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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Need help with NBA capping, can help with NHL (when it starts!)
Professor524 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Professor524
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#1
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:06:51 PM
I must admit when it comes to NBA I do not know much. I am a professor from Canada. I watch hockey, baseball, and football. Never got into NBA and have never bet on an NBA game.

I have since learned the rules, but when it comes to placing bets I am not sure what do look for. I know the basics but what I am looking for are some advanced stats to concentrate on.

For example in Hockey, I look for how team X plays vs. this coaches defensive system (passive box/collapsing box) etc... coupled with this teams power play last 10 games vs this teams penalty kill vs last 10, etc.. you get the idea. 

If you could provide any tips or some things to look for beyond the basic stats like shooting percentage, turnovers, steals, etc.. i'd be very grateful and can offer any "future considerations" if anyone needs help with NHL. 

Thank you,

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alangrrbs send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:57:51 PM
I bet NHL, and NBA, and imo they are completely different sports to bet on.  Yes you look for offensive and defensive stats, but you have to have been watching the NBA for years to learn how certain teams/players/coaches play/coach.

One of the hardest things you are going to have with jumping in this year is that the lockout last year created a shortened season...and that shortened season created different strategies which created different stats.  Lots of the stats last year aren't going to help with this years strategies as this year will be a standard NBA regular season.

If you are really interested in betting the NBA, I would visit this NBA forum often and look at what people are saying about teams, and players. 

If you want to start getting info immediately, there are/will be podcasts starting up soon talking about the NBA, and preseason rankings.  As much as I think a lot of the ES*N podcasts are not very valuable to gambling, the NBA Today podcast can be really good...especially when David Thorpe is on it.  They don't give gambling advice, but a lot of the guys on it are knowledgeable about the sport and can give you some info about how teams play.

My best advice is to not gamble very much on the NBA this season, and just learn as much as you can and get ready for the 2012-2013 season.  If you do want to wager on NBA games, maybe just start at 1/4 unit a bet that way you can get experience, but you also protect yourself and your bankroll. 

I'd love to get your thoughts on NHL, but at this point I don't even know if there will be games to handicap. 

GL
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ichiyuri send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 10/4/2012 6:56:55 PM
Thoughts to remember in betting the NBA:

-Respect the handicap. It's not always the better/stronger team that covers. Some (if not most) of the time, the +2.5 or +1.5 comes in handy especially during crunch time. It always happen that the game had already been decided but some idiot goes for a meaningless 3 point shot, makes it, and the game ends with just a 1 point victory.

-TNT Thursdays. I just noticed this the past couple years, but during TNT Thursdays, wherein the games are nationally televised, teams that are backed by majority of the bettors (I base this on covers.com consencus) loses. It's like, the most improbable things happen in this day. I call it the "opposite day".

-Ride teams that are hot. It's a long season, teams go hot then cold then hot then cold. You have to be wary when to back some teams when they are extremely hot, then fade them when they are superbly cold.

-Home > Away. It's very odd that some teams are so strong when they are at home, but are so damn weak when on the road. You see these teams beating the powerhouse teams when playing on their home court, but will be demolished the next game on the road by some scrub team. My ploy was, when these teams win at home against stronger teams, I will fade them on their next road game, regardless of the opponent (assuming that this team is not a "HOT" team).

-Back to back trend. Last season, this trend was not to be considered because it was a shortened season. This season, they are back to their usual 82-game schedule. It's very hard/unlikely for teams to cover both their back-to-back games. Only a handful was very good in playing decent ball 2 nights in a row. In my case, I ride the team who loses their 1st game of a back-to-back, OR fade them should they win their 1st game. This is regardless where the games are played (home or away).

-Follow great cappers here on covers forum. I've been a follower of some of the cappers here, and I always respect their opinion. I will not be naming them for it might stir something up, but if you will observe how some of the posters here, you will be able to notice which ones are "legit" cappers, and which ones are just "fad".


That said, I wish you, and everyone else, a great NBA season run. I cannot wait for this to start. MLB had been nice to me this season, and I hope to continue the run in the NBA!
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Professor524 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#4
Posted: 10/4/2012 7:49:24 PM
Thanks alangrrbs and ichiyuri, i really appreciate the time you have taken to write out your posts. Very helpful. Thank you, when NHL starts I will help in whatever way I can.

I have been research the last few hours and notice a few correlations between stats that might prove useful. I am going to back test them the last 2 seasons and see how the results fair. 

I will probably also reduce my unit sizes to 0.25 until I see a consistent profit accounting for standard variance. 

Thanks again for your help guys, 

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Professor524 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#5
Posted: 10/4/2012 7:50:57 PM
*researching :)
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Asomugha send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#6
Posted: 10/6/2012 2:50:30 PM
There wont be any NHL season, lol.
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