| Author: |
[MLB Betting] Topic: Toronto Over 82.5 and Colorado Over 81.5 |
|
RJ89 |
 View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 538
Location: |
#1 Posted: 4/1/2012 11:56:58 PM Colorodo Rockies Over 81.5 (-110)
Colorado to win the NL West +625
After the additions of Scutaro and Cuddyer, there is an argument that they now have the best lineup in the NL, and I would say it is definitely the best in the division. After losing Ubaldo (who was awful for them last year), their pitching staff is full of no names and a 49 year old, but actually isn't quite as terrible as it seems. Chacin should be good if he gets his stuff together. Pomeranz (who should get ~170 innings) and Nicasio both have a ton of potential. They have both had solid springs, and have shown solid K/BB ratios in the minors. With those 3, their pitching staff could end up being "average" which would be good enough to get them into the playoffs. I see the Rockies winning ~86 games and a tight three way race (between them, Arizona, and SF) and because of that there is also value on them winning the division.
Toronto Over 82.5 (-120)
Toronto showed great signs last year and should improve this year in hitting and pitching. With Lawrie now a permanent member of the lineup and everyone healthy right now, you can make a legitimate case that they have the strongest lineup in the division. Also Ricky Romero should get some help in the rotation this year. If Morrow even halfway lives up to his peripheral stats, he should have a decent year, and Henderson Alvarez has the profile to be a solid 3rd option. The rest of their rotation is blech, but Hutchinson will be a solid callup later in the year. Their bullpen is also improved after picking up Santos (who has elite closer ability if he can keep his walks down) and Cordero. Add everything up, and even though they are playing in the toughest division, I have them winning 87+ games and having an outside shot at winning the division. |
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#2 Posted: 4/2/2012 12:10:50 AM I agree with both, the Rocks pitching staff will get a boost in june when De La Rosa returns, maybe Guthrie has a career year dealing with SF and SD batters instead of NY and Boston batters.
|
|
quote |
|
BarcsHasBite |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Veteran
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 3355
Location: Ontario |
#3 Posted: 4/2/2012 12:16:57 AM
|
|
quote |
|
RJ89 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 538
Location: |
#4 Posted: 4/2/2012 12:30:38 AM QUOTEThanks, yeah, I can't believe I forgot to mention JDLR. They would have a sneaky good top 4 with him in there. I'm not sold on Guthrie at all, but I guess there is a chance for him to do well.. Even if he doesn't, I still like the bet.
Originally Posted by LanceLogan:
I agree with both, the Rocks pitching staff will get a boost in june when De La Rosa returns, maybe Guthrie has a career year dealing with SF and SD batters instead of NY and Boston batters.
|
|
quote |
|
RJ89 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 538
Location: |
#5 Posted: 4/2/2012 12:40:17 AM Leans :
Boston Under 90.5 (-130)
I just feel their lineup has a ton of question marks.. A-Gon and Ortiz should regress some, Crawford will be bothered by his wrist for the forseeable future, can Youkilis stay healthy?.. Their rotation is weak after Lester and Beckett, and chronically injured Bailey is a step down from Papelbon as closer.
Atlanta Under 86.5 (-120)
The division is tougher now and their lineup will struggle if Heyward doesn't step forward. Their rotation has a ton of question marks as Hudson will miss the first month, Hanson and Jurrjens can never stay healthy, Beachy has an innings limit and I'm not sold on Minor as a consistent option yet.
Cleveland Under 78.5 (+100)
Not really sold on the team. They have some young hitters that will improve, but apparently Asdrubal is out of shape. Their pitching is below average, Masterson should regress some, Ubaldo should improve, but some people view too highly on him and the rest of their staff is poor. I would also not be suprised if Perez blew a few more saves this year.
LA Dodgers Under 81.5 (-140)
Last year, this team was basically Kershaw and Kemp, and I feel both should regress (especially Kemp). The rest of the team is very weak and did not do enough to improve in order to conted in an improved NL West.
Milwaukee Over 85 (-130)
Milwaukee to Win NL Central +260
Their lineup should still be productive without Fielder, and they still have the best staff in the division and a solid bullpen. The Reds have a less effective bullpen without Madson, and there is a chance Carpenter misses most of the season for the Cardinals, so I view them as the favorites in the division.
LA Angels Over 92.5 (+110)
Everyone knows about the additions of Pujols and CJ Wilson, but Morales could be almost as important. They now have what is probably the top rotation in the AL. I have them as the best team in the league and winning 96 games but this is still a high numer to bet on.
San Diego Over 73.5 (-120)
I like the addition of Alonso, and several guys in their lineup really underachieved last year. Their pitching staff won't be too bad if Volquez gains some control and Stauffer and Luebke continue last year's success.
Any opinions on these leans? |
|
quote |
|
|
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#6 Posted: 4/2/2012 12:50:37 AM Guthrie is an inning eater and with the Rocks bullpen a big question mark they will need that.
Don't underestimate the Dodgers, with new ownership taking over they may get to make moves thruout the season. Kemp is the best player in the league, full and healthy seasons from Ethier and Rivera could mean 90 rbi's from each. |
|
quote |
|
RJ89 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 538
Location: |
#7 Posted: 4/2/2012 12:58:51 AM Yeah, that's true about Guthrie.
Kemp will continue to play well, but I don't see him hitting 0.320+ with nearly 40 HR's again this year. I feel last year was a career year for him, (but then again I could be wrong.)
I'll probably just stick to the Rockies and Blue Jays since those are the ones I feel the most strongly about. |
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#8 Posted: 4/2/2012 1:29:49 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by BarcsHasBite:
Go Jamie Moyer!
No garbage!! Just read he will start the season as the # 2 starter, that dude is 49 for people sake. |
|
quote |
|
Delpo |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 1579
Location: |
#9 Posted: 4/2/2012 1:30:08 AM Where is it 82.5 ?
At my book they have it at 80.5 and it started at -110 and now has been pounded all the way to -222.
This team has lots of talent and if a few of the bigger question marks (Rasmus Bouncing back, the backend of the rotation, Lawrie being a stud over the full season) this team can certainly challenge for the division.
I personally think the starting rotation is better then some feel. I think Romero gets a little better, I think Morrow improves and takes the next step and I think Alvarez is the real deal and will be a solid/consistant #3. Sure after that it gets blurry but its not like there isnt talent and there many options over the course of the season to fill those last two spots (Cecil, Drabek, Hutchison, McGowen, Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins).
The Jays hypetrain is in full effect right now. Jayson Stark of ESPN predicted today they Jays will make the playoffs. |
|
quote |
|
RJ89 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 538
Location: |
#10 Posted: 4/2/2012 1:46:44 AM It's at 82.5 at 5Dimes.. I've definitely lost value, but I would rather have it at that then pay -222 juice.. And I still have them at 87 so I still like it.
I don't think we can expect Romero to improve on his 2.92 ERA from last year, but he will continue to be solid and suprise people. I do think Morrow and Alvarez will be solid. I don't really like a lot of their other pitchers, but I do believe in Hutchinson, who has looked great this spring and has solid numbers in the minors. I think he at least has more potential than the other guys. |
|
quote |
|
Delpo |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 1579
Location: |
#11 Posted: 4/2/2012 2:03:04 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by RJ89:
It's at 82.5 at 5Dimes.. I've definitely lost value, but I would rather have it at that then pay -222 juice.. And I still have them at 87 so I still like it.
I don't think we can expect Romero to improve on his 2.92 ERA from last year, but he will continue to be solid and suprise people. I do think Morrow and Alvarez will be solid. I don't really like a lot of their other pitchers, but I do believe in Hutchinson, who has looked great this spring and has solid numbers in the minors. I think he at least has more potential than the other guys.
I dont know why its unrealistic to think Romero can still improve. Hes only 27 and hasnt given up a single run this spring and is looking stronger then ever.
In terms of potential Drabek>Hutchison by a good margin. Theres another one of those big question marks. If Drabek can get his garbage together, he could be a pretty decent pitcher this season. |
|
quote |
|
mainmanmainman2 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 4309
Location: Antarctica |
#12 Posted: 4/2/2012 2:11:48 AM |
|
quote |
|
Bruins455 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 1123
Location: |
#13 Posted: 4/2/2012 2:26:00 AM
|
|
quote |
|
nc1capper |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
All-Star
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 14363
Location: North Carolina |
#14 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:37:55 AM yankkes over 92.5
phils under 93.5
marlins over 84.5
thats all for me so far |
|
quote |