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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: RJ89's April MLB Picks
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RJ89
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Posted: 4/5/2012 2:25:39 AM

I’ll be posting all my picks for April in this thread.

April 5

No Plays: I just don't feel too strongly about any of the lines today.

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Posted: 4/5/2012 2:27:52 AM

Here are my final futures to begin the season.

Colorodo Rockies Over 81.5 (-110)   2 Units

Colorado to win the NL West +625   1 Units

Toronto Over 82.5 (-120) 2 Units

Cleveland Under 78.5 (+100) 2 Units

San Diego Over 73.5 (-120) 2 Units

 

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Posted: 4/6/2012 12:58:24 AM

Friday April 6

San Diego (-125)  1 Unit

Luebke is relatively unknown, but he had an excellent finish to the season, and is clearly the superior pitcher in this matchup. Billingsley struggled with control all of last year, and didn’t show many positive signs this spring. The Padres have what I feel to be an underrated lineup after several guys really underperformed last season, and Alonso should prove to be a great pickup. I also like the RLM so far, as 63% are on the Dodgers, but the line at Pinnacle has moved from -113 to -130.

I’m also looking at Tex Over 9.5 and Oakland, but I will probably stick to this play.

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Posted: 4/6/2012 9:11:44 PM
Saturday April 7
 
Detroit -108   1 Unit
 
Detroit has several advantages in this game. Fister really improved to finish the year, and appears to be in good form right now, while Beckett has been bothered by his thumb recently. While Beckett had a good ERA in the spring he also had a poor K:BB ratio of 10:8, so that could be another sign he isn't at 100%. Even if the RedSox have a lead late in the game, they will likely struggle to close it out. Both of their closing candidates looked weak, and I expect it to be an issue for them as long as Bailey is out.
 
 
Minnesota -102  1 Unit
 
This bet is based entirely on Liriano. He has elite ability when he is healthy and at the top of his game, both of which appear to be the case right now.
 
 
Toronto +100  1 Unit
 
I think Morrow is going to surprise people this year. He has looked solid in spring and said that he plans on mixing a lot more offspeed pitches. This could help him have quicker at-bats, and go deeper into games. While Ubaldo should improve his awful year, I also feel that people tend to overestimate Ubaldo's abilities. He did not look too impressive this spring and may be somewhat distracted by his suspension. Add in Toronto's big hitting advantage and they should get the win.
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Posted: 4/8/2012 2:00:22 AM

Record: 2-2  -0.27 Units

Sunday April 8

Colorado -134  1 Unit

Texas -180   1 Unit

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Posted: 4/9/2012 12:50:34 AM

Record 3-3  -0.61 Units

Monday April 9

Colorado/ SF Over 9 -125  1 Unit

Toronto -120  1 Unit

Miami +140   1 Unit

 

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Posted: 4/9/2012 12:35:53 PM

Adding:

Miami/ Philadelphia Under 3.5 First 5 Inns   1 Unit

Oakland/ KC Under 4 First 5 Inns   1 Unit

LAA -160   1 Unit

 

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Posted: 4/9/2012 7:24:17 PM

Updated Record: 6-4   +1.54 Units

Miami +140  

Miami/ Philadelphia Under 3.5 First 5 Inns  

LAA -160    

Colorado/ SF Over 9 -125 

The Colorado game was disgusting. I figured they could at least get 3 runs off Zito and that neither team would score after the 5th. Hoping to finish the night well.

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Posted: 4/10/2012 2:08:33 AM

Record: 7-5   +1.34 Units

Miami +140

Miami/ Philadelphia Under 3.5 First 5 Inns

LAA -160

Colorado/ SF Over 9 -125

Oakland/ KC Under 4 First 5 Inns 

Toronto -120 1 Unit 

Easy winner with the Oakland under, and tough loss with Toronto blowing the save.. Second time in two days blowing a lead after the 7th.

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Posted: 4/10/2012 2:46:20 AM

Tampa Bay/ Detroit Over 8.5   1 Unit

Matt Moore should eventually be a stud, but he hasn’t been overly impressive in ST and has been known to struggle in April in the minors. Going on the road against one of the best offenses in the league, probably won’t be the best way for him to start the year. On the other side, the Rays seem to be hitting well and shouldn’t have much trouble scoring off Porcello.

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