Posted: 4/6/2012 9:11:44 PM
Saturday April 7
Detroit -108 1 Unit
Detroit has several advantages in this game. Fister really improved to finish the year, and appears to be in good form right now, while Beckett has been bothered by his thumb recently. While Beckett had a good ERA in the spring he also had a poor K:BB ratio of 10:8, so that could be another sign he isn't at 100%. Even if the RedSox have a lead late in the game, they will likely struggle to close it out. Both of their closing candidates looked weak, and I expect it to be an issue for them as long as Bailey is out.
Minnesota -102 1 Unit
This bet is based entirely on Liriano. He has elite ability when he is healthy and at the top of his game, both of which appear to be the case right now.
Toronto +100 1 Unit
I think Morrow is going to surprise people this year. He has looked solid in spring and said that he plans on mixing a lot more offspeed pitches. This could help him have quicker at-bats, and go deeper into games. While Ubaldo should improve his awful year, I also feel that people tend to overestimate Ubaldo's abilities. He did not look too impressive this spring and may be somewhat distracted by his suspension. Add in Toronto's big hitting advantage and they should get the win.