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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA - First Round Playoff Series Breakdowns
ApocalypseLater send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:53:30 AM
Grizzlies are toast!

otherwise, looking good so far...
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#77
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:50:03 AM
I know I said I'd cautiously side with Memphis but after further analysis I ended up putting a future in on the Clippers to win the series. I started a thread yesterday with that play and subsequent write-up. Needless to say, that comeback was awesome!

The only game I was way off on was Orlando/Indiana. I'm hoping that the Pacers just took the Howardless Magic not as seriously as they should and that loss will act as a wake up call. I'd still be surprised to see Orlando win this series without the best center in the NBA.

The same doesn't go for Chicago. They'll still get past Philly. Incredibly Rose is only worth 3.3 points to the Bulls. They still have the tolerance to beat them 76ers without him.
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#78
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:26:53 PM
***UPDATE***

Rajon Rondo SUSPENDED for game 2

When Rondo is off the court the Celtics power ranking drops 4.70 points.  The projected spread for Atlanta home games is thus adjusted from ATL -6.59 to ATL -11.29.

Rondo has a bigger impact on the total.  Here are the Celtics projected Points For (PF) and Points Against (PA) when Rondo is ON versus OFF the court:

PF:  96.91  >>>  89.44  (Net: -7.47)
PA:  93.68  >>>  90.92  (Net:  -2.76)

The projected total of 172.46 should therefor be adjusted down 10.23 points to 162.23.


Projected line and total for game 2 (without Rondo):

Atlanta Hawks:  -11.29     /     Total:  162.23
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#79
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:05:44 PM
The first series is in the books.  Let's look at how accurate my model was.


PREDICTION:

OKC in 5 games
AVG Total:  195.41
AVG Score:  OKC -5.51

RESULT:

OKC in 4 games
AVG Total:  193
AVG Score:  OKC -6.5

ACCURACY CHECK:

Series winner:  Yes
AVG Total:  +2.41 (98.7% accuracy)
AVG Score:  -0.99 (84.8% accuracy)



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#80
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:07:08 AM
Nice!
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#81
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:09:56 AM
Looks like Heat sweeps and Sixers should close out Bulls soon.  Spurs looking good.  Clips and Grizz will be tough.
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#82
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:13:32 AM
good stuff
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#83
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:14:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Looks like Heat sweeps and Sixers should close out Bulls soon.  Spurs looking good.  Clips and Grizz will be tough.

Heat isn't surprising me with how good they are as much as New York is surprising me with how bad they're playing.  They're scoring far fewer points than I predicted.  The Heat are right around their number.

Sixers won't beat the Bulls.  Bulls still take the series, but it'll take longer than I thought obviously thanks to Rose's injury.  Bulls in 6-7 games.
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#84
Posted: 5/8/2012 8:12:35 PM
Utah vs San Antonio Series completed.  Here are the results versus the model.  Couple notes:  the Spurs won this series with their defense - they're playing great on both ends of the court.  Utah looked gassed - they were definitely fatigued after their run to end the season.


PREDICTION:

SAS in 5 games
AVG Total:  203.45
AVG Score:  SAS -4.01

RESULT:

SAS in 4 games
AVG Total:  188.5
AVG Score:  SAS -16

ACCURACY CHECK:

Series winner:  Yes
AVG Total:  +14.95 (92.7% accuracy)
AVG Score:  -11.99 (25.1% accuracy)

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#85
Posted: 5/8/2012 8:16:53 PM
Great stuff this year.  Looking forward to more as we transition to the semis.
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#86
Posted: 5/8/2012 10:00:22 PM
Indiana vs. Orlando finished.  Results:


PREDICTION:

IND in 4-5 games
AVG Total:  190.57
AVG Score:  IND -7.39

RESULT:

IND in 5 games
AVG Total:  178.4
AVG Score:  IND -10.8

ACCURACY CHECK:

Series winner:  Yes
AVG Total:  +12.17 (93.6% accuracy)
AVG Score:  -3.41 (68.4% accuracy)
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#87
Posted: 5/12/2012 10:40:37 AM
Si1ly, are you going to have 2nd round series breakdowns available?  Great job on the first round predictions!  Definitely very helpful.
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#88
Posted: 5/12/2012 1:16:31 PM
Thank you for all your hard work!!  I'll be tailing the next set of series.

   
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