3/27/2012 9:15:27 PM
GL Tomorrow, with ya on the Mariners, other side of the total, though you bring up good points about the dome. 
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#3
Posted: 3/27/2012 10:36:33 PM
If this game was played in Seattle it would be at night in cold and damp conditions, Oakland a a few degrees warmer maybe, the line is typically 7 in these matchups, how can a indoor neutral site game no be at least a 1/2 run higher? I also think it will  be as loud as hell anytime Ichiro or Suzuki steps up to the plate, mayb e the batters will be more motivated than the pitchers to put on a show. It's not like the dome will be full of Brandon McCarthy fans in A's jerseys there to see their boy pitch a shutout.
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KeyElement
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#4
Posted: 3/27/2012 10:58:33 PM
Interesting view Lance, but his game counts in the standings and neither team will give a crap about Saturday. Hernandez, strikeout and ground ball pitcher. McCarthy, 4.92:1 K/BB ratio, 1.13:1 GB/FB ratio and 0.58 per 9 HR's. If it it don't get up, it don't get out, and it won't matter if it is in a dome with short fences under ideal conditions. And in Seattle or Oakland you would see 6.5, possibly 6. You may get there but it probably won't be easy. 
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#5
Posted: 3/27/2012 11:04:11 PM
Good luck Lance!
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#6
Posted: 3/27/2012 11:08:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Interesting view Lance, but his game counts in the standings and neither team will give a crap about Saturday. Hernandez, strikeout and ground ball pitcher. McCarthy, 4.92:1 K/BB ratio, 1.13:1 GB/FB ratio and 0.58 per 9 HR's. If it it don't get up, it don't get out, and it won't matter if it is in a dome with short fences under ideal conditions. And in Seattle or Oakland you would see 6.5, possibly 6. You may get there but it probably won't be easy. 



agreed. When you consider the starting pitchers and the lineups, this would definitely be 6 or 6.5 were it in the States.
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#7
Posted: 3/27/2012 11:12:20 PM

Last year there were 6 over/unders of 6.5, 7 was the norm. I would argue that with Bailey gone the A's pen is a little weaker and more saves might be blown. With the addition of Montero the M's offence has nowhere to go but up. Last april I got killed making plays based on stats and trends from the year before. This april i'm taking a differnt aproach. That being said the line on the over is even money now on bet365, which means i'm not the only one that thinks this.

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#8
Posted: 3/27/2012 11:24:09 PM
,gL
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#9
Posted: 3/28/2012 12:02:05 AM
good luck this season lance. kill it man
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#10
Posted: 3/28/2012 12:08:24 AM
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#11
Posted: 3/28/2012 12:35:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan:

Last year there were 6 over/unders of 6.5, 7 was the norm.



What? That's not true. There were a lot of totals set at 6.5 or lower in the AL West and NL West.
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#12
Posted: 3/28/2012 12:43:06 AM

That was the norm in the A's vs M's games, slow down a bit when you read.

Was surfing around and found that the total opened at 9.5, sharps pounded it down to 7,,,,,interesting.

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#13
Posted: 3/28/2012 1:55:49 AM

with you on the over

bol

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#14
Posted: 3/28/2012 5:26:01 AM
whats up buddy ?  Baseball is back
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#15
Posted: 3/28/2012 5:33:26 AM
BOL
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#16
Posted: 3/28/2012 7:06:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan:

That was the norm in the A's vs M's games, slow down a bit when you read.

Was surfing around and found that the total opened at 9.5, sharps pounded it down to 7,,,,,interesting.



A) I read what you wrote, and nowhere did you mention specifically A's/M's games.

B)Where did you see total opening at 9.5? Hard to believe a book would open themselves up like that.
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#17
Posted: 3/28/2012 7:43:52 AM
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#18
Posted: 3/28/2012 8:41:41 AM

a lil late lancy but good luck... tied in 10th

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#19
Posted: 3/28/2012 9:05:12 AM
Good luck this season
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#20
Posted: 3/28/2012 9:44:13 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by yisman:



A) I read what you wrote, and nowhere did you mention specifically A's/M's games.

B)Where did you see total opening at 9.5? Hard to believe a book would open themselves up like that.

 

On the matchup page and a preview on another site. 3-1 M's,,,,should of just stuck to the side.

I'm not even gonna look at a Vargas/Colon matchup,, see ya next week.

 

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#21
Posted: 3/28/2012 10:32:14 AM

darn it a preseason play

Cardninals @ 1.86- With Wainwright on the mound and a full line up starting I can't help but not play this vs a Tigers team that seams to have lost interest in spring training with a rookie lefty on the mound Drew Smyly and damn near all backups.

good luck today to the true degenerates

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#22
Posted: 3/28/2012 1:09:14 PM

Chop/Chop on Opening Night, L'z.  Good garbage...

 

Back to the well on the *OVER* tonight??  I'm on it... 


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#23
Posted: 3/28/2012 1:14:54 PM
Will be looking for your Oak/Sea pick as we get closer to gametime!
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#24
Posted: 3/28/2012 1:46:44 PM
I'm willing to bet that if Felix faces McCarthy again, the total will be lower than 7.

Additionally, I checked the odds history of the game, and it actually opened slightly LOWER than where it closed (7, but with the under more heavily favored) so whatever site said it opened at 9.5 is wrong.
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